Us Airways Strategic Analysis

USA320Pilot

Veteran
May 18, 2003
8,175
1,539
US Airways is now in the final stage of completing its plan of reorganization (POR) and during the past week the company made four important announcements. In two bankruptcy court filings, the airline reported its January financial performance and the judge overseeing the case approved the carrier’s unique financing agreement with Eastshore Aviation, LCC. In addition, to cut costs the company elected to most likely remove 11 high-cost B737 aircraft from its fleet, and will eliminate 14 unprofitable routes and service to two Latin American destinations, Panama City and San Salvador.

The motivation behind these decisions is the continued industry wide deterioration of fundamentals. In particular continued low-fare pressure, outrageously high fuel prices, and expensive upcoming aircraft maintenance.

In its monthly filing with the bankruptcy court, US Airways announced that it lost $157 million in January. Much of this loss was for significant S.1110 aircraft cure payments on aircraft that will have their financing agreements affirmed, although for competitive and negotiation purposes between the Seabury Group and the carrier’s creditors, the airline did not disclose what aircraft had their leases affirmed and payments made.

The airline also said its cash balance dropped $195 million in January, leaving it with $543 million in unrestricted cash, which is enough to fulfill the terms of its federally backed loan. The carrier was required to have $498 million as of January 28 and $417 million as of February 4 with its annual low cash period expected to occur in March.

US Airways’ revenue for the month continued to decline and from this observer’s perch, a large portion of the reduction occurred because of liquidation concerns caused by union resistance to participate in the new business plan, AFA and CWA press releases calling for a “strike or chaos†job actions, and the Christmas holiday “operational meltdownâ€. With passenger fear the company would not be able to obtain ATSB approval for continued use of guaranteed funds passengers “booked away†from the airline causing a significant reduction in revenue.

Meanwhile, the DOT Inspector General (IG) issued a report that criticized US Airways for not properly manning its Philadelphia hub, which contributed to the problem.

See Story

Management had plans to offset the short staffing, but they “turned out to be insufficent,†said Inspector General Kenneth Mead. Its problems reflect “an airline trying to emerge from bankruptcy and compete with low-cost carriers by maintaining staff levels with little margin for error,†he said.

See Story

In response the airline issued a press release and said, “The operational events over the Christmas holidays were unfortunate for our company, our employees, and most notably for the passengers that were affected. We have worked very hard since that time to improve our staffing situation and implement other changes that will enhance our operations, including a major February schedule change that is having a clear and beneficial impact. The Inspector General's staff had a challenging task in trying to chronicle a very complicated set of circumstances, and we trust that DOT officials recognize both our regret over the situation as well as the many initiatives we have taken to improve service to our customers.â€

See Story

Interestingly, the US Airways “executive suite†believes that if the Philadelphia “operational meltdown†would not have occurred, the IAM would not have ratified the company’s last contract proposal. If true, this would have lead to court imposed contract changes, which could have created an employee backlash against management. Management believes the “operational meltdown†changed employee sentiment in that union rank-and-file members recognized after the Christmas problems the airline could truly fail and thus, approved the company’s last contract proposal.

To improve staffing levels, US Airways is conducting job fairs to hire new Customer Service Agent (CSA), Fleet Service Agent (FSA), and Customer Assistance Representatives (CAR) in Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Washington. Employees are being offered an airline position with a starting at $9.59 per hour for a CSA/FSA and $7.52 per hour for a CAR. New employees will also receive medical benefits, a 401(k) etirement plan, unlimited free travel on US Airways, a discounted travel on virtually every airline in the world.

US Airways has completed its Washington hiring and has employees in a “pool†for later openings, but still is recruiting personnel to work in Philadelphia and Charlotte. To help obtain quality personnel on March 2 the airline announced an employee referral program where an active employee can earn $100 for each new hire that is selected for employment, passes the security and background investigation, and is within 30 days of completing their probationary period.

Meanwhile, with the labor issues resolved and the “Clear Skies Ahead†advertising campaign now in place, revenue is improving and management expects much improved results for February and March.

