If Us Airways Leaves, What Next?

700UW

Corn Field
Nov 11, 2003
37,637
19,369
NC
City could lose nonstops, gain low-cost carriers
TED REED & TONY MECIA
Staff Writers

After two decades as a major airline's hub, Charlotte/Douglas International may be facing a future as a different sort of airport: one with fewer flights, fewer destinations and lower fares.

The possible loss of US Airways would hurt the city's corporate recruiting efforts. Instead of flying nonstop to 115 cities, business travelers would generally have to change planes. Charlotte's nonstop service to 18 Caribbean destinations could be lost, as could nonstop links to three major cities in Europe.

But the city would suddenly be more attractive to low-fare carriers, at least two of which are already eyeing new service at Charlotte/Douglas. AirTran Airways has told city officials it might fly from Charlotte to Atlanta, New York and elsewhere. America West Airlines joined the Charlotte Chamber this month.

More low-fare carriers would mean fliers could stop driving to other cities to avoid Charlotte's fares, which are the nation's highest.

US Airways, which has 5,700 workers and its largest hub in Charlotte, may well survive another Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, which some analysts expect in mid-September. But filing for bankruptcy reorganization would mean a judge and a creditors committee would gain influence in deciding the airline's future.

Both the airline's chairman and a consultant for the pilots union have said that a Chapter 11 filing could lead to a liquidation.

In interviews this week with airline officials, industry experts and city leaders about a possible US Airways shutdown, a new picture of Charlotte/Douglas emerges, one that's dramatically different from today's airport.

• The number of nonstop destinations would fall steeply. Raleigh-Durham International Airport, which serves a metropolitan area similar in size to Charlotte, has nonstop flights to 39 cities, down from 60 when it was an American Airlines hub.

• Low-fare carrier AirTran would begin flying to its Atlanta hub, and could serve other cities, including New York if it could increase its presence at New York's congested La Guardia Airport, Charlotte/Douglas Aviation Director Jerry Orr said. Orr said he'd met with AirTran officials in recent months.

• America West Airlines, which has hubs in Phoenix and Las Vegas, joined the Charlotte Chamber this month. Spokeswoman Janice Monahan said America West is growing rapidly and seeking opportunities, but wouldn't say whether flights to Charlotte are planned.

• German airline Lufthansa might end its daily Charlotte-Munich flight, Orr said, potentially leaving Charlotte with no nonstop flights to Europe. A Lufthansa spokeswoman declined to speculate. About a third of the airline's Charlotte passengers connect to US Airways flights.

• The five established hub airlines could increase capacity from Charlotte into their hubs, either by adding flights or using larger airplanes. The big winner could be Delta Air Lines, which already operates eight daily flights between Charlotte and its Atlanta hub -- the likely choice for Charlotte travelers forced to make connections.

• Besides AirTran and America West, other low-fare carriers might be interested in Charlotte. ATA already flies to Chicago's Midway Airport, and Independence Air will begin flights to Washington Dulles International Oct. 1. Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airlines and Southwest Airlines are possibilities, but none would specify plans in Observer interviews.

US Airways' competitors are surely examining how to respond if the company shuts down, says Dan Gibbs, an airport consultant for Southlake, Texas-based Sabre Airline Solutions. "When you take a big entity out of the mix, every planning group in the industry all of a sudden is dealing with contingencies and opportunities," he said.

City business leaders worry that the elimination of many nonstop flights would hinder their ability to recruit headquarters and sales offices, which often depend on easy access to small and midsized cities.

"It will clearly, initially, slow down maybe some of the people moving here," said Charlotte real estate developer Johnny Harris, who served on US Airways' board of directors in the 1990s.

Other Charlotte leaders say they are in a tough position. They say they don't want to be out recruiting and giving the impression that they lack faith in the city's longtime partner.

"We're pulling for US Airways to be successful, but we're always trying to recruit more airlines and more flights to the airport," said Al McAulay, chairman of the Charlotte Chamber's aviation committee.

McAulay said the committee works with Orr to maintain contacts with a variety of airlines, but he wouldn't say whether the effort to recruit carriers has been enhanced given US Airways' recent difficulties.

Orr said he has talked with officials of Southwest, the nation's biggest and most successful low-fare carrier, but not recently.

He says low-cost carriers and existing airlines know the airport's prices and know the city has gates available for use at a moment's notice.

While major airlines would no doubt continue to fly to their hubs from Charlotte, it is less clear what airlines might serve key airports where US Airways is the only carrier.

US Airways operates the only flights from Charlotte to La Guardia and Washington Reagan National, both congested airports where the Federal Aviation Administration allocates takeoff and landing times, known as "slots."

Were US Airways to cease to operate, its slots could be sold to another carrier, which might use some of them to fly to Charlotte.

Aviation consultant Mike Boyd, as well as Gibbs, says American and Delta might seek the slots and fly to Charlotte, probably with regional jets generally seating 50 to 70 passengers. But younger, low-cost airlines such as AirTran and JetBlue, which have more access to cash than their older competitors, might also try to acquire the slots.

"AirTran is in La Guardia and eager to expand and is looking for places where there's not too much competition," said consultant Mort Beyer, who also named Boston and Florida as possible AirTran destinations.

