East Over 60 Pilots as of November

[BoeingBoy]

Given that the most of the Capt's on the east (Not including 190's, give or take a bit for bidding preferences) was hired pre 1988, and assuming that they were around 30 years old (some younger some older) it is safe to assume that almost all of the current captains will be gone in the next nine years on the east side.

I'm too lazy to pull out my East seniority and get the active numbers, but I assume at least 500 of the 1749 will be out on medical, so call it 1250 or fewer active retirements through 2020. Given that the bottom non-E190 captains are in the 2200-2300 range now, but that every active pilot senior to the bottom captains isn't a captain, let's call it 1700-1800 captains now (a guess on my part really). So very roughly, about 2/3 of current captains will be retired by 2020.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the 6 year hiring surge at PI is responsible for the increased retirements after about 2016, but total US hiring slowed dramatically starting in 1991 - stopping after the mid-91 furloughs for a number of years and never returning to those levels unless growth causes more hiring in the future. So that surge is a relatively short-term phenomenon, not something that continues as far as the eye can see.

Jim

 

[Keroseneuser]

I'm too lazy to pull out my East seniority and get the active numbers, but I assume at least 500 of the 1749 will be out on medical, so call it 1250 or fewer active retirements through 2020. Given that the bottom non-E190 captains are in the 2200-2300 range now, but that every active pilot senior to the bottom captains isn't a captain, let's call it 1700-1800 captains now (a guess on my part really). So very roughly, about 2/3 of current captains will be retired by 2020.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the 6 year hiring surge at PI is responsible for the increased retirements after about 2016, but total US hiring slowed dramatically starting in 1991 - stopping after the mid-91 furloughs for a number of years and never returning to those levels unless growth causes more hiring in the future. So that surge is a relatively short-term phenomenon, not something that continues as far as the eye can see.

Jim

The data I have runs to 2025.

Total East retires now till 2025 2728 of 3400 Only 672 of current list will still be around then.

Total West retires till 2025 785, 785 of 1800 is it? 1015 current west left then.

If somehow this mess continues till then. In 2025 the roughly 1400 East captains, 728 of them have not been hired yet.

For the west assuming same 50/50 ratio 900 captains, all year 2025 Capts are already here, 115 of current west pilots will still be f/o.

 

[prechilill]

The data I have runs to 2025.

Total East retires now till 2025 2728 of 3400 Only 672 of current list will still be around then.

Total West retires till 2025 785, 785 of 1800 is it? 1015 current west left then.

If somehow this mess continues till then. In 2025 the roughly 1400 East captains, 728 of them have not been hired yet.

For the west assuming same 50/50 ratio 900 captains, all year 2025 Capts are already here, 115 of current west pilots will still be f/o.

Your analysis is flawed (limited).
Everyone knows the east has an average age which is about 5 years higher than the west. Run the same numbers for year 2030 and your "analysis" will look much different.

 

[BoeingBoy]

The data I have runs to 2025.

Total East retires now till 2025 2728 of 3400 Only 672 of current list will still be around then.

Total West retires till 2025 785, 785 of 1800 is it? 1015 current west left then.

If somehow this mess continues till then. In 2025 the roughly 1400 East captains, 728 of them have not been hired yet.

For the west assuming same 50/50 ratio 900 captains, all year 2025 Capts are already here, 115 of current west pilots will still be f/o.

That sounds about right. If we call until 2016 or so the short term, from then to 2020 the medium term, and beyond 2020 the long term, the mid-term surge in retirements will change the East-West ratio in East's favor and that won't disappear in the long term but will go up and down based on the hiring cycles of the East. the ratio will drop because of East's lack of hiring in the 90's, then increase for a couple of years when the late 90's hires start retiring, but decrease again because of no East hiring till 2007. After that, which is out beyond 2025 by a number of years, it depends on which side is hiring proportionally more if integration hasn't occured. Of course, those hires will not be East or West just like the post-2005 hires, so the East/West pilots will be mostly gone by 2025 or so (more-so on the East since there's been relatively little hiring there since 1990 while West hired right up to the merger agreement).

Jim

 

[Dont call me Shirley]

The big hiring period at PI during 1983 through 1988 (6 years) when about 1800 pilots were hired (300/year average) will be responsible for the surge in retirements for the 6 years after 2016.

Jim

Wow, the years of the "Up and coming airline". A great many of those hired in '93/'94 from Braniff --- sometimes the DFW-CLT commute was like PHL-PIT today.

Time does fly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnv0B6JKlL0

 

[Keroseneuser]

Your analysis is flawed (limited).
Everyone knows the east has an average age which is about 5 years higher than the west. Run the same numbers for year 2030 and your "analysis" will look much different.

Well by 2030 it really wont matter. The few that are left would be left seat no matter what happened. By 2025, out of the 5200 of us, only about 1600 will be left. By 2030 its probably down in the 600 to 700 range.

