Is a change in control coming?

Bob Owens:

For several years, you have used 2002/2003 as your base years for comparison. In the "Another US red flag" thread you used both of those years in different posts. In one post, you said that in any other industry, an increase of several billion dollars of revenue with tens of thousands fewer employees would be considered a miracle. And it would be a miracle, if those base years (2002 or 2003) were not the industry's darkest years where revenues were nowhere near enough to cover the costs.

Yes, revenue now is several billion more than in those two years, but from late 2001 thru mid-2003, AMR's revenue wasn't enough to cover all of the expenses, so AA borrowed billions of dollars to cover the expenses. Increased fuel expenses really have soaked up the increase in revenues. You can see it by reading the 10-K reports for the past decade.

Better comparisons would be 1997-1999, profitable years where revenue was more than enough to cover costs, and AA was paying out $250 million to $350 million in annual profit sharing to the employees. In those years, fuel costs were just about 10% of total costs while employee compensation was about 33% of total costs.

Despite the painful concessions in 2003, they reduced employee expense by just about $1.7 billion in 2004, the first full year of implementation. Problem was, as WT pointed out, many pilots and FAs continued to move up their wage scale, getting much more each year than the base 1.5% annual increase provided in the 2003 concessions, so the 2003 concession savings largely disappeared by 2010. About half of the 2003 concession savings were from headcount reduction and as you have noted in the past, AA continued to cut jobs from 2004-10, mostly thru attrition. Total labor costs did not shrink, largely due to pilots and FAs continuing to climb their pay scale ladders. After the concessions, fuel expenses exploded. A while back, I added up AMR's fuel expenses for the 120 months following the 5/1/2003 concessions, and the total fuel bill was about $50 billion. At the 2002 fuel prices, AMR's total fuel spending for that period would have been about $20 billion. In those 10 years, fuel costs consumed about $30 billion more, in the aggregate, than they would have at the 2002 prices.

The other airlines were burdened by the same fuel cost problems, and they dealt with it by slashing employee costs much deeper than did AA. US, UA, DL and NW all chopped their wage expense line item farther than AA did with the 2003 concessions.

US employees have not recovered any ground on their bankruptcy wages while some workgroups at DL and UA have made some gains, and in some cases, now exceed AA's wages.

I realize that your W2 wages - the wages of AA's mechanics - lags the industry. But this post is about AA's total wage costs, which have exceeded the wage expense at the competition for many years despite the 2003 AA concessions.

Whose fault is it? There's plenty of blame to go around. AA management's fault. Additionally, those low-wage employees at B6 and VX and NK. And those darn consumers who choose B6 and VX and NK. I'm sure there are other guilty parties as well.
 
Dont kid yourself, there are plenty of winners, but the workers are the biggest losers. For instance AA took in $7 billion more in revenue by flying 30% fewer planes and 40,000 less workers, those who remained essentially saw their real earnings cut in half.

Passengers paid more, were packed in tighter and probably had fewer options than ten years ago. So I wouldnt say they won.

So, where did that extra $7 billion in revenue, plus the savings from what they took from the workers, go? Answer that and you will find your winners. Inevitably it will lead to the banks.

If you want to see the future for the Airlines look at the rails. Everything that we are going through, they went through. Overexpansion, bankruptcies, consolidation, oil and steel did the same thing. If labor is to be an effective element they too must consolidate and establish industry rates and terms.

I don't understand what you are trying to say. For so long you have been saying that employee concessions have been subsidizing cheap tickets for the traveling public, rather than market forces. Fine, so now you're saying the airlines have raised revenue and fees and charged the traveling public more? You've also said countless times that AA should cut more heads, organized labor shouldn't be overly concerned with saving headcount (dues payers) but rather protect superior pay and benefits for the remaining job. So now you believe 40k was too aggressive of a headcount?

Josh
 
FWAAA,
your post is good... and I can see now why Bob keeps wanting to go back to 2002 as the baseline for revenue. In fact, AA's revenue for 2003 was $2.5 billion LESS than it was in 2000 and was virtually unchanged from 2002; it is not a surprise why AA finally came to the conclusion that it had to cut costs because revenues had fallen off by more than 13% from their peak and at that point they showed no sign of returning.

