U.S. air deal seems unlikely

[robbedagain]

AAviator i agree with what youre saying im just saying if and only if aa stand alone doesnt work out it just seems like their doing the usairways thing all over when us went ch11 the first time only to go in the 2nd time there. i just hope it works out for all the aa folks regardless of the outcome whether aa n us merge or not but i do think doug would wait around for a bit longer if aa does not merge with us

 

[FlyUs]

Actually, US can pretty much merge with any carrier at this point. It is just the right size to do so without the DOJ interfering. How would AA stand up against a UA/US or DL/US combination? That might be the better question.

 

[robbedagain]

I doubt the DOJ would allow US to partner up with DL or UA bec they had problems before Remember UA and US tried i believe in 2000 or close to that era.. then DL fended off a hostile take over by US but I dont think the DOJ would have allowed it anyhow

 

[WorldTraveler]

I think the DOJ would be more open to a UA-US merger today than they were in 2000 in part because of the growth of low fare carriers. Also, there have been significant slot divestitures at LGA and DCA as part of the consolidation of flights by carriers in those markets so there is a remedy to the perception that UA/US would be too large at DC which is the only real concern the DOJ would have.

But UA doesn't need a merger with US as long as it can codeshare on them; in doing so, it obtains access to US' network for what it needs but is still able to cut US out of the most lucrative parts of the network which UA can already provide.

The best way for US to regain control is to cut UA off, demand much better terms for what it provides, or jump ship to oneworld where AA/BA could benefit much more from US' strength.

 

[Bob Owens]

The best way for US to regain control is to cut UA off, demand much better terms for what it provides, or jump ship to oneworld where AA/BA could benefit much more from US' strength.

The only "strength" that US provides is a cheap labor force, and half of that will be gone in 5 years .

 

[robbedagain]

I think it wont be long before US does jump to one world and i think AA and BA would be a lot more beneficial to all the one world carriers

 

[jimntx]

How about give the stand alone plan a shot? What if AA doesn't lose money, but makes money?


Its not like Parker will ever say no to a merger with AA at a later date..... Like he's going anywhere.....

Uh, in case you haven't noticed, they have had a standalone plan for the past leventy-seven years. And, for most of the last 10 years of that standalone plan, they have been losing money hand over fist. What makes you think that AA can survive--even with lower costs--with a totally disaffected, screwed-over, employee group? At this point, I see nothing that Tom Horton and company could do to regain the trust and support of the front-line employees. No company survives long with this kind of situation.

Personally, I think TH and company are looking for big payoffs for emerging from bk as a standalone. They will then walk away to "pursue other interests" and leave the rest of us to whatever fate the next Carl Icahn/Frank Lorenzo/Donald Trump (god forbid) decides for us. It's hard to kill an airline simply because there will always be some guy with more money than sense who likes the ego-stroke of owning an airline and thinks he can succeed where others have failed. But, as Pan Am, Eastern, Braniff, and TWA proved...it (killing the airline) can be done.

I think the smartest approach for the other airlines is to wait for the yard sale, and just buy the pieces they want (routes and airplanes and airport facilities) without having to take on unpleasant parts--like the employees. (Which I think is what DL and UA are doing.)

 

[TWU informer]

Maybe the strategy is to emerge from BK as a stand alone plan, with employee cost shafted so bad that investors will give AA the money needed to "buyout" US and JetBlue both and just as AirCal, RenoAir, and TWA were treated so too will the next victims.

 

[N288AA]

Anybody realize what happens to the DFW market in 2014. Southwest is able to serve any market from DAL. They didn't aquire the 738 for no reason at all.There will be a large drain on DFW local revenue when people can drive 10 minutes to downtown DAL versus a 30 minute drive to DFW. And we are suppost to be adding 20% capacity to tombstone markets. As JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker asked Arpey in an earnings conference call a couple of years ago "Is that all you have?" I think that would be my question to current AMR leadership.

