Mergers coming soon....

[dariencc]

Why would there be western furloughs? They could open a eastern base for west pilots and planes tomarrow if they wanted. No one seems too concerned with TA restrictions at this point. I would not be surprised to see Parker circumvent the TA if it meant the company could gain greater synergies without actually merging both carriers' seniority lists. This keeps the option open for spinning off either side and rejoining with a healthier partner.

Maybe you should read LOA 93 before your next post. It contains a min fleet size for the east. The west has no such protection.

Say, aren't you the same guy who started that idiotic thread about the company deadheading west crews to PHL to fly to China? Thought so.

 

[donttouchthebeauty]

The upcoming presentations by airline executives in New York will not
only address the industry and the individual airlines but renew the
push for consolidation.

Would not be surprised if Delta starts things rolling with a bid for Northwest.
United and US Airways next. With American and Continental combining to make
the "Big Three " from these six.

They need to do these deals while they still have about one year remaining of
the current administration's term in office. Oil is still volatile and will remain so
and foreign carriers are consolidating.

When Parker made his bid for Delta they had provisions for settling with labor,
especially the Pilot's group and I'm sure this time would be no exception. There
will be plenty of money to grease all the wheels , both in the industry, Wall Street, and
on Capital Hill.

Do you seriously think that AA and CAL would be allowed to hook up?? Not even maybe... Think JFK LGA EWR and IAH DFW.... Sorry that would NEVER pass, and would be as laughable as the recommendation... I think AA will have enough of its own problems and wont be favored to highly by anyone, considering the nature of the TWA Acquisition... If DAL and NWA hook up, you will see a CAL and UAL, or you could see a DAL and UAL (more likely) and a CAL and NWA hookup....

 

[767jetz]

If DAL and NWA hook up, you will see a CAL and UAL, or you could see a DAL and UAL (more likely) and a CAL and NWA hookup....

I agree with your assessment.

I think US will probably be on the sidelines if consolidation occurs in the near future. Simply too much labor unrest. Plus Parker has not proven that he can make his first merger work yet. As usual, one only needs to follow the money. Look at what the hedge funds have been suggesting and you will see where this merger frenzy will lead if it ever leaves the port.

 

[legacy-to-LCC]

I agree with your assessment.

I think US will probably be on the sidelines if consolidation occurs in the near future. Simply too much labor unrest. Plus Parker has not proven that he can make his first merger work yet. As usual, one only needs to follow the money. Look at what the hedge funds have been suggesting and you will see where this merger frenzy will lead if it ever leaves the port.

i think you are absolutely correct!! and, this is not rocket science.
plus, who would want to merge with a company that has repeatedly alienated their most valuable customers? you know, those customers that pay the bills when the economy depresses disposable kettle incomes?
there is little doubt that when consolidation does unfold, america west (dba usairways) will be left out.
thanks DoUgIe and scooter!! such talent...

 

[767jetz]

What will be interesting is how the Nicolau award will affect the UAL pilots in any upcoming merger.

But remember, that was almost 17 years ago. One would expect -- and I don't know, but would welcome the info from any UAL types monitoring this frequency -- what your average garden variety 17-year pilot at UAL can hold as far as seat, equipment, and domicile, but I would expect they are reasonably far up the food chain by now.

A 17 year UAL pilot would be a junior to mid 767 Captain, depending on domicile. Although we had a 4 year 737 Captain just prior to 9/11/01, the junior 737 captains in Chicago now are about the 10 year mark. The junior 737 and A320 f/o's are new hires and would go ahead of any furloughed pilots from another carrier.

So let's say that UAL merges with another ALPA airline. The pilot seniority fight will go to arbitration. (It always does.)

I strongly disagree. Yes, at US they always go to arbitration. In 2000, the US MEC met with the UA MEC and basically said right from the start "See you in arbitration." Obviously a single-minded group that hasn't changed it's approach in the last 7 years. But in your hypothetical scenario it is not a forgone conclusion. (unless of course the said merger is with US.) When UAL was recently talking to CO about a merger (during the attempted hostile takeover of DL by US) it has been said that the pilot's unions already hammered out a rough seniority list. With similar demographics and equipment types there was little to be lost by anyone by relative slotting. What you bring is what you keep and career expectations are similar on each side, give or take a couple of years.

