Honolulu to Tokyo

[MiAAmi]

Haven't heard anything in a long time about the progress with this route. Does anyone know if there is any new news on this?

 

[IORFA]

We weren't able to get any desirable landing slots for the route. Thus AA never started the route.

 

[B.O.B.]

We weren't able to get any desirable landing slots for the route. Thus AA never started the route.

IORFA,

Actually we have the routes/slots, we just don't have the aircraft to fly them. We got 5 slots from HNL-NRT.

 

[FWAAA]

IORFA,

Actually we have the routes/slots, we just don't have the aircraft to fly them. We got 5 slots from HNL-NRT.

Incorrect. IORFA is correct.

AA received route authority and daily frequencies to fly HNL-NRT, but was unable to negotiate desirable takeoff/landing slots at NRT.

Your post above makes it sound like you're confusing frequencies and slots. And that doesn't surprise me.

AA has the airplane - when AA announced its intentions, it said it would be flown with a 763.

 

[WorldTraveler]

FWAAA,
On a somewhat related topic, where do you think AA will use its winglet equipped 757s? seems like they are being set up for transatlantic work. Also, I can't help but think that if AA was serious about expanding its Pacific network it would move some of its 767s off transcon routes and even move some of the A300s back to transatlantic flights. Seems to me that AA has an aweful lot of 777s tied up to Europe; routes may very well dictate using them but if the cost is not starting another route, it seems the 777s could be moved elsewhere.

 

[B.O.B.]

Seems to me that AA has an aweful lot of 777s tied up to Europe; routes may very well dictate using them but if the cost is not starting another route, it seems the 777s could be moved elsewhere.

Have you been to LHR lately? Once you see LHR, you will know where AA sends most of their 777's. 🙄

 

[eolesen]

FWAAA,
Also, I can't help but think that if AA was serious about expanding its Pacific network it would move some of its 767s off transcon routes and even move some of the A300s back to transatlantic flights. Seems to me that AA has an aweful lot of 777s tied up to Europe; routes may very well dictate using them but if the cost is not starting another route, it seems the 777s could be moved elsewhere.

WT, the only cities with 777 service in Europe are LHR, LGW, and FRA. Everything else is already a 763.

There are two or three 777 aircraft doing nothing but military charter, so if there were indeed opportunities to be pursued, AA would shut that line of business down before downgrading existing markets.

A300's will only return to the North Atlantic as part a drink insert. Period.

The only 767's dedicated to transcons right now are 200ER's, and my guess is they'll be parked before they'd be put back into international service again.

 

[FWAAA]

FWAAA,
On a somewhat related topic, where do you think AA will use its winglet equipped 757s? seems like they are being set up for transatlantic work. Also, I can't help but think that if AA was serious about expanding its Pacific network it would move some of its 767s off transcon routes and even move some of the A300s back to transatlantic flights.

To add to Former ModerAAtor's excellent post (with which I agree), my guess is that the wingleted 757s will fly routes like the already announced JFK-NCL (starts in May) and the existing BOS-MAN and BOS-SNN. Rumors have circulated here that Northern Brazil is within range of MIA with wingleted 757s, so perhaps we'll see a couple new destinations there.

Additionally, LAX-SJU, which has been a 763, becomes a wingleted 757 next summer (yuck). I'd also look for them on DFW/ORD-ANC, currently 757s. Winglets will permit more payload on those long domestic segments.

I'll go out on a limb and predict JFK/BOS-BHX next year as well. IIRC, AA served BHX from ORD with a 767 a few years ago.

If AA hadn't just today announced the cessation of DFW-LIM, that would be a great candidate for the winglets. Currently a 757, but the winglets would allow greater payload. I'm sure there are a few more potential European and Central American destinations up AA's sleeve.

As to transcons, I assume the 762s will keep flying JFK-LAX/SFO until AA takes the plunge and copies UAL's ps with some 757s or really takes a plunge and orders some 787s, freeing up more 763s for transcons. Had fuel not gone thru the roof, AA might have joined LAN and ordered some more 763s, but today's fuel prices (nearly three times higher than four years ago) probably forecloses any possibility of any more 763 orders at AA.

