Us 3q Results

[700UW]

US Airways Group, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Results
Thursday October 28, 9:44 am ET
$232 Million Net Loss for the Quarter; $375 Million Net Loss Year-to-Date

ARLINGTON, Va., Oct. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- US Airways Group, Inc. today reported a net loss of $232 million for the third quarter 2004, compared to a net loss of $90 million for the third quarter 2003. The net loss per share was $4.22 for the third quarter of 2004, compared to a net loss of $1.69 per share for the third quarter of 2003.

Yahoo

 

[EyeInTheSky]

Not good. Will we make it to February? That is the burning question.

 

[bluetoad]

From US Airways press releaseT

"The mainline cost per available seat mile (CASM), excluding fuel and unusual items, of 9.74 cents for the third quarter 2004, was a 2.3 percent increase over the same period in 2003 "

Guess all these payroll cuts are not working :down:

 

[Harry Callahan]

Not good. Will we make it to February? That is the burning question.

[post="195826"][/post]​

No Way

 

[funguy2]

From US Airways press releaseT

"The mainline cost per available seat mile (CASM), excluding fuel and unusual items, of 9.74 cents for the third quarter 2004, was a 2.3 percent increase over the same period in 2003 "

Guess all these payroll cuts are not working :down:

[post="195838"][/post]​

Well... the pay cuts are simply funding the increased costs of fuel... Total CASM was 11.59cents, up 5.6% from 3Q03. Furthermore, CASM ExFuel/Special items was up 2% over 3Q03... So its not all fuel related.

Here's another way to slice it.

If the company had integrated its plan to save $38mil/month (or $114mil/quarter) for the 3Q, this would have resulted in a total CASM decline of 0.83cents... for a total CASM of 10.76cents... This would have still produced a net loss of $118mil...

Once again, cutting labor costs still does not solve the problem... It helps, but is not a solution.

 

[Bear96]

Don't despair... I am sure MesaE170Copilot will soon be by to put the proper spin on things.

 

[funguy2]

Furtheremore... During the quarter, total unrestricted cash dropped from $975mil to $757mil... or by $218mil... Thats a burn rate of $2.4mil/day. Assuming the company acheives a cost savings immediately of $38mil/month (or $1.25mil/day), we can expect the cash burn in Q4 to be $1.15mil/day, assuming no changes to average inflow (and there may be seasonal inflows).

Under this scenario, assuming no changes for the next quarter, the company can expect to have $104mil less unrestricted cash on hand at the end of 4Q, or $653mil. This assumes fuel costs do not increase during the quarter, as well as no changes to revenue. Should be an interesting quarter.

Does anyone know what the new ATSB unrestricted cash threshholds are?

 

[BoeingBoy]

10/22/04 $754,419,000
10/29/04 $762,568,000
11/05/04 $776,756,000
11/12/04 $684,852,000
11/19/04 $713,839,000
11/26/04 $723,214,000
12/03/04 $656,025,000
12/10/04 $659,802,000
12/17/04 $636,329,000
12/24/04 $653,213,000
12/31/04 $648,395,000
1/07/05 $575,000,000
1/14/05 $550,000,000

Jim

 

[funguy2]

Well, then, it looks like US Airways may be able to adhere to these requirements, assuming no changes...

However, I'm not sure I would even want to try to guess what oil will do... I am hopeful that oil costs will stagnate after the elections, but other indicators seem to suggest that demand is still increasing faster than demand, thus more price increases may be on the horizon. I just don't know.

 

[blueoceans]

"Under this scenario, assuming no changes for the next quarter, the company can expect to have $104mil less unrestricted cash "

Yes, but it's already the end of October. Would the paycut savings be retro-active back to Oct. 01? Otherwise, the additional cash burned is already $30M higher.

 

[willyloman]

T. Boone Pickens, a West Texas oilman who has a good record of predicting future oil prices, says oil should go above $60.00 a barrel because of the supply and demand imbalance. They just can't refine enough oil to meet current demand.

 

[funguy2]

blueoceans, you are right... I was trying to keep the math simple, so others can follow along easily, as opposed to me making things so complicated that other people could not easily replicate the numbers.

 

[Cosmo]

blueoceans, you are right ... I was trying to keep the math simple, so others can follow along easily, as opposed to me making things so complicated that other people could not easily replicate the numbers.

OK, let me give it a try (all numbers in millions).

9/30/04 unrestricted cash (from press release) ........... +$757
4th quarter projected cash burn (from funguy2) ........... -$104
No salary reduction Oct. 1-14 (from blueoceans) ............ -$19

Projected 12/31/04 unrestricted cash .......................... +$634

12/31/04 ATSB cash requirement (from BoeingBoy) ..... +$648

12/31/04 cash over/under ATSB requirement ................ -$14

TILT! GAME OVER!!!

Sad to say, but if these numbers hold with no further revenue improvements or expense reductions, then the ATSB will likely call its loan guarantee right before New Years. I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't look good.

 

[BoeingBoy]

funguy,

I don't know about other groups, but pilots & F/A's pay runs 1/2 month behind. Both the pilot agreement and interim cuts took effect Oct 15. But for flight crews, the Oct 31 check is an "advance" based on 1/2 of September pay. The Nov 15 check will be the first to reflect the reduction, unless they make some adjustment on the Oct 15 "advance".

Jim

 

[WestCoastGuy]

BINGO! Give the man a cigar. This company is history. Regardless of how much we give our salary to Lakefield. We could give them every dime we make and this company will burn it like firewood. Smell the coffee everyone. Start lookin for something else.