But there are a couple of other numbers that are far more telling TODAY.

And as much as it hates you to admit it, FWAAA, those numbers actually tell more of the story than you would like and that is that other carriers have grown their revenues far more than AA has, particularly with respect to employees.
at the end of 2011, here are the revenues per employee among AA, DL, UA, and WN

WN - $349
UA - 305
DL - 292
AA - 270

now here are the average total compensation per employee

WN - $83K
AA - 64K
DL and UA - both 61K (UA is slightly higher)

and AMR's 1113 document shows that for 2011, AA's RASM was 12.3, DL's was 12.4, and UA's was 13.6.

AA does not have the revenue generating capability in its network to support its costs and other carriers have grown their revenue far better than AA has.

All of the discussion about costs in the world doesn't change the fact that part of AA's problem has had a significant revenue component and US shows that if an airline can't increase revenues, employees are faced with a continued spiral of low salaries.

All of this data can be found on the airline data project of MIT
 
And as much as it hates you to admit it, FWAAA, those numbers actually tell more of the story than you would like and that is that other carriers have grown their revenues far more than AA has, particularly with respect to employees.
at the end of 2011, here are the revenues per employee among AA, DL, UA, and WN

WN - $349
UA - 305
DL - 292
AA - 270

UA has no in-house regional jet/turboprop employees (like American Eagle), so when the AMR numbers are adjusted for that (comparing AA mainline revenues divided by AA mainline employees), then we find that AA generated $319k per employee in 2011. AA had 66,500 mainline employees. Delta's 2011 numbers reflected (if I'm not mistaken) some insourced regional employees at Comair, so DL's mainline revenue per mainline employee would probably be higher than the stated $292k.

If/when AA spins off American Eagle, then its revenue per employee climbs that day (like the calculated $319k above).

Additionally, the AA employee count of 66,500 reflects a lot less outsourcing of maintenance and fleet service than the UA or DL numbers, but in Ch 11, AA has moved toward solving this apparent revenue generation deficit thru increased outsourcing of some maintenance and fleet service.

now here are the average total compensation per employee

WN - $83K
AA - 64K
DL and UA - both 61K (UA is slightly higher)

Those numbers appear to be W-2 income and may include the 12,500 American Eagle employees (which artificially depresses AA's average wage compared to UA (and to a lesser extent, DL). I prefer to compare all-in average employee cost per mainline employee, and in 2011, that totaled $96k per mainline AA employee. I'm certain that was higher than any other airline except, perhaps, for WN.

Edit: In 2011, WN's total compensation expense per employee was $300 higher than AA at $96,300 per person. Of course, AA's $96k per employee cost wouldn't be a problem if AA generated as much revenue per employee as WN. WN is still a pretty efficient outfit.

and AMR's 1113 document shows that for 2011, AA's RASM was 12.3, DL's was 12.4, and UA's was 13.6.

Exactly. These numbers are the consolidated RASM figures which for DL and UA include the beneficial revenue impact of flying many more 2-class RJs. AA went to great lengths to point out this disadvantage in its 1113 case against the AA pilots. The restrictions on large RJs (just 47 until the contract was abrogated) have hindered AA's revenue generation abilities, if management is to be believed. Once AA acquires 200+ more 76 seaters, its consolidated RASM should increase (unless they fly empty because AA is unable to attract paying customers).

AA does not have the revenue generating capability in its network to support its costs and other carriers have grown their revenue far better than AA has.

You may be right, but so far, the only data we have is historical data - I have no idea if AA will be able to increase its revenue in the future once AA plays on the same level playing field as UA and DL with respect to 76 seat 2-class RJs. As to the historical data - you are certainly correct; AA has trailed both UA and DL at increasing consolidated unit revenue. Perhaps that can be remedied with lots and lots of right-sized planes and growth in key business markets (which Horton says will work) or perhaps it's insurmountable - as in there's no way that AA can ever grow its revenue because it's not UA or DL. I don't pretend to know the answer.

All of the discussion about costs in the world doesn't change the fact that part of AA's problem has had a significant revenue component and US shows that if an airline can't increase revenues, employees are faced with a continued spiral of low salaries.

