Just some odds and ends for what they're worth.....
If memory serves, less than half of the "new" stock will be available for trade on the opening day. Someone correct me if my memory is taking the day off, but I believe the stock acquired by the outside investors requires a waiting period before it can be sold - 6 months comes to mind.
That remaining - 14 million shares for AWA class B holders, 0.5 million shares for AWA class A holdera (TPG), and 8.5 million for unsecured creditors - could be initially available for trade.
Any AWA class B holders who acquired their AWA shares for over about $6-$7 each paid roughly what the outside investors paid - $16-$17+ per share. So presumably they won't be anxious to unload at less than that.
I have no idea what TPG's plans are, but they won't have that many shares anyway.
The unsecured creditors is the wildcard group. Obviously, the more they get for their shares the more they get of what was owed them by US. So will they wait to try to maximize their return, or dump the shares as fast as possible to get cash. I suspect the senitment in this group pretty much runs the gamut.
One additional wildcard pertaining to the unsecured creditors. Quite a few have transferred their claims to one of two or three companies, presumably turning their claims into cash at a discount. Does this represent the sentiment of a significant portion of the unsecured creditors? I have no idea.
Finally, one other wildcard - the PBGC who is the largest unsecured creditor and will get 70% of the "new" stock going to the group. I would guess that, as with any government agency, they won't move at lightning speed so that huge chunk of the stock probably won't be available for trade on day 1.
Jim