There is a lot in play in the Washington, New York, and Boston markets including the FAA Reauthorization Bill. Included in the Bill, which needs to clear the House and Senate Conference Committee, are more perimeter rule exceptions. The two versions of the bill contain legislation to add additional DCA perimeter rule exemptions and permit carriers to use existing slots to fly beyond the perimeter. Click
here to read an article on the bill's status. The proposed legislation would be very good for US Airways.
Other points we know about these markets:
1. US Airways and American are discussing code sharing on the Shuttle.
2. The Slot Transaction is proceeding, although there could be some DOJ issues, which would require the federal government to file a lawsuit against US Airways and Delta to stop the transaction from proceeding.
3. Republic is selling 10 E-190s. It is my understanding these E-190s are the aircraft US Airways sold to Republic and now the Tempe-based carrier would like them back. If they're obtained by US Airways they would be put on the DCA-BOS and DCA-LGA routes. The A319 ASMs assigned to the Shuttle could then be transferred to fly LGA-PHX Saturday service, SLC-CLT daily service, and according to Andrew Norcella if US Airways obtains more DCA beyond perimeter authority the airline could fly DCA-SFO, DCA-LAX, & DCA-SAN.
4. The additional E-190s, if obtained, would be growth aircraft and would be in addition to the pilot Transition Agreement's minimum fleet count for B737, A320 family, B757/767, and A330 aircraft.
5. I heard a rumor that Republic is interested in selling their Frontier DEN-DCA slots.
In my opinion, all of these transactions could remove some of the potential US Airways-American merger anti-trust objections. However, I do not believe a corporate transaction would proceed between the two companies unless AMR files for a formal reorganization. With rising energy prices and AMR's inability to close cost reduction contracts with all of its unions the company's cash burn rate is accelerating. Nonetheless, I believe AMR could be another 9 months away from running into a cash-on-hand problem because the company ended 3Q with about $4.3 billion cash.