Pacific expansion? I see tons of it already at AA. AA recently resumed DFW-KIX, just began ORD-DEL, tried and canceled ORD-NGO and begins ORD-PVG in April. Two new 777s arrive in time to help cover the China flights. AA will undoubtedly try to win some additonal frequencies in the next round of awards. As much as DL could use the revenue from China flights, I'm betting that CO and AA are the winners of future China frequencies.

Despite Boeing's good fortune over the past year or so, I'll bet AA could get several new 777s if necessary without waiting an inordinate amount of time. And morbid as it sounds, there's still the distinct possibility that eight low-mileage, low-hour, driven only on Sunday, RR-powered 777s might be on the market sometime in the near future.

Of course, who knows what happens with NW? Plenty of rumors that it and DL join forces and lots of speculation (mostly from me and NH/BBs) that AA will make some kind of play for NW to get a turn-key position of duopoly dominance in China and Japan, the better to go head-to-head with UAL.

Although AA flies a lot of 777 frequencies to LHR (all 777 at the moment), AA also flies 777s to South America (GRU/GIG and EZE) plus 2 daily DFW-NRT and one daily NRT flight from ORD, JFK, LAX and SJC. Plus DFW-KIX and ORD-DEL. AA seems to have spread its 45 777s around its network.

 

[WorldTraveler]

fwaaa,
thank you for your informative post and opinion. along w/ the previous ones, I overestimated the number of 777s AA flies to Europe outside of London.

I'm not discounting the Pacific destinations AA has but I think they could do more including Seoul and Taipei. ORDTPE is just a tad shorter mileage wise than ORDDEL. Both S. Korea and Taiwan have open skies w/ the US so AA could fly onto other cities in SE Asia which are beyond the range of nonstop flights from the interior US (except by the soon arriving 777-200LR) such as to Singapore and Bangkok; and any US carrier could carry local traffic between those cities as well.

I do not think AA will get involved w/ NW - 1st because NW will not sink low enough that it needs to be liquidated which leaves NW in the position of deciding its fate and there is way too much bad blood between AA and NW to think they will voluntary wed and 2nd because AA really does have the ability to expand significantly in Asia on its own. Buying NW just to get the beyond Japan rights is rather foolish when aircraft that can overfly Japan are already here and more capable ones are coming every here.

As for the 757s, I agree with you but think there are probably more opportunities. Having so few routes spread over so many cities makes for a very complex operation.

As for those low time ATL based 777s, I don't think AA will be getting them unless DL decides to sell the 777s and go straight for the 787 and is able to move to the head of the line to get them. I agree that DL's 777s don't get near the workout they should but flying half of AA's fleet to London is no more obscene than DL flying half of them to Paris and Frankfurt and London. Tel Aviv is probably not the very best long-range opportunity for a 777 but you'll notice that DL was able to do it one aircraft based on the schedule with ATLNRT. I think there are other opportunities for DL 777s that will unfold in the next year. Keep in mind that DL's new network boss has only been at it for about 6 months; coming indirectly from CO via Alitalia, he had alot of influence on CO's EWR and international strategy, including CO's very good use of their 777s. I don't think it's a stretch to think he'll do the same at DL if not better. DL has two large east coast international gateways which provides even more opportunities.

I'm not sure I agree with you on the next China route. The DOT is political and they will have a hard time explaining why they shut out an entire region of this country for service to another country. And the reality is that DL is the dominant airline in all of the SE except for one county in S. Florida and one county in N. Carolina meaning all of those other counties would benefit by more DL international service.

 

[FWAAA]

WT: I don't see USA-TPE on AA. As you know, it was tried from SJC and dropped. And SJC would seem like the best gateway based on demographics. Doubt that AA would try it from ORD. As you point out, most of the Asian cities are open skies. That AA hasn't initiated service to them tells me that AA doesn't see the same potential profits as routes that are restricted, like to/from China.