When US Airways' MetroJet subsidiary pulled out of Baltimore in 2001, AirTran quickly stepped in with nonstop flights to five cities, including Boston and Orlando, Fla. An AirTran spokeswoman declined to comment.

Many analysts think Southwest would also fly to Charlotte. At a minimum, Gibbs said, Southwest would fly between Charlotte and Philadelphia, where it is growing since starting service in May.

But Southwest spokeswoman Linda Rutherford said dozens of cities are trying to lure the airline. The departure of a hub carrier "wouldn't necessarily mean it's a slam dunk" for Southwest to step in, she said.

If US Airways leaves ...

• The number of nonstop destinations would fall steeply.

• Low-fare carriers such as AirTran and America West could increase their presence, driving down fares.

• Charlotte might be without a nonstop flight to Europe.

• Charlotte's ability to recruit company headquarters could be hurt.
 
Let's not forget about over One Billion dollars/year it would have on the local Charlotte economy. $1,000,000,000,000
 
The City of Nashville has argued for several years that their economy has not been harmed by losing hub status for a legacy carrier and instead becoming a large base of operations for Southwest. Currently, Southwest carries more than half of the passengers out of BNA with DL and AA each carrying 10-15% of passengers; AA is a bit larger since it has point to point mainline service while DL probably carries the most connecting passengers since its hubs surround BNA, and its hubs are not the top O&Ds for BNA, most of which have nonstop WN service. WN carries the majority of passengers in BNA’s top 25 O&Ds. CLT handles about 85% of the passengers BNA handles and that number will likely grow if stimulated by LCC fares. GSO and RDU might see a loss of passengers if CLT gains an LCC presence. Excluding US, AA, CO, DL, and NW all serve BNA with mainline aircraft; AA, DL, and NW currently serve CLT with mainline aircraft. Mainline carriers may possibly serve some of the key markets such as in the Northeast and Florida on a point to point basis in addition to what is served by an LCC. CLT will probably have to rely on network carriers for international traffic; apart from LGW and FRA, international passengers today are as likely to fly another carrier than US even in markets such as CDG which US serves through another gateway.

I do not know how many employees WN has in BNA and am not sure if they have support roles there such as hangar maintenance or reservations but I’m sure the total employment is less than US has in CLT.

Bottom line, CLT will likely handle as many if not more passengers than it does today although it will probably include fewer nonstop cities. If an LCC moves in as the dominant carrier(which is very likely), there will probably be mainline service by at least two legacy carriers and the legacy carriers will probably carry less than half of the traffic. Similar sized non-hub cities to BNA have similar LCC/legacy carrier passenger mix as well.

Because of their efficiency and less concentrated network, LCCs will require fewer employees for CLT service than US currently has and will pay their employees less than US currently pays. CLT will probably have to offer fairly aggressive incentives to attract support functions like maintenance and reservation centers.

From an employment situation, CLT will fair worse after US but from a general economy perspective, CLT will do okay.
 
I'll tell you one thing...if US fails I see PHL becoming a METROPOLIS for WN.

I can see it now...B and C concourse flooded with Philadelphia's favorite new tenant...

I'm sure all the employees of US will be singing a different tune about WN then... when the the resumes start rolling in fast and furious!

WN probably never looked more attractive.

:down:
 
zonecontroller said:
Let's not forget about over One Billion dollars/year it would have on the local Charlotte economy. $1,000,000,000,000
[post="173228"][/post]​


Methinks there are 3 extra zeros above.

1 million= $ 1,000,000
1 billion = $ 1,000,000,000
1 trillion = $ 1,000,000,000,000.

Unless you're using the British form of numbering.
 
WOE IS ME, WOE IS ME, poor CLT. Cry me a river. Why do these newspapers love to print these gloom and doom stories?
 
God help us in PHL if U leaves.

WN and DL are not worthy of my $

UA doesn't serve Texas or the rest of the South and Southwest.

AA is only good to DFW, ORD and the coast.

CO/NWA misses the southwest, ORD, east coast.

Uggh.
 
flyguy121 said:
I'll tell you one thing...if US fails I see PHL becoming a METROPOLIS for WN.

I can see it now...B and C concourse flooded with Philadelphia's favorite new tenant...

I'm sure all the employees of US will be singing a different tune about WN then... when the the resumes start rolling in fast and furious!

WN probably never looked more attractive.

:down:
[post="173381"][/post]​
This is one person whose resume WILL NOT be going to WN!!!!!!! Especially PHL????? NO Thank you!!! I'm done with this industry!!!!! :up:
 
bofie said:
God help us in PHL if U leaves.

WN and DL are not worthy of my $

UA doesn't serve Texas or the rest of the South and Southwest.

AA is only good to DFW, ORD and the coast.

CO/NWA misses the southwest, ORD, east coast.

Uggh.
[post="173582"][/post]​


What about all the nonstops to Carib and Europe? It has been so great not having to depend on AA to get to the Carib and their exhorbitant fares for even a connecting flight. And, when going to Europe, I don't have to fly to JFK or down to IAD or over to ORD. For business, it is not horrible to do that, but with several kids, it is sooooo nice to jump on one flight and be in FCO or MUC.
 

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