Mid term blow out?

OP
delldude

delldude

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Oct 29, 2002
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Five weeks from tonight we'll hopefully have election returns to discuss.

Will people be worried about January 6th, or their gas and grocery bills?

Will they be thinking about mean tweets, or about rampant crime in the deep blue cities?
Ought to bring the Bear out of hibernation.
 

eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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Harry Enton's piece today basically shreds KFC's position... He used to be one of the lead analysts at Five Thirty Eight but now works for CNN.


But it’s also possible that abortion is fading as an issue. It ranked seventh when compared to other issues when Americans were asked to name issues that were extremely or very important to them in a recent Monmouth University poll.

Gallup polling showed 8% of Americans named abortion as the nation’s most important problem in July. That was the highest since Gallup began tracking abortion as an important problem in 1984. In their most recent poll, only 4% said abortion was the most important problem. Additionally, the percentage of Americans who listed the judicial system/courts/laws as the most important problem dropped from 5% in July to 2% now.

We see this in Google searches as well. The number of Google searches for abortion in September was basically tied with the number of searches in April, before the May leak of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe. Searches in September were one-third of the level they were in May. They’re one-fifth of the level they were in June, when Roe was overturned. They’re less than half what they were in July.

The Google search data is quite interesting. That primary result KFC likes to point to could be an outlier.

He goes on:

Another issue that ranked high in the Monmouth poll was crime. An issue Republicans have been running on. Polling indicates a double-digit advantage of them on crime.

Notably, abortion searches outnumbered crime searches on Google in May, June and July. Today, crime searches outnumber abortion by greater than two-to-one.

Here are the Monmouth Poll results referred to:

9-2022-Issues.png
 

KCFlyer

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All I know is that the abortion bill in Kansas brought out a lot of WOMEN. And they've got GOP candidates running for AG who vows to ban abortion. That should get the girls out too.
 

eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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I can respect you sticking to your guns here (oh wait, you hate those...), but you're completely tone deaf as to what people are really concerned about in this election.

I'm sure the Roe decision brought some people out in the five weeks after it was overturned for your primary in August.

But that's ancient history. The only reason Democrats keep talking about it is because they have nothing else to try and promote, and to try and continue to fool low information voters from realizing that we're in a recession that the Democrats helped create.

Those suburban mom voters you think are huge abortion supporters have since been pre-occupied with the continued reality of:
  • white collar job losses (already happening in high tech and finance)
  • high gas prices
  • higher food prices
  • food and baby formula shortages (the formula shortage which didn't officially end until about three weeks ago)
  • declining 401K values
  • rising interest rates for mortgages and variable rate credit cards (some are at 28% right now)
  • a housing market stall-out
It goes well beyond suburban moms, obviously.

People are eating into savings to make ends meet. That's if they have savings.

Millions of empty nesters who planned on retiring in the next few years have seen 401K's lose 20%+ in value over the past 90 days.

Oh, and did I mention foreclosures are starting to tick upward again?

And let's not forget about crime mostly in the lower income areas while Democrats push for more cash bail and less police....

But please, do keep thinking that Abortion is the biggest kitchen table issue right now.
 
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KCFlyer

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I can respect you sticking to your guns here (oh wait, you hate those...), but you're completely tone deaf as to what people are really concerned about in this election.

I'm sure the Roe decision brought some people out in the five weeks after it was overturned for your primary in August.

But that's ancient history. The only reason Democrats keep talking about it is because they have nothing else to try and promote, and to try and continue to fool low information voters from realizing that we're in a recession that the Democrats helped create.

Those suburban mom voters you think are huge abortion supporters have since been pre-occupied with the continued reality of:
  • white collar job losses (already happening in high tech and finance)
  • high gas prices
  • higher food prices
  • food and baby formula shortages (the formula shortage which didn't officially end until about three weeks ago)
  • declining 401K values
  • rising interest rates for mortgages and variable rate credit cards (some are at 28% right now)
  • a housing market stall-out
It goes well beyond suburban moms, obviously.

People are eating into savings to make ends meet. That's if they have savings.

Millions of empty nesters who planned on retiring in the next few years have seen 401K's lose 20%+ in value over the past 90 days.

Oh, and did I mention foreclosures are starting to tick upward again?

And let's not forget about crime mostly in the lower income areas while Democrats push for more cash bail and less police....