Agreed. Either AA increases its revenues or it will be doomed to failure. AA had a serious cost problem and revenue problem, and it has largely solved the cost problem. Remains to be seen whether AA can fix the revenue problem.

One bright spot for AA is that for most of 2012 (until September, when the pilots became angry), AA reported better unit revenue growth than UA or US and about even with DL. That's not been the typical pattern when an airline is in Ch 11. If AA can recover from the pilots' slowdown of Sept and Oct, and get revenue growing again, and keep the rate of growth ahead of UA or US, that will bode well.
 
No, Bob. AA's labor costs went up. If you want to keep believing otherwise, go right ahead.

Why would you want to use 2002 or 2003? AA was already laying off by then.

Because thats after TWA LLC and AA became a single carrier. Did you add in TWALLC which was owned and operated by AMR into your figures?


From 2002 AA labor costs went down.Sure you can pick 2000, why not pick 1930? Its just as relevant and it supports what you are claiming but the fact is that AA's labor rates have gone down.

Do you suppose that AA's health care costs didn't go up if yours went up by 600%?

Sure per worker they went up, in total they havent gone up 100% as you claim.


Your doctor, your hospital, and everyone else made money on you and every other participant in AA's health care plans but I can absolutely assure you that AA didn't make money on its employees because of your increased health care costs.

If all I did was go for a physical and I paid $3000 for coverage, they made money off me.



Because your house didn't burn down in the past 12 years while your neighbors did simply means that you were lucky enough to avoid a catastrophe.
congratulations.

And Insurance companies make nice profits by charging rates that exceed the risk.


Your option is to choose to be uninsured. I'm sure AA offers you that option.
Or you can choose to go get your coverage from somewhere else since they undoubtedliy don't gouge their policyholders.

I did.



But you can't say w/ anywhere close to a straight face that AA has made money off its employees as health care costs have doubled in the US over the past decade

I said they made money off me.
 
I can see now why Bob keeps wanting to go back to 2002 as the baseline for revenue. In fact, AA's revenue for 2003 was $2.5 billion LESS than it was in 2000 and was virtually unchanged from 2002; it is not a surprise why AA finally came to the conclusion that it had to cut costs because revenues had fallen off by more than 13% from their peak and at that point they showed no sign of returning.

Bob has always wanted to be selective about his numbers. Financials for 2001 show a consolidated view for AA & TWA LLC, so there's no reason not to use them. Using 2000 would be a problematic, but it's a simple math equation to figure out what the consolidated revenue might have been. If anything, it would be low-balled because AA didn't plan on thinning out TW until after 9/11 made it pretty much impossible to avoid.
 
I can honestly say that the few of us outsiders who comment here have far fewer conflicts of interest when it comes to the outcome at AMR than you do, Bob.

We know you have no choice other than to paint the company as evil in order to keep your political job.

And make no mistake, Bob -- you're a politician. It's impossible for you to be objective when presenting anything positive regarding the company without failing to represent your members or your union (something that's mutually exclusive when it comes to the TWU).

Presenting the truth when it comes to financials would put your re-election at risk, something few politicians can afford to do. Presenting a skewed vision? It is guaranteed to whip up the rank and file ensures your payday continues.

At best, my trying to present a skewed view here does nothing except generate a few red tick marks and green tick marks on the forums now and then.
 
FWAAA,
the data MIT uses is mainline only... you can scroll down and see the data they use.

AA's revenue per employee numbers far trail its peers, in part because AA's workforce is so much larger relative to the size of the airline.

Part of it is indeed because AA has done more maintenance inhouse but that isn't the whole reason. Remember DL's employees who do in-sourced are still counted as DL employees even though they do not generate transportation revenue for DL; just as with employee counts, the DOT reports strip out non-transportation revenue, which is how DL's insourced maintenance revenue is counted.

You are correct that AA mitigated the bookaway problem in BK better than other carriers that have gone before them in BK; that is the benefit of being the last one to file.
But remember also that AA is clearly picking up revenue from UA because UA has botched its merger w/ CO and unlike the operational spat at AA which was fairly quickly resolved, UA has take a very long time to resolve their problems. AA's RASM gain has to be viewed in the context of what UA is doing and it isn't clear that AA would have done as well if UA had been running even close to a halfway decent operation and had stable IT systems.
And as I have noted, there are few times in the history of the industry where AA and UA have been "up" or "down" at the same time. Both have a history of benefitting when the other is "down."

