Read It And Weep

[Taipan]

My predictions with todays news
1.Delta is in chapter 11 no if ands or butts about it
2.American, another threat of ch11 is coming soon(more pay and benefit cuts for you)
3.I hope I am wrong about this one but a US air like 23% actually ended up being 21% paycut for everyone but management, a floating scale cut for them most taking 1 to 5% at best
4.Pension gone, being replaced with a small matching 401k no one can afford to put in the matching money
5.Try to lock you in with a 8 to 10 year contract
6.Higher medical cost, with the upcoming cuts alot of familys will have to really look carefully at these jobs
7.Starting ramp/csr pay around $7.00 dollars or less
8.The unions EAP program (employee assitance program) will be very busy
9.The ERJ 190 flying (90 seater)
10.United express expanding again
11.If southwest is really hedged at 26.00 a barrell for the next year and half this may not happen, if they arent they may have to ask for concessions from there across the board industry leading contracts recently signed
12.Continental paycuts coming soon
13.Northwest having to renegotiate with alpa already
Feel free to add on any you might think of

From todays Houston Chronicle
Continental CEO says he only wants to ask unions once
By BILL HENSEL JR.
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle

Continental Airlines might soon ask employees for concessions, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gordon Bethune said Tuesday.

The brief comments by the outgoing CEO were the most specific to date about any such move by the Houston-based airline.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2856882

I also talked to a guy in the know at southwest and he said 80% of there fuel in 2005 is hedged

14.Buy mid 2005 all network carriers in all job groups will be paid within 1-2% of each other

 

[FWAAA]

11.If southwest is really hedged at 26.00 a barrell for the next year and half this may not happen, if they arent they may have to ask for concessions from there across the board industry leading contracts recently signed

<snip>

I also talked to a guy in the know at southwest and he said 80% of there fuel in 2005 is hedged

[post="193213"][/post]​

You wouldn't need to know anybody "in the know" at WN to see that it is over 80% hedged for both 2005 and 60% hedged for 2006 (and partially hedged for 2007) - it was in last week's earnings release:

The Company's hedging program resulted in an offset to fuel and oil expense of $131 million in third quarter 2004. The Company is over 80 percent hedged for fourth quarter 2004 with prices capped below $24 per barrel; over 80 percent in 2005 at $25 per barrel; 60 percent in 2006 at $31 per barrel; and over 40 percent at $30 per barrel in 2007. Excluding fuel, CASM for third quarter 2004 was 6.34 cents, which was flat with the year ago quarter.

http://ir.thomsonfn.com/InvestorRelations/...&storyId=121792

Assuming that fuel stays expensive, WN can weather out the storm thru at least the end of 2006 no matter how high it goes; UAL, USAir and perhaps DL (maybe even others) will have bled out by then.

Bankruptcy threats at AA soon? Perhaps, but with unrestricted cash at about $3.2 billion, and plenty of unencumbered assets yet to mortgage, your timetable is a little too pessimistic. AA has a lot of nuts stored up for this winter (far more than any other legacy airline). Maybe threats and concessions by this time next year if fuel stays high.

 

[UAL_TECH]

Hey UAL_Tech next time you open YOUR mouth, why don't YOU get a grasp of the facts:

FACT: ALPA makes up about 25% of the payroll, yet we gave up 44% of the concessions last time. All pilots took a 30% paycut last time. 320 and 400 guys gave up just under 40%. Don't believe me? Ask your union reps or take a look at our current contract.

FACT: Yes, we're recalling pilots. But due to the tremendous OUTSOURCING of OUR JOBS (RJ's) we still have over 2,000 guys on the street. (AFA, IAM, AMFA have done NOTHING to stop this outsourcing and your jobs have been outsourced as well. NOTHING because as usual, you don't have the "big picture" and are too busy bashing pilots and comparing paychecks rather than stepping up to the plate and fighting the bigger fights.)

