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[P][BR]On 9/13/2002 1:02:19 PM TWAFA007 wrote:[BR][BR]Aloha Mike,[BR][BR]AA may not be near bankrupcy, yet, but it is getting closer everyday. AA has lost over $2.3 BILLION in the last 12 months and lost over $465 million in the 2Q alone. Thats over 5 million a day. Not even TWA lost that much per day. This week Moodys downgrade AA senior unsecured debt, because AA has been hocking a lot of stuff. It will be more costly for AA to raise money. Today the stock hit $7.89/share, a drop of $1 and over 11% in one day. AA stock has drop over 50% drop in just 3months. The last time Iv seen drop in numbers like this was at TWA. The BIG factor is when gun happy Bush starts the war on Iraq. This will cause a huge spike in oil prices sending fuel prices way up. Add to the huge drop off in air travel, especially international travel that will happen and you have the same situation that happen to TWA during the Gulf War. TWA never recovered from those huge loses. IMHO, the worse is yet to come. I believe the 1Q of '03 will very interesting to say the least. [BR][BR]Watch for more big changes at AA and the way AA operates. Its a whole new ball game. A game we all have to play.[BR][BR]ALOHA, 007[/P]
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[P]MIKE says: Please show us the real cash burn, vs the pension losses. AA had a 9% return set on the pension funds. No more. Now they will have to contribute to them or wait for a higher return in the market. That will account for a portion of ourcurrent losses. [/P]
[P]I wonder when you say, not even TW lost that much a day. Did TW ever fly around 800 planes? Did they ever employ around 100,000 people. I dont think so.[/P]
[P]As for the gulf war TW was also a player to europe only. AA has international markets in Europe, Asia, Central and South America. That will help if the little Bush tries to make another war to spike up his polling numbers. [/P][/BLOCKQUOTE]