And the news of DL's interests in Virgin Atlantic shows that the competitive environment can change very quickly. Even if AA/BA would still be much larger in total size, allying DL and VS and giving DL the ability to strategically influence VS would be enough to move DL from a distant #3 at LHR compared to AA and UA to being very much in the game in the top UK markets.
The same thing will happen in Latin America.
Despite some people's assertions that DL has used a dart board strategy to adding routes, DL has been very methodical about what they intended to do coming out of BK. Their primary focus has been on NYC and that is close to being wrapped up. LHR, Latin America, and the west coast are current project. With DL's ownership positions in AeroMexico and Gol sealed and w/ their ability to influence those companies' decisions (DL has seats on the board even w/ a minority stake) and with the growth of SEA and deepening times with AS, LHR is now the primary focus.
The significance is that all of those regions are also key regions for AA.
And AA also faces competitive challenges from other carriers, including WN and B6.

Thus, your assertion that AA's ability to raise revenue is key - but it is also going to be a much bigger challenge than raising revenue was for other carriers coming out of BK.

Bob,
AA didn't make money of you w/ health care costs; your coworkers and their families did. If you want to be mad at someone, perhaps you should figure out who had open heart surgery or cancer and direct your ire at them. You clearly subsidized them.
Or you could be thankful you were healthy... and pay your couple thousand dollars in premiums per year until the day when you need health care or choose to not have health care coverage.
 
Bob,
AA didn't make money of you w/ health care costs; your coworkers and their families did. If you want to be mad at someone, perhaps you should figure out who had open heart surgery or cancer and direct your ire at them. You clearly subsidized them.
Or you could be thankful you were healthy... and pay your couple thousand dollars in premiums per year until the day when you need health care or choose to not have health care coverage.

No AA took the money from me to offset their obligations to other employees. Like they are planning to do with the Prefunding that was put in as a match to my contributions per the agreement. When I took this job benefits were part of the compensation. AA is more than likely partly responsible for the illnesses my coworkers are suffering from, at least at one time they would pay for the mess they helped create. They did this by having us work odd shifts and by having us work for years with hazardous chemicals without proper protection or training, both of these things are said to cause cancer.
 
I can honestly say that the few of us outsiders who comment here have far fewer conflicts of interest when it comes to the outcome at AMR than you do, Bob.

We know you have no choice other than to paint the company as evil in order to keep your political job.

And make no mistake, Bob -- you're a politician. It's impossible for you to be objective when presenting anything positive regarding the company without failing to represent your members or your union (something that's mutually exclusive when it comes to the TWU).

Presenting the truth when it comes to financials would put your re-election at risk, something few politicians can afford to do. Presenting a skewed vision? It is guaranteed to whip up the rank and file ensures your payday continues.

At best, my trying to present a skewed view here does nothing except generate a few red tick marks and green tick marks on the forums now and then.

Politician? Sure, I'm elected aren't I? But to say that I say things only to get reelected is at best your opinion, or more likely your desperate accusation because the facts I've presented leave you no other avenue for attack. You sad little man, others have made the same accusation even though the facts have proven otherwise.

I never claimed to be objective, but I do my best to be factual and on more than one occasion I've admitted I was wrong, have you? Oh thats right, you cant can you?

Sure I'm going to use the facts that support my position, thats what people do when they debate. Give people all the facts and let them decide which facts carry more weight and which side the agree with. After all the readers are supposed to be the Judge, not you or I.

The difference between you and I is I don't pretend to be something I'm not (us outsiders? "Objective???" "I can Honestly say" Please, give us more credit than that!!!).
 
