Jet Blue stock below $40

TWAFA007

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Sep 2, 2002
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Aloha MiAAmi,

AMR is below $4, too. Its not that JetBlue is catching up its the fact the other airlines are bring it down. Also the rise in oil prices effect all the airlines. JetBlue is still profitable and is still growing at a good clip. As of noon today JetBlue market cap is nearly 2.7 times more than AMR and is bigger than, U,UAL,DAL,CAL,NWA,& AMR combined. Thats what is really mind boggling. JetBLue is still above its 52 week lows. Most of the airline, like AMR, are setting new lows just about everyday. Not good.

ALOHA, 007
 
Aug 20, 2002
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www.usaviation.com
Here's a novel idea - talk about Jetblue in the Jetblue forum!

AMR is now at 4.15 and trading about where it closed yesterday.

Mr. Chicken or Beef, here is my advice for the day - let the dish bake in the oven for a while before you decide it is undercooked!
 
OP
M

MiAAmi

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Aug 21, 2002
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I still think that once Jet Blue has to start paying on their leases that their stock will start to slide. My opinion on Jet Blue is that it is way over valued. But I am not an economist nor a wall street analyst.
 

Jeff G

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Aug 20, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 10/1/2002 12:47:36 PM MiAAmi wrote:

I still think that once Jet Blue has to start paying on their leases that their stock will start to slide.
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[/blockquote]

 
[blockquote]
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On 10/1/2002 12:03:52 PM TWAFA007 wrote:

JetBLue is still above its 52 week lows. Most of the airline, like AMR, are setting new lows just about everyday. Not good.

ALOHA, 007
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[/blockquote]

Today, JBLU came within $0.30 of its 52 week low today, and closed only $0.50 up from it. Volume traded today was also about double the 50 day average.

I've given up trying to predict this one.. With 2Q earnings and Sept. traffic due to be reported shortly, this stock could go right back up to the mid-40's.

Unless, of course, earnings and/or traffic turns out to be less rosy than the past two quarters have been.
 

jbu320

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Aug 21, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 10/4/2002 9:51:41 PM eolesen wrote:

Unless, of course, earnings and/or traffic turns out to be less rosy than the past two quarters have been.
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Preliminary indications are that Sept. will probably cause B6 to have a breakeven or small profit for the quarter. While July and August were gangbusters, B6 has seen the same trend as most other carriers during Sept. The usual Fall lull combined with the 9/11 anniversary have made for a less than impressive Sept. load factor industrywide.
 
[blockquote]
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On 10/5/2002 12:45:02 PM jbu320 wrote:

Preliminary indications are that Sept. will probably cause B6 to have a breakeven or small profit for the quarter. While July and August were gangbusters, B6 has seen the same trend as most other carriers during Sept. The usual Fall lull combined with the 9/11 anniversary have made for a less than impressive Sept. load factor industrywide.

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That's why I'm not going on a limb to say which way the stock will head. I'm sure more than a few shareholders bought it based on double digit growth and wide profit margins over the past year. How the stock reacts will depend largely on how much they panic when they see growth and margins taper off.
 

jbu320

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Aug 21, 2002
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[blockquote]
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On 10/5/2002 12:58:38 PM eolesen wrote:


That's why I'm not going on a limb to say which way the stock will head. I'm sure more than a few shareholders bought it based on double digit growth and wide profit margins over the past year. How the stock reacts will depend largely on how much they panic when they see growth and margins taper off.
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[/blockquote]


True. It's hard to say how much double digit growth can be expected during this normally flat quarter for the industry when there is so much double digit loss in value among so many businesses at present.
 
It has indeed been an interesting day for JBLU.

This morning it hit an all-new low of 34.64, and then shortly after the September traffic report was released before lunch, it jumped up to 37.98, and gradually fell back into the red at about 2pm on almost triple the average trading volume.

A new low closing price today, at 35.75, and still falling in after-hours trading.

The traffic announcement shows that JBLU saw the same 10-15% drop in LF that other carriers are seeing, which wasn't exactly bucking the trend as some expected. I'm sure that the Battle of LGB with WN hasn't helped in the LF area too much, either.
 

ITRADE

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Aug 19, 2002
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[P]I wonder if the price drop was not really an issue of market conditions, but more of the fact that the hold time for IPO investers has now expired and those who invested originally can now cash out.[/P]
[P]With a fair amount of down pressure due to selling coupled with the fact that B6 is an airline - a dog industry these days - it seems that B6's stock has seen better days.[/P]
 

sfb

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Aug 21, 2002
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To me, it seems like reality is catching up with JBLU's share price. Considering that a share price in the $50 range implies a P/E ratio of 40, that strikes me as being a bit over-exuberant. The current share price of roughly $35 gives a more realistic P/E multiplier of just under 30, which is comparable to LUV's. It's important to remember, though, that while JBLU has more dramatic growth (on a percentage basis) for at least the next few years (this factors into the share price), LUV also features a far lower debt/equity ratio and a far lower ratio of share price to book value.

I think part of the run-up in their share price has to do with JBLU being a fresh new face in the crowd; it seems to me that Wall Street has been latching onto almost anything remotely attractive since the dot com bust. I also imagine that jetBlue having its home market at JFK raises their visibility on the Street; the fact that they're offering a trendy, good-quality product gives them good buzz.

That said, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to run 85-90% load factors indefinitely, and I also think (as others do) that the airline industry doesn't look very attractive given a possible second Gulf War in the next several months. I also suspect that DL's move to throw more capacity in the NYC-Florida market will also affect loads and yields.
 

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