A merger between DL and UA would produce similar results. In fact UA's MEC did an extensive analysis of the Nicolau award and the integration process that occurred between East & West leading to the award. Their conclusion was that reaching a negotiated agreement and avoiding arbitration is paramount, even if it means both sides conceding a bit for the greater good and to avoid the uncertainty of arbitration.

Here is a quote from our Merger Committee: "One lesson that stands out concerning the arbitrated seniority integration decision involving US Airways and America West is that by failing to negotiate a solution, the pilots placed their collective futures in the hands of a third party. While sometimes that cannot be avoided, it is always a risk. That fact has clearly been underscored by the Alaska Airlines compensation arbitration a few years ago which dealt a substantial pay decrease to the pilots of Alaska. In the US Airways-America West case, the pilots who are most unhappy with the decision undoubtedly are asking themselves whether a little more flexibility in the earlier stages of the proceedings might have served them better."

So in siding with Nicolau, in his zeal to screw the US East pilots, the UAL pilot neutral essentially threw his own furloughed fellow UAL pilots under the bus in any upcoming merger.)

UA has no furloughs, and has been adding new hires to the list for months now.

So the 17-year UAL captain could very well see a pilot from a younger, smaller airline leapfrog him or her in seniority, if Nicolau is used as the template.

While there are extremes on both sides, and this "leapfrog" you speak of is possible, it would be few and far between. Over all, after current fleet and seat is taken into consideration as well as career expectations at the time of the merger, the Nicolau award would serve well as a template. DOH is dead for pilot integrations. The idea of the UAL neutral shooting himself in the foot is wishful thinking at best.

 

[luvn737s]

Reason VS Hysteria. Anyone taking bets?

 

[767jetz]

I'll take Hysteria for $100. 😉

 

[stevusc]

JPMorgan airline analyst Jamie Baker seconded that in a report this week. He said a "non-participating US Airways could potentially emerge as the single most profitable legacy (hub-and-spoke) airline."

 

[EastUS]

When UAL was recently talking to CO about a merger (during the attempted hostile takeover of DL by US) it has been said that the pilot's unions already hammered out a rough seniority list.

In fact UA's MEC did an extensive analysis of the Nicolau award and the integration process that occurred between East & West leading to the award.

What possible value to anyone was ever achieved by countless hours of dues paid time spent via "the pilot's unions already hammered out a rough seniority list." for a "merger" not ever announced, much less in progress? Where might ANY sense of urgency for such have arisen?

I've no doubt that "UA's MEC did an extensive analysis of the Nicolau award and the integration process..."..all at four star hotels and at the full expense of the line pilots again. Apparently; they managed to brilliantly conclude that arbitration's fraught with risk. I'd guess that took that particular Alpo brain trust at least two weeks to a month or more to harrumph over and eventually grasp.

Honestly; Is there really anything that devout Alpoids won't do to avoid any/all line flying and maximize their "flight pay loss", and enjoy catered meals in very comfortable surroundings? The current climate of industry consolidation, and what "might" happen, certainly affords a few drones ample opportunity for much conferencing and harrumphing it seems.

You can have Hysteria for $100. I'll take Alpo BS for a $1,000 😉

 

[deltawatch]

JPMorgan airline analyst Jamie Baker seconded that in a report this week. He said a "non-participating US Airways could potentially emerge as the single most profitable legacy (hub-and-spoke) airline."

Barry said a US Airways-United pairing, mentioned in the past, would have been done already if the airlines thought it made sense.

The carriers' top executives have been among the most outspoken fans of consolidation. The most recent chatter has focused on Delta and United, though both parties denied reports talks were under way.

Even if US Airways doesn't pair up, Kirby said it would still benefit from other deals. That's because merging airlines cut duplicate or close-by flights, reducing competition and raising fares.

"We think consolidation is good for US Airways whether we participate directly or not," he said.