I don't think AA would buy NW just to get the NRT 5th Freedom rights. As I've posted before, I agree with you that long-range aircraft probably diminish the importance of an NRT hub. After all, NRT 5th Freedom rights didn't keep NW and UA out of Ch 11. Of course, neither did more than two dozen weekly China frequencies. Nevertheless, IMO, the valuable part of NW are the 29 weekly China frequencies, which can be flown nonstop USA-China despite NW's current practice of flying them from NRT.

If AA buys NW (which I think is just as likely as a DL-NW merger or anyone else buying NW), it will be for China. MEM and MSP would be de-hubbed. DTW would be right-sized, and AA would distribute at least some of the China flights to other hubs. Lots of domestic flights would be cancelled. It would look a lot like AA's purchase of TWA assets, only the trimming and furloughs would come faster. NW has already gotten rid of most of the mechanics.

Fleet commonality? Very little right now, of course, but IMO, that won't stop AA. Someone would help AA finance some new compatible airplanes if it bought NW. US/HP attracted a billion or so of additional financing; I'm guessing that AA/NW would attract $3 - $4 billion of fresh financing at favorable rates.

We'll see who is right in a year or two.

 

[jimntx]

I'm not sure I agree with you on the next China route. The DOT is political and they will have a hard time explaining why they shut out an entire region of this country for service to another country.

Well, an argument for CO getting the next China frequencies...an existing underserved population.
The Asian population of Houston is now so large that there are two "Chinatowns" (though Asian Town might be more factual)--one in the downtown area and another larger one out in the Southwest suburbs. The suburb area even has dual language street signs!

 

[WorldTraveler]

actually, I lived in a part of Houston that now sports those 2 language street signs so am quite familiar with how Texas has changed. And I would suspect that some of those people who were in New Orleans of Asian descent are now in Houston. We will see but I'm still not convinced that DL will be shut out of China - nor am I convinced that they will get it. I will say that if DL is unable to obtain any rights to China from ATL, they have to seriously reconsider their international strategy. I do agree that ATL is the most unlikely gateway to use serve Asia from but DL has managed to dramatically change the economic and racial complexion of the Southeast by offering service to dozens of international cities that did not support it when those services were launched.

As I just posted on the UA forum, I don't see AA going after NW even for 3 or even 5 flights/day to China. AA can't dispense w/ NW's many modern, marketable aircraft because NW's creditors simply won't agree to it. And even if AA could, there is a price for all that domestic "right-sizing" and AA would have to pay the price for it. The economics of AA buying NW for a handful of Pacific routes is not at all compelling and is in fact prohibitive. And I think AA realized that when your Network group decided to add nonstop NRT service to the top US markets - most of which are also flown by NW and UA. AA is now in the position of building their own Asian route system and I believe you will succeed swimmingly. And if you decided to buy Alaska, cementing an exclusive relationship with them, you would have a very strong springboard for a Pacific gateway to Asia - one that is within range of every major market on the Pacific Rim. And I will also remind you that there is a paucity of US carrier service from LAX to Asia other than Japan - and AA could add much of it now. If AA can't make Asian opportunities work from LAX, something is seriously wrong. AA has many Asian route opportunities available to it right now using its current resources.

 

[formeraa]

But wouldn't we be talking about AA buying only NW's NRT hub and rights to Asian countries? In addition, we might be talking about some A330's and/or 744's in the short run but there is no way that AA would want the domestic operations. MSP and DTW are too close to ORD and MEM is too close to DFW.

 

[JFK777]

Tokyo is the first city of importance in Asia but Hong Kong isn't the Bulgaria of Asia either, AA ignores Hong Kong at its own risk. Since Oneworld partner Cathay flies from JFK, LAX & SFO nonstop to HKG then AA should order up what ever 777 can fly from DFW and ORD to HKG and do it. UA flies to HKG nonstop from ORD as well as Californis, LAX to HKG( Ua no longer serves) would complement LAX-NRT too. AA's should future in Asia should be away from the emphasis on Japan.

 

[eolesen]

ORD-HKG has been on the short list of destinations for quite a while, but right now it's just as revenue positive to have Cathay fly them to the US on a oneworld fare, especially since they're not just carrying the HKG originating traffic.