Rivals' Weakness Is Ual's Edge

[boeing787]

All the while Delta continues to lose BILLIONS. Enough talk good luck in bankruptcy. Let me assure you once again world DL and NWA will shrink. Just one of those nasty little C11 things. Don't be sooo sure about a quick trip into bankruptcy...could be a quick trip to C7 if you aren't careful.

 

[casual rat]

World, one of the reasons UA has been in BK so long was because Mngmt needed that time-frame to extract whatever they could out of the employees--using U as a bar lowering tool. NWA seems to be on the fast track in the process by trying to break AMFA prior to BK. So yes, NWA and DL will get through their BKs at a faster pace (since DL has fewer Unions on the property)--that's 'IF' they both go BK--unfortunately, it appears likely. It's not necessarily 'better management', just part of the game.

 

[Emil.Howes]

World, one of the reasons UA has been in BK so long was because Mngmt needed that time-frame to extract whatever they could out of the employees--using U as a bar lowering tool. NWA seems to be on the fast track in the process by trying to break AMFA prior to BK. So yes, NWA and DL will get through their BKs at a faster pace (since DL has fewer Unions on the property)--that's 'IF' they both go BK--unfortunately, it appears likely. It's not necessarily 'better management', just part of the game.

[post="297342"][/post]​

Casual Rat,

And the 'Lazy U' is not finished either.
If they break AMFA at NWA, who will be next?

JMHO&PO,
The IAM would have served 'Labor' more effectively by making a stand at USAir.
AND AMFA at UAL should have also!!!

So, this is the 'quagmire' that we as Unionized Labor have created by our inconsistency to act as a 'Union'!

If you have any vision, you will see that we are our own worst enemy.
When the IAM at NWA crossed the picket line (nothing new here) AND performed struck work, a light should have came on (WTF?).

NWA IAM is a SCAB organization!!! EOS

Take Care CR,

-BigE

 

[casual rat]

I agree that Labor is it's own worst enemy...don't you think that AMFA isolated itself when it was attracting membership? Each Union looks out for its own (shortsightedly, IMHO). Do you think AMFA would honor a strike by the IAM? At NW, I would highly doubt it at this point, after the IAM crossed the line. It doesn't necessarily mean that there are 'bag smashers' (AMFA terminology) at NW who aren't sympathetic to the cause, but for the sake of politics, they do what they're told to do by their leadership. Historically, heroes get fired for sticking out, they get a pat on the back for doing the right thing, but six months down the road, it's all a memory while the guy's family starves.

Companies take advantage of this very situation, and until this cycle gets broken, Labor is on the decline--so you're probably correct by saying 'The Lazy U' isn't finished either. Unfortunately, it's the way that it is--until something happens to change it.

--JMHO

 

[767jetz]

.... at least you never saw DL pilots be stupid enough to cripple their airline in the middle of the busiest season of the year.

[post="297216"][/post]​

WT, You are so full of it, and obviously don't know what you are talking about. You look at your world at DL with blinders, and are losing what little respect I had for you.

These pilots you champion are the ones who almost "crippled" their airline by taking huge lump sums and retiring early, leaving DL with the potential of hundreds of cancelled flights during their busy season. So what did they do??? They retired anyway, then held DL hostage and came back to fly some more under special contracts that padded their pockets with even more cash. (Good for them, by the way! ) They are not the martyrs you like to paint them as.

They were also the ones who set the bar with their 777 captain rates, long before UA pilots got Contract 2000. (Good for them again! ) The rates were so high that DL responded by turning down 777 orders in favor of 767-400 aircraft.

And the only reason they had easier contract negotiations for the most part, is because UA ALPA usually negotiated hard first. All the DL pilots had to do is take our contract, and a percent or 2, and slide it across the table. Plus, as the only unionized employee group on their property, they were not fighting oveer a piece of the pie with others.

How about a reality check??