JPMorgan airline analyst Jamie Baker seconded that in a report this week. He said a "non-participating US Airways could potentially emerge as the single most profitable legacy (hub-and-spoke) airline."

Southwest Airlines doesn't get thrown in the mix too much, but the airline's chief financial officer, Laura Wright, said at the Calyon conference that it won't overlook any opportunities.

 

[zethya]

The only non-benefit that I can project from US Airways as a standalone carrier after several consolidations is the inevitable continuation of the current management team. With a significant new fleet coming to fruition between 2009 and 2016, US has the potential to be a powerhouse player in this industry. A new LEGACY oriented/thinking team is a MUST for any substantial and absolutely necessary change to be made in that direction. Time to rethink the LCC branding and refocus on providing quality services to largely disgruntled customers. PHL desperately needs an infrastructure makeover if it is to adequately support US's future needs (assuming they evolve) - particularly internationally. Either the city needs to implement one of the current FAA CEP designs, or it needs to upgrade B,C,D,E and F - some of which is already planned or underway. I feel a huge missing link at PHL is the total lack of fast and efficient inter-terminal transportation - e.g., a tram, etc. - a necessity for a major hub. US has IMO the potential to evolve into a world class airline IF it can attain a management force with sufficient vision and acceptance to see beyond the next Quarter. With little factual basis, I firmly believe the major reason PHL has not provided more growth support, or made any major concessions to US, is the potential they may consolidate with UA, CO or AA and downsize the hub (ala PIT) in favor of the acquiring carriers existing facilities. WN, on the other hand, is expanding cautiously and appears to have more forward/logical thinking and consequently credible management - and will always have a sufficient loyal (almost dedicated) PHL following to support their future. With WN it's consistency - what you see is what you get and there are few surprises. I really don't get the feeling that the current US management has a sense for the depth of the hole this airline needs to crawl out of to again be taken seriously on the world market.

 

[Travelpro72]

This airline is DOOMED unless the focus group can figure out how to set up a beverage cart. Doomed I tell ya. The talent of this management is running on empty.

 

[nycbusdriver]

Why would there be western furloughs? They could open a eastern base for west pilots and planes tomarrow if they wanted. No one seems too concerned with TA restrictions at this point. I would not be surprised to see Parker circumvent the TA if it meant the company could gain greater synergies without actually merging both carriers' seniority lists. This keeps the option open for spinning off either side and rejoining with a healthier partner.

That's gotta be the funniest thing I've seen here in a long time. You absolutely must be smoking some powerful s***.

But your post prompted the thought that Doogie could REALLY stir the pot (no pun...I think) by opening your AWA east base in PIT on Feb 1st!

Truly, though, as has been pointed out. If the fleet has to do any considerable shrinking due to plummeting yields in leisure markets, the fleet HAS to shrink on the west or not at all. LOA 93 isn't looking all that bad right now. You guys knew about shrinkage, didn't you? Ask George Costanza!

 

[BoeingBoy]

If the fleet has to do any considerable shrinking due to plummeting yields in leisure markets, the fleet HAS to shrink on the west or not at all.

Even LOA 93 allows the East fleet to shrink.....down to under 200 airplanes IIRC.

Jim

 

[luvn737s]

But your post prompted the thought that Doogie could REALLY stir the pot (no pun...I think) by opening your AWA east base in PIT on Feb 1st!

It wasn't my idea. I've heard this idea tossed around by several people. It would likely be a PHL base as I understand it, but I suppose it could be CLT as well. I don't see anything that would stop Parker from doing what he has to to run the airline. He knows that Nicolau is the legitimate list and he will staff the airline accordingly. I doubt he feels too intimidated by Prater or U-SAPs to basically tear up any restrictions in LOA93 that would inhibit his ability to manage the staffing and fleet levels.

Would Prater step in? How about the Empty Pockets Pilots Union (U-SAPs)? How about no representation, a real possibility of the NMB election?

You're probably right, Parker will allow this hostage stalemate to drag out for years without taking any action. Yeah, you're right. 🙄