But please, do keep thinking that Abortion is the biggest kitchen table issue right now.


Maybe you are right...And maybe the Republicans will win big in NOvember..NOW...what are they going to do about those problems except ***** for two years and hope they win in 2024.
 

eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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Well, it would be tough to do less than what the Democrats have done with control of both chambers plus the White House.
 

KCFlyer

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Well, it would be tough to do less than what the Democrats have done with control of both chambers plus the White House.

Oh...so the new republican tactic is to get elected by bitching and then, when nothing gets done, claim that were weren't any worse than the last bunch. Because that damned "Bidenflaction", which seems to be impacting the entire WORLD, needs to be addressed. And Congress (and the president) really have very little control over that. The Fed does, but if the Fed swoops in the make the Republicans look good, how will the Republicans explain the severely impacted housing market because of the high interest rates that made buying a house or a car more difficult? I mean, yeah...we need some short term pain, but it's tough to complain about Bidenflation (did I mention that he must have screwed up the entire world since it's affecting everybody) AND campaign against those high interest rates that made it damn near impossible to by a house...when they know darn well that that needs to get WORSE. Maybe losing in 2022 means that we keep the Executive branch since all the stuff they campaigned on hasn't changed a bit.
 
Aug 20, 2002
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Maybe you are right...And maybe the Republicans will win big in NOvember..NOW...what are they going to do about those problems except ***** for two years and hope they win in 2024.

J.

The MAGGot crowd will see Jesus, before they flip the senate in ' 22 ' !!
(and deep inside they f KNOW IT ) !!!!!!!!!!

And besides, there's that handy lil' V E T O PEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Aug 20, 2002
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BRAD , ................" IM BACK " !!!
( You ought to see the (R) dude from the DARK AGES ,up here in New Hampshaaah, trying to unseat incumbent US Senator Maggie Hassan ! Christ, I thought the John Birch society was extinct ! f IDIOTS !!
 

eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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Well, I guess that means you're not dead yet. Was starting to look at the obituaries...
 

eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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Ten days out, and the polls on the six toss-up Senate races are now pretty much down to NH, PA, GA.

WI, NV and AZ are now leaning GOP by 1-3 points if you believe the polling. Given all of the underestimating on the GOP side in the past few election cycles, it's possible those three states are already be outside the margin of error.

Assuming that prediction holds up, then GOP wins the Senate without needing to beat Fetterman, Warnock or Hassan. And... there's a good chance they'll still win at least one of those three.

GA is heading to a run-off, but may not be nearly as critical of a win as it was two years ago. I have to wonder if the money Warnock needs to win will be there for the fourth time.


This cycle is critical because there won't be huge opportunities for the Dems to flip seats in 2024. The seats up that are held by GOP incumbents aren't likely takeovers (ND, WY, UT, NE, MO, TX, TN, MS, FL, IN). For the Dems, it's a potential disaster. WV... it's unlikely Manchin survives. MT... could be Tester's last stand. The other two NV and AZ seats are up again. Then there's VA, WI, MI, and OH...
 
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eolesen

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Jul 23, 2003
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The MAGGot crowd will see Jesus, before they flip the senate in ' 22 ' !!
(and deep inside they f KNOW IT ) !!!!!!!!!!

Let's see how your prediction holds up against mine, Bears...


KFC, remember your hopeful pearl-clutching on women voting based on abortion? Yeah... no.

White women living in suburban areas, a key voting group that helped Democrats seize control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections, favor Republican candidates for Congress over Democrats by 15 percentage points, according to the most recent poll from the Wall Street Journal. The latest numbers reflect rising concerns about the economy and a fading importance on abortion, giving Republicans an advantage less than one week until Election Day.

“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone.

More than half of suburban women (54%) say they think the country is already in a recession, and another 75% think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, according to the poll. Those are both increases from a similar poll conducted in August, in which 43% of white women said the economy had entered a recession and 59% said the economy was going in the wrong direction.

That's showing up in the PA Senate numbers: Oz now has a 53% chance of winning to Fetterman's 46% odds...


Also showing up in the numbers.... Hispanics leaning 40% to GOP and black voters leaning 20%. That's double the norm for both demographics.

We still don't know how the dead are voting, but I'm sure it's going to be a wild ride next week.