I'm sure Doug Parker wants a change in control in his favor, but I don't see it happening. There's a full on rebellion among the unions here at US, since we're sick and tired of Doug making deals behind our backs while we work for bankruptcy wages.
When we met with the USAIR management team last July I asked them why would we expect that they would treat us any better than they treat you guys, and they treat you like crap, only slightly better than AA treats us. They spewed out some crap about how the combined carrier would create synergies that would allow them to bring wages up near the other carriers. Southwest is smaller than either US or AA yet they pay better than both so size wont change the way they treat us. According to them everyone over at US bought into their plan, they give away cars and everybody is happy to be making crappy wages because they have parties and stuff. Even the editing could not hide that the place is full of fossils waiting for the day they get medicare to bail.(they admitted that the average age for mechanics is 55) They claimed that their feel good programs boosted productivity which is reflected as an improvement in their on time stats etc. I asked if the improvement was due to new aircraft (didnt you guys simplify your fleet as well?) I told them that USAIR is the last carrier I'd like to see AA merge with. I'd hate to see the largest airline in the world being the one that treats their workers worse than any other carrier, all that would do is drive down wages across the industry.
Unfortunately I think that a merger is inevitable, but not for the reasons that are thown out there by the corporate media, I think they will merge because they need the pilots and mechanics, both of which are in short supply. With the mergers of Delta and NWA, UAL and CAL and WN and Ait Tran no mechanics (not sure about the pilots) were furloughed as a reslt of the mergers, I've never seen that happen before. Granted it will only stave off the crises for a few years but I think they are desperate. AA just screwed themselves. Only 9 mechanics chose to go to New York in the first wave, scores chose the street instead, dozens here are waiting to leave and the company has to let them go by September, mindset wise they are already gone. Most of the guys with 20 or more years left working are putting in for the MTA or other carriers, better pay and much better benefits. Just because they didnt jump at the paltry EO or the SIS doesnt mean they arent looking to leave. Some are waiting for 55, so we can collect a pension, then bail, some have to stay because there is no retiree medical, but they arent going to get much out of them, nobody is really motivated. Nobody cares. AA will be forced to hire students, or rejects, employees who were terminated from other carriers who will likely bring the same habits here that got them in trouble there, like Timco did up in BOSTON, apparently loose seats were only part of the problems that resulted from that move. The kids they hire will look at AA like our generation looked at Transamerica, Capitol, New York Air and Arrow, a place to get experience so you can move on to a real job. The comapny will only have a week or so to brainwash them , we will have 8 hours every night to let them know what a crappy place this has become, worst in the industry and the industry isnt that good anymore either. If Don and the ATD get their way and dump 1000 more members into 514 then the same thing will happen in 2018 that happened in 2003 and 2008-12, they will accept bottom of the industry as long as they say they will keep Tulsa open, but only as long as the line doesnt get anything they dont get. Why would young line mechanics stay at AA? Lowest pay, least amount of vacation, no Holidays off and you only get 4 hours extra pay five time a year for working them, a crappy 401k, 5.5% of $41k ($2288) isnt going to get any new hire to stick around. That doesnt even make up for the week of vacation they dont get or the 100 hours less they get paid every year for working all the holidays that they would get if they left AA.Field trips and OT? We have the worst rules in the industry.
For the first five years, at AA you get ONE WEEK of vacation. If you work the line you will work all the Holidays and net an extra 20 hours pay. We will add that in as paid time off, so at AA you get 7.5 days PTO. You get five sick days but you cant use them unless you are sick so we wont include that as PTO. At step 1 his PTO is worth around $1200
Jet Blue. Non-Union,Upstart LCC. If on his fifth year he quits AA where he still only gets 7.5 days PTO and goes to Non Union Jet Blue, he would get 30 days PTO or four times what he gets at AA. At Jet Blue the PTO (plus Holidays) package for a topped out mechanic is worth around $14,400(12 years in the industry -Jet Blue hires up the scale based on experience). At AA the max after 30 years is worth just $7480. If we throw in the sick pay you can add another $1200, but you have to subtract the $700 in Union dues so say $500. So after 30 years at AA the value of your PTO would be a little more than half of what guys at Jet Blue have for most of their career. Why would anyone who isnt locked in by age and seniority stay at AA?
Even for guys with 15 years it simply doesnt make sense to stay with AA, even for the short term. Lets look at paid time off at AA and how it compares to other carriers, even non union. If they give him 15 years credit he would start at top pay at Jet Blue, so right there he would get a $12,000 a year raise. PTO is normally something you accumulate over time, so how would he fare as far as PTO?? After 15 years at AA he would have 15 days vacation. More than likely he would have zero hours sick time because on average mechanics use over 5 days per year, we only get five. So lets say he used all his sick so he got 20 days PTO but had to put up with being harassed and told how he was being unfair to the company and his coworkers for using his sick time, even though everyone in the industry, in pretty much evey industry, gets more time off than he does. So even after 15 years at AA he would get 10 more days off per year by jumping ship, dumping his seniority and going to non-union Jet Blue. Holidays? I believe Jet Blue adds 8 hours of PTO for each Holiday worked, so that adds two more weeks of PTO. So even if pay rates were the same leaving AA is a no brainer for young mechanics because there is no future here.
Sure it hasnt happened yet, and unlike the pilots its hard to predict when it will happen because mechanics can stay on till they die but the exodus is coming and AA will be losing mechanics faster than they can contract out the work. They will be losing them faster than they did in the late 80s but ther are no EALs or Pan Ams out there to save the day and provide AA mechanics and pilots, They will be losing them in places where they need them the most, high cost line stations where they wont be able to retain the young and wont be able to demand much from the old. If competitors are smart they will refuse to do contract work for AA in areas they cant keep staffed with mechanics.
And the people who created this mess, Ream, Horton, et al, well of course they will be gone, basking in the millions they stole from us, putting some other operation "through the washing machine" hoping they can deal with Unions like ours. The new guys , well they will be full of speaches and probably start giving away cars and trying to get the old men to smile for the camera so they can tell everyone how we are all just so happy to be working for crap.