Northwest and Delta?

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Creditors can't overrule the DOJ which will undoubtedly tie DL/US up for years.... and if the creditors force DL to go with US, the rest of the industry will consolidate. If the creditors calculate wrong, then they have left DL as the smallest of the network airlines - other than US which will probably end up in BK again anyway (notice that US' load factor is the lowest in the industry these days despite pulling down capacity - the US plan is just not working the way Dougie thought it would).

NW is one of the weaker carriers from a network perspective as well. Given that UA and CO seem to prefer each other, NW faces the prospect of being acquired by AA who will probably tear them up into pieces and then spit them out (if they can get a deal past DOJ given that AA/NW have FOUR midwest hubs). DL and NW will manage to work things out since both have mgmt teams that have managed to dramatically turn their respective carriers around.

NW's uncertain future w/ KL - whose identity is not certain after the next couple years - certainly gives NW mgmt reason to pursue a merger that gives NW more control over its future.

The DL creditors may be enthralled at the idea of all that cash - but it will come at the expense of the viability of US/DL in the future. Some creditors may care less about the future of US/DL or the industry but other creditors very much do..... and of course the government sure cares.

DL mgmt hasn't raised their offer because they know it would be far better for the industry, the government, and the creditors for DL to emerge independently and then merge shortly thereafter (both carriers could finalize their lease negotiations based on a pending merger).

US faces the daunting hurdle trying to push a hostile takeover in an industry where there has NEVER been a successful hostile takeover. US also faces the most intense government review an airline merger has ever faced and all the indications are that the government would strip so much from the combined airline that US/DL would be left with little more than the socks they are wearing.

US is pursuing DL purely because its own merger strategy w/ HP is failing and it desperately needs to eliminate a competitor and gain access to the top east coast markets in order to make it. It is undoubtedly true that Parker could have set off industry consolidation but US could be left alone after the rest of the industry consolidates. US will be left with small hubs compared with other carriers that are not only not geographically positioned to capture the bulk of east-west connecting traffic but also are infested by competition.

DL's creditors will make the right decision - if for no other reason because the government will "help" them decide.
 
ThirdSeatHero said:
Hmmmmmmm.............

And just who is going to finance this to the tune of USAs latest offer?
Click to expand...

Like the same folks who would finance a twice bankrupt company that has merged with a LCC and has YET to digest it's present merger...allow the boiling situation with it's labor issues. Now that is a recipe for "synergy".

Vs. a global powerhouse (NWADAL) that covers the globe with massive financial possibilities.

I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure this out.
 
Redbone said:
Like the same folks who would finance a twice bankrupt company that has merged with a LCC and has YET to digest it's present merger...allow the boiling situation with it's labor issues. Now that is a recipe for "synergy".

Vs. a global powerhouse (NWADAL) that covers the globe with massive financial possibilities.

I don't think it takes a brain surgeon to figure this out.
Click to expand...

Labor issues?

Hello? You're talking about NWA, an airline with perhaps THE worst labor relations in the history of commercial avaition.

Massive financial possibilities?

The reports say DAL has been in talks with UAL as well, and I think it doesn't take a "brain surgeon" to figure out that DAL would go UAL long before NWA.

This of course leaves out Deltas highly suspect management, remember they want to "keep delta my delta".

Yeah right.
 
I agree that DL/US is BAD for DL.
SO,
DL makes the best choice, and goes with UA.

AH,
But NW is still in good shape,
Because,
They will go with CO.

I've been saying for a long time, that THE best "match up" is NW/CO.

As much as AA WANTS NW's Asian routes, I doubt AA will "pull the trigger"

NH/BB's
 
NewHampshire Black Bears said:
I agree that DL/US is BAD for DL.
SO,
DL makes the best choice, and goes with UA.

AH,
But NW is still in good shape,
Because,
They will go with CO.

I've been saying for a long time, that THE best "match up" is NW/CO.

As much as AA WANTS NW's Asian routes, I doubt AA will "pull the trigger"

NH/BB's
Click to expand...
That would leave US out in the cold again wouldn't it?
 
NW is highly desirable...Delta, Cal, Amr. It's all good. US brings very little to the table. US knows that it must at all costs get Delta or it has a murky future as a competitor to SW (the domestic shark).

As bad as the Labor fight is at NW. You have US borrowing billions for another merger while it is refusing to merge it's own employees and pay them the same wage.

The synergy must not be THAT good or you wouldn't have Mr. Parker trying to shaft as many HP/US workers as it appears.

NW is here today because it made the Republic merger work. The NWDAL combo would make a more powerful company than UADAL simply because UA didn't do enough work in BK...even after 3 years.

I predict NW DAl. as they secretly planned. I wouldn't mind seeing NW/Cal/AS...
 
Redbone said:
As bad as the Labor fight is at NW. You have US borrowing billions for another merger while it is refusing to merge it's own employees and pay them the same wage.

The synergy must not be THAT good or you wouldn't have Mr. Parker trying to shaft as many HP/US workers as it appears.
Click to expand...
DP has a plan. see this quote from him.

In a conference call with industry analysts, Chief Executive Doug Parker brushed aside concerns of his company taking on more debt.

Parker noted that companies like General Electric Co. operate successfully despite owning hundreds of billions of dollars because they also enjoy enormous earnings.

"The absolute level of debt doesn't mean anything," Parker said. "What matters is the ability to service the debt."

This kind of management will leave the usairways/delta in a tough spot in any downturn or an attack like 911. GE is diversified and can quickly adapt. An airline could not quickly adapt outside a BK court.
 
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