To blow yet another hole in the "evil Republicans screw United" scenarion, the "Republican Treasury Secretary" stepped down today at the request of the Bush administration. Clearly not what you'd expect to see happen from a man who was taking orders from Bush to slam United. I suppose if the ATSB had approved UAL's loan guarantee request, we'd hear all about how the Republicans are subsidizing big business at the expense of the American taxpayers.
Mineta's representative did *NOT* vote to approve the guarantee; he voted to give the company a short extension to try to put forth a more realistic business plan. If you read through the legislation and the letter to United from the ATSB, it's quite clear why they were denied the loan application. The act of Congress establishing the loan guarantees requires that the government's obligation be "prudently incurred;" i.e. there must be a reasonable certainty of repayment. The financial rating agencies hired by the ATSB to review UAL's business plan, however, they did not find that the proposed plan was acceptable. To quote ATSB's letter, "The Board believes that, even if the company were to receive the proceeds of a guaranteed loan, there is a high probability that United would face another liquidity crisis within the next few years. The Board’s financial consultant assigned the proposed loan an extremely low credit rating, implying that United is more likely than not to default. The Board believes that the company’s proposal poses an unacceptably high risk to U.S. taxpayers and does not support the conclusion that there is a reasonable assurance of repayment of the proposed loan."
The ATSB was established to help distressed carriers, but it certainly was NOT Congress's intent for the ATSB to act as a crutch for airlines whose business plans were already failing before September 11 and who were unwilling to adopt the broad sorts of changes needed to face the realities of an air travel market which isn't being driven by a speculative bubble economy. The "low-fare" carriers with broken business models (Vanguard, National, Midway) were allowed to fail; they were all in trouble even before September 11. US Airways received a tentative loan guarantee approval because, even though the business was in trouble 18 months ago, they have put forth broad changes in their cost structure and business plan to work toward profitability. America West was a textbook example of an airline the program was designed to help; they were on the verge of closing a large loan through the capital markets on September 10, 2001. Obviously, in the intervening months, few were interested in offering loans to airlines.
I don't really see how politics had a big effect; otherwise, US Airways would have been denied its loan guarantee. American (cited as a major obstacle to UA's guarantee) has certainly been trying to grab business from US in the Northeast with service expansions at BOS and the addition of its own RJ-based shuttle operation. And I certainly believe that Republicans would want to curry favor for 2004 in a large swing state like Illinois...