FACT: ALPA pilots will lose the MOST when the pensions are terminated. The average ALPA member will lose 41% of his pension. The average AMFA member will lose only 13% as you guys are covered by the PBGC to a much greater degree. If you don't believe me, ask your AMFA reps.

From my perch I don't understand??????? I'm not on any perch TECH. I'm making a living just like you or anyone else. Get a damn clue UAL_Tech. You think the mechanics are the only guys suffering? I took a 40% paycut when the last round came around, and not every pilot makes 6 figures like you guys like to #### about in the break room. Think a flight attendant or a ramper is going to have much pity for you when they see what YOU make compared to them?

And if you REALLY think our costs this year will be less than revenues with oil in the 50's, then you really are one step from reality (Maybe TED is making money, I'll give you that). You HAVE A GUY ON THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS. He sees the numbers, just like ALPA does. Talk to your reps. Ask them if UAL is making money. If they say they are, call the SEC immediately with your evidence. You will be a hero for catching the big lie.

Fish: The management over at ATA and Independence are also very quiet right now, just like yours is. Wait just a few months, maybe less. I don't deny UAL is in a crappy position, never have, nor do I wish the people at Frontier any ill will. However, in my opinion I find your posts inflammatory, hence my statements.

[post="191932"][/post]​

Ualdriver,

For a self imposed industry analyst, I am surprised that you would pull ‘The Big Picture’ scenario out of you’re a$$. For a look into the ‘Big Picture’ in our industry we have to look no further than the historical impact on other transportation industries in regards to technology and redundancy.

It isn’t going to be pretty and there is little that we can do to stop it. In your ‘view’ of the ‘big picture’ do you see a Captain and First Officer sitting in the cockpit (oops flight deck)?

I don’t, there will be an ‘operator’ asking the flight ops computer if they should press the ‘Go-Round’ or ‘Land’ button.

In our race to be ‘Air-Bus’ we will be better than the GreyHounds of the skies.

GreyHound will still needs drivers.

In the future, airlines won’t!!!

But I'll still be fixing them regardless of if you are there or not..........


So, give up now or you will be assimilated!!!



B) UT

 

[Bizman]

Whoa, that was a vent.

 

[The Ronin]

Ualdriver,

For a self imposed industry analyst, I am surprised that you would pull ‘The Big Picture’ scenario out of you’re a$$. For a look into the ‘Big Picture’ in our industry we have to look no further than the historical impact on other transportation industries in regards to technology and redundancy.

It isn’t going to be pretty and there is little that we can do to stop it. In your ‘view’ of the ‘big picture’ do you see a Captain and First Officer sitting in the cockpit (oops flight deck)?

I don’t, there will be an ‘operator’ asking the flight ops computer if they should press the ‘Go-Round’ or ‘Land’ button.

In our race to be ‘Air-Bus’ we will be better than the GreyHounds of the skies.

GreyHound will still needs drivers.

In the future, airlines won’t!!!

But I'll still be fixing them regardless of if you are there or not..........
So, give up now or you will be assimilated!!!
B) UT

[post="194182"][/post]​

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.....Now that is funny....
You couldn't possibly be referring to those pilot-less aircraft tests they've been flying to Australia are you :unsure:
But I do think this is "way out" in the future....I don't think the public is ready for it....yet. What I would say has broken ALPA's back is USAir. Average pilot wage is now $89k/yr. Don't think this won't be taken advantage of either. AMR just announced pilot cuts (along with maintenance) and it's going to happen all over and continue until they are all dragged down. We too are going to continue to be beat up but I believe as I talk to many, that we are at that point where enough is enough. And I hear at USAir that maintenance is going to walk??? Now I know we have plenty of misfits, f*ck-ups and guys who will never, ever make the money they make now...but thats the glory of unionism. But the "players", the guys that what really pull this company along, the guys who can fend for themselves...they're leaving already or getting ready to. Is this an attack on "groups" or elitism, no it's not. Everybody out there on this board "knows" in their heart of hearts what the real problems and realities are by now. Some will admit them, and some will just stay in denial.