Does Size Matter?

[MCI transplant]

Fortunately for AF, BA, and SIA, there's a certain percentage of customers who won't consider transiting via the Gulf these days, regardless of the fare difference. Even though they get great service rankings, that includes Emirates.

Personally, I think the AirPig is another Concorde -- Airbus built it as a prestige aircraft to one-up Boeing, and not because there was a huge market for it. If more than 120 wind up in passenger operation, I'll be shocked.

[post="240869"][/post]​

<_< I read somewhere they have to sell at least 250 of them just to break even! :huh:

 

[mweiss]

I'd expect its biggest market to be cargo anyway...if 120 end up in passenger service, they shouldn't have trouble getting to 250 including freighters.

Let's not forget how close the 747 came to bankrupting Boeing.

 

[whlinder]

777-200LR would be my guess to AA's next big plane order... though I doubt they will want many of them. I think the ultra-long range capabilities of the 777-200LR and the A340-500 will have more of an effect on aviation than the A380 will.

 

[Hopeful]

777-200LR would be my guess to AA's next big plane order... though I doubt they will want many of them. I think the ultra-long range capabilities of the 777-200LR and the A340-500 will have more of an effect on aviation than the A380 will.

[post="240895"][/post]​

Thanks to paycuts and other concessions, I don't see why AA doesn't eventually order the 7E7, since the A300's will one day be gone.

 

[Winglet]

The problem is American Airlines hasn't decided on what kind of airline it wants to be. Until Arpey and the BOD decides that, the airline will continue to drift in the storm.

 

[eolesen]

The problem is American Airlines hasn't decided on what kind of airline it wants to be. Until Arpey and the BOD decides that, the airline will continue to drift in the storm.

[post="240947"][/post]​

We're drifting? Based on the 4Q04 and 2004 financials, it's pretty clear that we're one of the few carriers making headway, little it may be. Strip away the special items, and DL's operating loss for 4Q is more than AA's operating loss for the full year. NW's loss is almost the same as AA's, and they're half the size.

We're not going to be out buying any new airplanes for a while. For those of us here in the 90's, it was the same situation. That's not drifting -- it's just reality. There's nothing wrong with flying a 20 year old aircraft, provided you maintain it, which I have to say we do a pretty good job of doing. Totally off topic, but our used aircraft rarely get scrapped -- someone almost always is willing to buy and operate them again.

Back to the topic.... and to maybe prove that we're not just drifting....

From yesterday's USA Today:

American Airlines doubtful about Airbus A380
NEW YORK (AFP) — A top American Airlines executive expressed doubts Wednesday on the merits of Airbus A380, unveiled this week in France with great fanfare.
The world's biggest jumbo jet to be produced by the European consortium "doesn't really fit with the way we see the world market in the future," said James Beer, chief financial officer of American Airlines parent AMR during a conference call.

Asked about the Boeing 7E7 "Dreamliner," the U.S. manufacturer's smaller, more economical aircraft, Beer said the airline had no near-term plans to buy any but that it was "clearly a long-term possibility."

Full story...

On the earnings call Wednesday, Beer also commented on the deferral of our remaining 737 and 777 deliveries. Not only is this going to save us hundreds of millions in the immediate term, when asked by one of the analysts, he said that these could possibly be converted into 7E7 deliveries if we wanted to go that direction.

 

[FWAAA]

In the November analysts' conference, Arpey revealed that while AA was interested in the 7E7, AA's interest would be in the stretch version (7E7-9), not the standard 7E7-8.

At the time, the Boeing website said the stretch version was expected to enter service about 2010, depending on customer demand. Today, the Boeing website stretches the timeframe to about 2012, depending on customer demand.

What I found interesting about Arpey's comment is that it represents a departure for AA from past practices: AA jumped on the 762 (before buying plenty of 763s) and has loaded up on 772s (and may never order any 773s).

Same with 727s a long time ago; AA bought 727-100s before ordering a slew of 727-200s.

But in this case AA's CEO has already strongly hinted no interest in the smaller 7E7. Of course that could change.

 

[Oneflyer]

AA jumped on the 762 (before buying plenty of 763s) and has loaded up on 772s (and may never order any 773s).

Same with 727s a long time ago; AA bought 727-100s before ordering a slew of 727-200s.

But in this case AA's CEO has already strongly hinted no interest in the smaller 7E7. Of course that could change.

I fail to see how what AA did in the 60's and 70's is relavent, other than to prove that AA seems to be learning from its mistakes.

 

[FWAAA]

I fail to see how what AA did in the 60's and 70's is relavent, other than to prove that AA seems to be learning from its mistakes.

[post="241118"][/post]​

Exactly my point. Rather than quicky commit to a couple dozen smaller 7E7s and then later on order 40-50 of the stretch version (as AA has done several times throughout its history with other new airplane models), management may have learned from those earlier mistakes. B)

 

[777 fixer]

I agree, but I think that AA is adding only ONE row of coach to about half the 777 fleet (those already featuring the Flagship Suites in F).

On about half the 777s, the conversion of the F coffins to the Flagship Suite will cost two F seats (from 18 down to 16) plus a row of Business. And two rows of coach will be added, as the FS version of the 777 has already featured more coach rows than the Coffin equipped planes.

[post="240532"][/post]​

AA is removing a Biz class row from the Pacific configured 777 so they are common with the Atlantic 777. As fro first class as far as I know there are no plans currently to change the configuration of either fleet.

 

[mwa]

don't forget the Crandall dictum "you cannot make money with a 4 engine airplane."

 

[Whadayano]

Given Continental's equally shaky position I wonder if BA offerred them some spiffs to get them to take some 757-300's and '37-800's early, and to commit to 10 of the 7E7's? Or maybe it was to try and get the pilots to go along with cuts by saying "some of you will be able to move up, offsetting some of the cuts?" And was AMR offerred a similar deal do you think?

 

[TechBoy]

Given Continental's equally shaky position I wonder if BA offerred them some spiffs to get them to take some 757-300's and '37-800's early, and to commit to 10 of the 7E7's? Or maybe it was to try and get the pilots to go along with cuts by saying "some of you will be able to move up, offsetting some of the cuts?" And was AMR offerred a similar deal do you think?

[post="241361"][/post]​

I'm sure that CO drove a hard bargain in both cases, but I think that the 7E7 order is necessary for them. Their widebody fleet is small, which limits their ability to expand international ops at EWR. They have done a good job opening up long, thin routes with 757ERs, but at some point the market will grow enough to support larger aircraft and CO will need more widebodies. The international routes out of EWR have got to be the crown jewels of CO.

 

[eolesen]

What I found interesting about Arpey's comment is that it represents a departure for AA from past practices: AA jumped on the 762 (before buying plenty of 763s) and has loaded up on 772s (and may never order any 773s).

Same with 727s a long time ago; AA bought 727-100s before ordering a slew of 727-200s.

[post="240984"][/post]​

Out of fairness, you have to admit that there wasn't any plan for a 727-200 stretch until the 727 had been out for several years. I also don't recall Boeing ever talking about the 763 until the mid-1980's, about five years after the first 762's were delivered. It was even longer for the 753 -- 15 years or more after the first 752s were delivered to Eastern.

But your comments are still valid with regard to the 777 -- Boeing had been marketing the "A" model 777-200, and as UAL found out, it may as well be called the 777-100, since it has about 65% of the -200ER's range... They're good for domestic flying (i.e. Hawaii), and intra-Asian flying, but really don't have the range to do anything farther than LAX-NRT or LAX-LHR.