 

[767jetz]

World, one of the reasons UA has been in BK so long was because Mngmt needed that time-frame to extract whatever they could out of the employees--using U as a bar lowering tool. NWA seems to be on the fast track in the process by trying to break AMFA prior to BK. So yes, NWA and DL will get through their BKs at a faster pace (since DL has fewer Unions on the property)--that's 'IF' they both go BK--unfortunately, it appears likely. It's not necessarily 'better management', just part of the game.

[post="297342"][/post]​

Very good point, Casual Rat.

UA and US have done much of the ugly work. As far as employees are concerned, all DL will do is come up with a number that represents UA & US's costs, and tell them take it or we'll see you in court. That should speed things up for them.

Of course, there is only so much financing out there, and with NW & DL being late to the party, they may not get very favorable terms and might have to get equity investors or loan sharks.

I hope all goes well for both both companies. But for people like WT who loved to kick UA during our dark times, it is interesting to watch their reactions as the shoe is on the other foot. Certainly provides a window into the root of their character.

 

[767jetz]

The reality is that DL has managed to become the 3rd largest airline based on that network

[post="297216"][/post]​

Uhhhh, excuse me... but let's clarify.

That would be a distant 3rd. AA and UA are by far the largest 2.

 

[767jetz]

yes, airlines don't shrink to profitabililty but DL has managed to increase capacity better than 5% this year while reducing its fleet by about 30 aircraft. DL just implemented its 2nd phase of its ATL hub restructuring which frees up even more aircraft. It's very possible to shrink the fleet without shrinking capacity. It should also be apparent to you that DL is growing NYC and international markets that have higher utilization than domestic markets.

[post="297216"][/post]​

Here's an article for you:

Delta says cuts to affect 1,000 jobs

"Jim Whitehurst said in a letter to Delta workers that the 26 percent reduction in capacity ..."

 

[casual rat]

767Jetz, it's easy to kick a dog when it's down, if it gets back up, it may bite back....There is only so much money out there for investment. I think that since US and UA got into BK early, it may be beneficial to those companies--although they're not out of the woods yet. NWA is in quite the sticky wicket considering the arrogance with which they're attacking their employees. I don't know how that's going to play out with respect to attracting new hires--eventually, years down the road, they'll have to hire people. Holding out on raising fares might have bit them more than they thought...The game of Chicken can have dire consequences...It's too bad that some hardworking people may get caught up in its vortex.

 

[JungleClone]

The bottom line is that fuel prices at current levels, or even slightly reduced levels, are not sustainable for the long-term for ANY carrier. Southwest's hedges expire later this year and then they, too, will feel the enormous pinch. Fuel has become the ultimate equalizer in the industry. We have not even begun to see the worst yet. The worst is just on the horizon.

 

[FWAAA]

The bottom line is that fuel prices at current levels, or even slightly reduced levels, are not sustainable for the long-term for ANY carrier. Southwest's hedges expire later this year and then they, too, will feel the enormous pinch. Fuel has become the ultimate equalizer in the industry. We have not even begun to see the worst yet. The worst is just on the horizon.

[post="298078"][/post]​

Southwest's fuel hedging extends thru 2009, albeit at smaller percentages and higher prices each year from 2006-09. But if you're thinking the fuel playing field is going to be level come next January, WN has some surprises for you. Check out their quarterly report for the facts.

 

[WorldTraveler]

WN's hedges don't expire anytime soon but they only have a limited amount of fuel hedged. Any growth above their business plan will be at market prices - the same that other airlines have to pay.

767,
how about a little reality check for you:

1. I am not beholden to any labor group at any airline but there is a BIG difference between DL pilots "ALMOST" crippling their airline and what UA "ACTUALLY" did. Anyone with brains and a little memory can remember what actually happened.

2. DL's operating cost is unchanged by pilot lump sum benefits; that money comes out of the pension plans - you know the ones DL still sponsors (unlike their Chicago based competitor).