 

[prechilill]

Well by 2030 it really wont matter. The few that are left would be left seat no matter what happened. By 2025, out of the 5200 of us, only about 1600 will be left. By 2030 its probably down in the 600 to 700 range.

My point being, as you apparently recognize above, the surge in retirements is coming from both sides and the appearance is skewed according to when you want to take the retirement snapshot. If you wait five years past the 2025 snapshot you used the exact same conclusion can be said about the west and west retirements.
What is notable is the difference in the average age between the two pilot groups: Less than four years.

 

[Keroseneuser]

My point being, as you apparently recognize above, the surge in retirements is coming from both sides and the appearance is skewed according to when you want to take the retirement snapshot. If you wait five years past the 2025 snapshot you used the exact same conclusion can be said about the west and west retirements.
What is notable is the difference in the average age between the two pilot groups: Less than four years.

Well jeez Chill, wait long enough and you have 100% retirement!

Simple fact is, in the next 14 years you have 2728 east guys retiring verses 785 west. In the next 9 it is east 1749 to 422 west, and in next 5 it is East 759 west 174.

To be quite frank, the large west retirement surge does not happen untill over 3/4 of the east group is long gone. Don't think that has any bearing on what is happening now. Wait long enough and we will all be a decomposed heap of worm food too!

 

[prechilill]

Well jeez Chill, wait long enough and you have 100% retirement!

Simple fact is, in the next 14 years you have 2728 east guys retiring verses 785 west. In the next 9 it is east 1749 to 422 west, and in next 5 it is East 759 west 174.

To be quite frank, the large west retirement surge does not happen untill over 3/4 of the east group is long gone. Don't think that has any bearing on what is happening now. Wait long enough and we will all be a decomposed heap of worm food too!

Agree with everything above, unless you get cremated.

 

[nycbusdriver]

I wonder how many over 60 are carrying 1000+ hours in their sick bank and are considering sickation or early sickirement once they get north of about 62.5? Converting it at retirement provides them with only pennies on the dollar.

Hopefully, they will all take the early full-pay "vacation." Inevitably, though, there will be the occasional boy scout who will fly to the very last day with a full sick bank, thinking he has "saved the airline" with his high ethics and dignity. He will get his $13,000 check for the year-and-a-half he could have been enjoying life and be dead within 6 months of his retirement. Because it will occur to him that his "effort" meant nothing to anybody, and now that he's no longer a big shot airline pilot, he has nothing to live for. He could have used that fully-paid "vacation" to find other meaningful activities, but instead he got his $13,000 check....about enough for the funeral.

 

[N924PS]

Yes and the retirments are mandated to Start in DEC 0f 2012 but the trainnig float will have to start well before then...
the dam is getting ready to open... Raises out East coming soon.

I have it on good authority from an "insider" that ICAO and FAA have been compiling data on over 60 pilots.

The findings point to increased experience offsetting youth and with a looming pilot shortage, they are seriously considering raising the mandatory retirement age to 70.

Don't spend that money yet!

 

[luvn737s]

Hopefully, they will all take the early full-pay "vacation." Inevitably, though, there will be the occasional boy scout who will fly to the very last day with a full sick bank, thinking he has "saved the airline" with his high ethics and dignity. He will get his $13,000 check for the year-and-a-half he could have been enjoying life and be dead within 6 months of his retirement. Because it will occur to him that his "effort" meant nothing to anybody, and now that he's no longer a big shot airline pilot, he has nothing to live for. He could have used that fully-paid "vacation" to find other meaningful activities, but instead he got his $13,000 check....about enough for the funeral.

Wouldn't it be a shame to get fired with over a year left to go because you thought you could pull a fast one on the company? I'd like to see the face of the slimer who gets a registered letter from Parker stating they have to go to a doctor the company pays for to validate that they are really too sick to fly.

Suppose you try playing by the rules for just once and see how it turns out.

 

[MUTATIS MUTANDIS]

I have it on good authority from an "insider" that ICAO and FAA have been compiling data on over 60 pilots.

The findings point to increased experience offsetting youth and with a looming pilot shortage, they are seriously considering raising the mandatory retirement age to 70.

Don't spend that money yet!

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_includes/articlePrint.jsp?storyID=news/bca0208p1.xml&headLine=Pilot%20Experience%20vs%20Youth%20.THE%20REALITY It's codenamed project "OFF LINE", and stands for Ole Farts Flying, Like I Never Expected ! MM

 

[A320 Driver]

I have it on good authority from an "insider" that ICAO and FAA have been compiling data on over 60 pilots.

The findings point to increased experience offsetting youth and with a looming pilot shortage, they are seriously considering raising the mandatory retirement age to 70.

Don't spend that money yet!

That sucks... I've been hearing about the "looming pilot shortage" most of my career.

When is enough, enough?

Driver <_<

 

[N924PS]

That sucks... I've been hearing about the "looming pilot shortage" most of my career.

When is enough, enough?

Driver <_<

My post was in jest. I couldn't resist....