RJs --- Good or Bad... (or ugly)

[SparrowHawk]

It will probably benefit all of us. I for one would love to see the supposed pilot shortage that they keep predicting. It will drive up pay and will severly hurt airlines like USAirways who are low paying compared to the rest when they try to recruit new pilots etc etc. When I started 1200 hours total time was good enough to get you a nice multi engine Baron or 310 job if you were not military, by the time the 2000's rolled around kids were pissed off if they did not make Capt on an RJ by 1500 hours. Before the RJ boom if you wanted a commuter job flyingright seat in a dash 8 or beech 1900 you realistcally needed 2500 hours or so with about 1000 multi. If you wanted to fly for a mainline you needed military or about 5000+ hours or a crap load of recommendations from a bunch of mainline pilots. But even then about 3000 hours and 2000 multi with 500+ hours turbine PIC was about the bare min for a non military pilot to get on with US,AA,UAL etc.

I knew we were in for a rough go when they were having no trouble finding pilots to fly an RJ for 18k a year. It's supply and demand after all. For the time being we finally seem to have exhausted the pilots willing to spend 70 to 200k to learn to fly so they can get an 18k a year job. As long as it stays that way the companies will have to pay better to get the pilots. Both mainline and regional.

Whats really going to be interesting is the rising fuel costs combined with the shortage of pilots. In the end I don't see any way other than raising the fares to make the numbers work. Dont raise the pay=no pilots, raise the pay=have to raise revenue. However I suppose one possible soulution is to vastly cut back on the number of 50 seat jets running around. If you have a limited number of pilots but need to move the same number of passengers.....gotta have the limited number of pilots flying bigger airplanes to do it. Less RJ's and more busses and 73's.

Should be interesting in the next decade or so.

Great points and well said.

As a customer one of the things I always liked about US was the Grey Hair on the Flight deck. Always felt safe. Some of the Regional carriers, less so. I am more than a little concerned that we may not have the skill set and experience level that the majors have going forward.

IMO the regional carriers just don't pay enough to keep good talent. I've always viewed the Regionals as the Minor Leagues. Their job is to get pilots the experience to move up to Mainline. The money isn't there. Shared a row with a 3rd year CRJ-700 F.O from Mesa and he was actually excited that he was going to break $30K. He's also getting his MBA and once that's done? POOF he's off like a prom dress. There is a talent drain and some bad demographics that could jeopardize an entire industry from all point of view. Less options & higher Prices for customers. Potential safety concerns as pilots with far less experience get into 737/320 equipment before they are ready. You could even see the retirement age rise to 70 if it got bad enough.

 

[gabby]

Great points and well said.

As a customer one of the things I always liked about US was the Grey Hair on the Flight deck. Always felt safe. Some of the Regional carriers, less so. I am more than a little concerned that we may not have the skill set and experience level that the majors have going forward.

IMO the regional carriers just don't pay enough to keep good talent. I've always viewed the Regionals as the Minor Leagues. Their job is to get pilots the experience to move up to Mainline. The money isn't there. Shared a row with a 3rd year CRJ-700 F.O from Mesa and he was actually excited that he was going to break $30K. He's also getting his MBA and once that's done? POOF he's off like a prom dress. There is a talent drain and some bad demographics that could jeopardize an entire industry from all point of view. Less options & higher Prices for customers. Potential safety concerns as pilots with far less experience get into 737/320 equipment before they are ready. You could even see the retirement age rise to 70 if it got bad enough.

Well I'd be careful about saying Regional pilots have low time. We have plenty of pilots that have been at PSA alone for over 25 years. Not to mention we do plenty of 5,6 or even 7 leg days. 1000 hrs flying across the Atlantic is different than 1000 hrs at PSA. I flew 6 legs the other day and only blocked 5.4hrs. I would be more concerned with the lack of rest and days off regional pilots get.
Anyway, the hiring hasn't begun yet so I think your safe with qualified Captains (Flight Instructors) up front for now. You can start to worry when the hiring starts. We have been treated so poorly that it's going to take a lot for either PSA or Piedmont to keep the experienced pilots.

 

[PullUp]

...However I suppose one possible soulution is to vastly cut back on the number of 50 seat jets running around. If you have a limited number of pilots but need to move the same number of passengers.....gotta have the limited number of pilots flying bigger airplanes to do it. Less RJ's and more busses and 73's.
Should be interesting in the next decade or so.

Which is why it is most important to hold the line on scope. Management would love to outsource upto 130-150 seats via the new Canadair C-Jets to the regionals.
Don't let it happen.
We've all seen the results - yes, you do get shiny, new airplanes. But what you don't get is the $$ for flying them.
And mainline, with relatively higher wages, gets growth stagnation along with wage stagnation.
Outsourcing is a bad deal, whether in the airline industry or the chocolate industry.
The workers always suffer, and management prospers.
Cheers.