No AA took the money from me to offset their obligations to other employees. Like they are planning to do with the Prefunding that was put in as a match to my contributions per the agreement. When I took this job benefits were part of the compensation. AA is more than likely partly responsible for the illnesses my coworkers are suffering from, at least at one time they would pay for the mess they helped create. They did this by having us work odd shifts and by having us work for years with hazardous chemicals without proper protection or training, both of these things are said to cause cancer.
Bob, was your above mentioned concern not clarified by the letter from Videtich? If I'm reading it right, each individual has to give their consent to allow the monies to be given to an alternate fund for retiree's after the judge terminates their retirement medical. I could be way off though.


Dear Brothers:
Unfortunately we have had an issue with misinformation being disseminated to the membership and I have been receiving calls. The newly ratified TWU/AA agreements, approval of which is scheduled for hearing before the Bankruptcy Court next week, provides that TWU Members who are participants in the prefunding program will receive their own contributions plus investment earnings and the employer contributions plus investment earnings, subject to “successful conclusion of the 1114 process.”
Please note that some of the misinformation circulating appears to arise from the fact that the original prefunding agreement states that one of the potential uses of the employer money would be to secure alternative retiree medical coverage in the event the trust is terminated; such a program, the original agreement is clear, must be agreed to by the parties. It is in connection with this provision that several Local Presidents have asked that we investigate whether it is possible to secure an alternative retiree medical program. Let us make absolutely clear, right here and now, so there can be no misunderstanding: any such program is subject to TWU’s agreement to it; and TWU will only agree to any alternate program if participation in it by individual members is COMPLETELY VOLUNTARY. We will not permit enactment of any program that would interfere with distribution of the employer contribution back to any employee, absent that employee’s individual authorization.
Fraternally,
Donald M. Videtich
International Representative
Transport Workers Union of America, AFL-CIO
 
Additionally, the AA employee count of 66,500 reflects a lot less outsourcing of maintenance and fleet service than the UA or DL numbers, but in Ch 11, AA has moved toward solving this apparent revenue generation deficit thru increased outsourcing of some maintenance and fleet service.

And that solves what? Other than shifting costs around? Outsourcing maintenance doesn't necessarily eliminate the cost, it shifts it elsewhere on the balance sheet.

So far has AA saved any money by outsourcing more maintenance? From what I've heard the landing gear work they outsourced south of the border has led to problems, the 757 check they outsourced ended up being reworked in house, the seat repitch they outsourced was a disaster, and the 777 they sent to China is being ferried back to TX to repair the thrust reversers.
 
Bob, was your above mentioned concern not clarified by the letter from Videtich? If I'm reading it right, each individual has to give their consent to allow the monies to be given to an alternate fund for retiree's after the judge terminates their retirement medical. I could be way off though.


Dear Brothers:
Unfortunately we have had an issue with misinformation being disseminated to the membership and I have been receiving calls. The newly ratified TWU/AA agreements, approval of which is scheduled for hearing before the Bankruptcy Court next week, provides that TWU Members who are participants in the prefunding program will receive their own contributions plus investment earnings and the employer contributions plus investment earnings, subject to “successful conclusion of the 1114 process.”
Please note that some of the misinformation circulating appears to arise from the fact that the original prefunding agreement states that one of the potential uses of the employer money would be to secure alternative retiree medical coverage in the event the trust is terminated; such a program, the original agreement is clear, must be agreed to by the parties. It is in connection with this provision that several Local Presidents have asked that we investigate whether it is possible to secure an alternative retiree medical program. Let us make absolutely clear, right here and now, so there can be no misunderstanding: any such program is subject to TWU’s agreement to it; and TWU will only agree to any alternate program if participation in it by individual members is COMPLETELY VOLUNTARY. We will not permit enactment of any program that would interfere with distribution of the employer contribution back to any employee, absent that employee’s individual authorization.
Fraternally,
Donald M. Videtich
International Representative
Transport Workers Union of America, AFL-CIO

Don is referring to something some of the Fleet Presidents were discussing. The Line M&R guys were clear, just give us our contributions and the matching funds, plus investment experience. My concern lies with "successful conclusion of the 1114 process". Never got a clear explanation of exactly what that meant. Our funds have nothing to do with the 1114 process as those are supposed to be our funds, not AA's . The 1114 process is to settle any financial disputes retirees have with AA. My concern is that in order to settle it quickly and make AA look good they will take the match from the company, our money, and use it to fund retiree medical till those funds run out.
 
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