 

[WorldTraveler]

Anybody realize what happens to the DFW market in 2014. Southwest is able to serve any market from DAL. They didn't aquire the 738 for no reason at all.There will be a large drain on DFW local revenue when people can drive 10 minutes to downtown DAL versus a 30 minute drive to DFW.

well, not quite ANY market.... domestic only and realistically it'll have to be in the lower 48... and there are limitations on what WN can push thru DAL but few people are willing to admit ther drain that DAL could have on AA's domestic revenues at DFW.

DAL is a far closer airport and the airport location of DAL is totally different from any other secondary to primary airport in cities that have two airports in the US. HOU and MDW are on opposite sides of downtown from IAH and ORD, for example.

And even at DFW, other carriers not allied w/ AA continue to grow their presence.

2014 is also when many of the countries in Latin America that do not currently have Open Skies have committed to have them w/ the US... and that includes providing additional US carrier access between MIA and Latin America. AA has done as well as it has in Latin America because other US carriers cannot add capacity into many of the key airports in Latin America, esp. from MIA.

AA will face a much tougher competitive environment within less than 2 years.....

 

[silverbird007]

If AA charges 50 cents less than WN then most people will spend the extra time and $ to fly AA. thats why were in bankruptcy!

 

[signals]

Don't you remember a few months ago when Parker said that if AA didn't merge with US soon, US wouldn't wait around forever and that if AA waited too long, US might hook up with (imaginary) Prince Charming? 😀

Apparently Parker didn't learn his lesson when UA/CO left US holding something at the altar 🙄

 

[signals]

Ha Ha, now wouldn't that be a laugh. AA emerges as a stand alone. US is then split between UA and DL. I've seen this play out sooo many times before. Anyone remember when DL imagined itself hooking up with CO, NWA was everyones step child no one wanted to touch, then all of a sudden NW is history and merged with DL. Then there was CO who touted itself as being the top airline for service and laughing as UAL went through BK. Puff...all of sudden UA and CO are married.

The moral of story here is US may not be the prettiest but she may make great soup for the right partner. More than a few analysts have suggested that UA and DL still have room to grow through a merger. And if that happens want that be a laugh for AA? Or, maybe not. Laugh all you want but US is still a very valuable franchise regardless of the outcome.

Yep, you're definitely NOT signals 🙄

You couldn't latch my shoes 😛

I remember when Parker wanted Delta and loss. United and lost. Now all of a sudden the ugly girl is wearing make-up, and airlines are lining up to merge???

The moral of the story is that if they didn't want US then, why would they want Bozo the Clown now?

 

[signals]

Actually, US can pretty much merge with any carrier at this point. It is just the right size to do so without the DOJ interfering. How would AA stand up against a UA/US or DL/US combination? That might be the better question.

Answer: The same way AA stood up at those imaginary mergers the last time 🙄

 

[N288AA]

well, not quite ANY market.... domestic only and realistically it'll have to be in the lower 48... and there are limitations on what WN can push thru DAL but few people are willing to admit ther drain that DAL could have on AA's domestic revenues at DFW.

DAL is a far closer airport and the airport location of DAL is totally different from any other secondary to primary airport in cities that have two airports in the US. HOU and MDW are on opposite sides of downtown from IAH and ORD, for example.

And even at DFW, other carriers not allied w/ AA continue to grow their presence.

2014 is also when many of the countries in Latin America that do not currently have Open Skies have committed to have them w/ the US... and that includes providing additional US carrier access between MIA and Latin America. AA has done as well as it has in Latin America because other US carriers cannot add capacity into many of the key airports in Latin America, esp. from MIA.

AA will face a much tougher competitive environment within less than 2 years.....

I understand Love will be limited, that's exactly the reason for acquiring the 738. When you are limited on the amount of flights you can offer you have to fly a bigger airplane. I firmly believe Love will see alot of WN's 738.