How much longer till "CRUNCH TIME" ?

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I'm guessing that "CRUNCH TIME" is closer than some of "may" think.

With Fuel going UP(like w/Viagra), and Stocks going DOWN(like without Viagra), for the "big 5 + 1/2"(LCC the 1/2), someone is going to be "out of Chips" soon, in this game of Texas Hold Em'.

So lets hear from you brothers and sisters(serious posts prefered)

Gracias !

 

[FWAAA]

I've already predicted that B6 files for Ch 11 protection before April 1, as I doubt that LH is gonna buy $300 million of stock to bail it out. B6 price has dropped by another dollar a share in the last three weeks.

Wednesday's spot price for jetA was $2.825/gal on both coasts, and only slightly cheaper on the Gulf coast. AA's got enough cash to hold out for a while unless revenues fall off a cliff like in 2001, so I don't see Ch 11 at AA in the next couple of years. Others will disagree.

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

I've already predicted that B6 files for Ch 11 protection before April 1, as I doubt that LH is gonna buy $300 million of stock to bail it out. B6 price has dropped by another dollar a share in the last three weeks.

Wednesday's spot price for jetA was $2.825/gal on both coasts, and only slightly cheaper on the Gulf coast. AA's got enough cash to hold out for a while unless revenues fall off a cliff like in 2001, so I don't see Ch 11 at AA in the next couple of years. Others will disagree.

I definitely agree with you that B6 will be the first to file.. Although your post about AA is a little off.. It does have enough cash, but with negotiations going on and employees begging for more money it will be very difficult... Also, the profits have fell below that of its peers which def. raises a brow... This is where it gets difficult, no doubt it could withstand a couple of years of problems, but you have to ask how did it do that the last time?? Concessions... Are you willing to do that again??? Lets say its the same scenario as 2003, but this time you have all three unions going for the main vein for raises etc... If AMR gives raises to all work groups, (especially when they are already paid more than other carriers) they will fail misserably.. You cant withstand HIGH fuel and HIGH labor costs... Not until we all decide we want more and join together as an industry wide force.. IF say DAL wants more money than we all get it or we all strike, as an industry...

 

[Richard]

NOTE: This was moved to the Water Cooler because it is NOT airline specific. It is about the industry as a whole.

 

[local 12 proud]

I definitely agree with you that B6 will be the first to file.. Although your post about AA is a little off.. It does have enough cash, but with negotiations going on and employees begging for more money it will be very difficult... Also, the profits have fell below that of its peers which def. raises a brow... This is where it gets difficult, no doubt it could withstand a couple of years of problems, but you have to ask how did it do that the last time?? Concessions... Are you willing to do that again??? Lets say its the same scenario as 2003, but this time you have all three unions going for the main vein for raises etc... If AMR gives raises to all work groups, (especially when they are already paid more than other carriers) they will fail misserably.. You cant withstand HIGH fuel and HIGH labor costs... Not until we all decide we want more and join together as an industry wide force.. IF say DAL wants more money than we all get it or we all strike, as an industry...

We still make more than you even with concessions!

 

[eolesen]

Skybus will be first, followed by Virgin America.

Mesa is also teetering on the edge in my book.

JBLU? They've still got some furniture to burn. With the capacity controls coming to JFK, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some of their fleet "sold" to LH and moved to Germany where it can be put to better use than it is in the US....

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

Skybus will be first, followed by Virgin America.

Mesa is also teetering on the edge in my book.

JBLU? They've still got some furniture to burn. With the capacity controls coming to JFK, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some of their fleet "sold" to LH and moved to Germany where it can be put to better use than it is in the US....

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Ok E, I'm with you so far,
Buts lets get down to AA/UA/DL/CO/NW/WN/LCC/AK/Frontier/Air tran/Spirit/Mid west Exp etc !