3. DL and UA are alot closer in size than UA is to AA. Sorry, buckaroo, but BK cost UA alot of market share - esp. since AA took advantage of the opportunity to bulk up on TWA.

4. If DL was hurt by pattern bargaining on pilot contracts, it will benefit from pattern negotiating when it comes to bankruptcy. I'm sure DL appreciates the primer UA has written for them. I am rather certain that DL won't engage in slash and burn cost containment as UA has done. In just six months this year, DL brought its costs down faster outside of bankruptcy than UA had done in two years inside of BK. Yes, DL is run better. They're a little slow at getting to business, but DL's management can do more on a bad day than UA's can do in a very good year. There are facts of UA's history that you need to accept; there's a reason why AMR managed to stay out of BK while UAL is in even though both airlines had similar costs and revenues going into 9/11. Even now, AA has lower costs than UA despite the "advantage" of BK that UA should have. DL's costs are lower still. Those are cold, unemotional facts.

By the way, I'll be happy to refrain from mud-slinging if you'd like to accept the congratuations which I have repeatedly offered you and others for what UA has accomplished. If you want to keep dragging up old mud, there's plenty in UA's past that can provide fodder for me for years to come. How about a truce, old pal? I don't know about you but I personally would rather not attack people.

 

[Bear96]

Oh, I get it. Now that DL is about to be IN Ch.11 and UA OUT, you want to play nicey-nice.

I always got a kick of how you liked to refer to "the solvent airlines" as a way of further rubbing salt into the UA employees' wounds. It will be sweet when the phrase "the solvent airlines" includes UA (at least temporarily) but doesn't include DL.

It'll be ironic, won't it? Especially, you know, considering how much better managed DL supposedly is, and how (as you have implied, if not actually stated, in the past about UA) a Ch.11 filing is de facto evidence of poor management.

Karma sure is a b1tch.

 

[Bulscu]

Oh, I get it. Now that DL is about to be IN Ch.11 and UA OUT, you want to play nicey-nice.

I always got a kick of how you liked to refer to "the solvent airlines" as a way of further rubbing salt into the UA employees' wounds. It will be sweet when the phrase "the solvent airlines" includes UA (at least temporarily) but doesn't include DL.

It'll be ironic, won't it? Especially, you know, considering how much better managed DL supposedly is, and how (as you have implied, if not actually stated, in the past about UA) a Ch.11 filing is de facto evidence of poor management.

Karma sure is a b1tch.

[post="298519"][/post]​

Disclaimer: My opinion only, as fellow airline employee.

Gentelmen, no airline is solvent, except of course southwest airlines. All the airlines are on the brink of BK, and even if/when ual comes out, they'll still be vulnerable to another BK. Personally, and this is saying nothing brilliant, there are going to be mergers, and some of these old legacy names are going to go away with the wind.. There's very little as employees that we can do, it's mostly and almost totally up to how agressively and intelligently management handles these airlines in these times that will dictate the outcome or consolidation of this industry. It's coming and unfortunately some jobs will be lost, however most will be saved with fewer airlines and less capacity. Ticket prices are going to go up, and the public will just have to deal with it or not, capacity will adjust. As always, it's gonna be interesting to see just how things shake out. Clearly Southwest has the ultimate bragging rights, for years and years now. We have got to adapt and get on with the job of becoming more and more competitive with southwest...

Good luck to all...

 

[Bear96]

Disclaimer: My opinion only, as fellow airline employee.

Gentelmen, no airline is solvent, except of course southwest airlines. All the airlines are on the brink of BK, and even if/when ual comes out, they'll still be vulnerable to another BK.

[post="298538"][/post]​

I agree, which is why I said:

It will be sweet when the phrase "the solvent airlines" includes UA (at least temporarily)...

I was reacting to WT's gloating over UA's situation over the past months or years while crowing and cooing and burbling and gushing about how invincible DL is due to far superior management and more virtuous employees, etc. etc.

I wasn't trying to suggest UA's troubles are over. Obviously they won't be, even on the other side of Ch.11.