Compounding US Airways cash problem is the recent surge in energy prices. This week crude oil prices continued their climb with NYMEX Futures soaring to a 4-month high at about $53 per barrel. US Airways’ new business plan is based on spot jet fuel prices corresponding to a crude oil price of $40 per barrel. Each $1 increase in crude oil increases the company’s monthly fuel expense by $2 million per month. Thus, with oil at $13 per barrel over budget that equals about $26 million more per month or $312 more pear year in fuel expense, which was not in the last transformation plan revision.

To help offset the increased cost of fuel, this week’s airfare increase initiative started by Northwest Airlines appears to be sticking with every legacy carrier matching the Minneapolis-based carrier, along with AirTran Airways. So far low cost airlines Southwest and jetBlue have not increased their fares, but this is a positive development to help offset extremely high fuel prices.

See Story

William Lauer, chairman of Allegheny Capital Management told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that last week’s fare increase or ticket surcharge should bring US Airways' aviation fuel expenses down to levels equivalent to a more-normal $37 a barrel, which is a level that is sustainable in the company’s new business plan.

See Story

Lauer believes the increase in monthly revenue would be about $32 million or equal to a $16 decrease in the price of oil per barrel and the corresponding reduction in spot jet fuel prices. US Airways' new business plan accounts for jet fuel prices equal to oil trading at approximately $40 per barrel. If Lauer's increased revenue estimate is accurate, then the fare increase and the oil price at about $13.50 over budget would provide US Airways with about $5 million per month or $60 million per year in extra liquidity -- at today's ticket prices.

For US Airways to file its POR and have it endorsed by the creditors committee and the bankruptcy court, the airline must project a profit and to do so, it must further increase revenues and/or cut more costs to account for its increased fuel expense.

If Lauer’s estimate is accurate, then US Airways can project higher revenue and the arithmetic of its business plan should work because it is based on oil prices of about $40 per barrel. With that said, the company plans to increase its popular GoFares program from its current 25% of sales to a much higher figure. Therefore, it’s unclear at this time how the new fare structure will effect the new business plan, POR, and unrestricted cash level, which is an important factor in US Airways emerging from bankruptcy on June 30..

Cash conservation was a key subject in a recent internal memo to US Airways' planning and marketing executives from Bruce Ashby, executive vice president of marketingand planning.

"In my opinion it is our constant duty to take our best shots, see how they work, refine our plans accordingly and, most importantly, to preserve our cash and keep moving forward," said Ashby's memo, which was reviewed by the Tribune-Review.

See Story

Two steps taken to further cut its costs was the removal beginning in May of B737 aircraft and eliminating 14 routes, including some of the new Fort Lauderdale service. The B737 aircraft burn the greatest amount of fuel for the amount of revenue they generate and are in need of a lot of maintenance. The aircraft in question need millions of dollars in long-term repairs, upgrades, refurbishment, heavy checks and can still be returned without financial remedies to their owners. While the company is in bankruptcy it still has flexibility as to how it structures aircraft operations, to further reduce unit costs, in a brutally competitive environment.

Interestingly, these announcement were made the same day that Northwest announced their fare increase and the new increase in revenue was not available when management made the decision to remove these aircraft and pull down 14 mainline flights. In addition, the company still has the bankruptcy court tool to remove aircraft as a means for aircraft financiers to lower lease terms. It’s unclear if the company will retain the additional B737s that are scheduled for return to their owners beginning in May, but the company could elect to keep some of these aircraft if the financiers amend their contract providing the carrier with cost relief, in light of the increased revenue.

US Airways will also eliminate unprofitable lines of flying and the most noticeable reduction is the pull down of some Fort Lauderdale service in another move to preserve its cash.

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, eleven days after unveiling service between Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and the Caribbean and Latin America, US Airways decided to end several of the new flights because they were losing money, Ashby said.

"We chose to say enough is enough," Ashby wrote in an internal e-mail, distributed to some employees this week and obtained yesterday by the Post-Gazette. "We are just not in a forgiving business right now, and we don't have any extra cash lying around."

US Airways announced Friday that it would end service in May to Panama City, Panama, and San Salvador, El Salvador, and would stop direct connections to San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Newark, N.J. The quick retreat raised new questions about the airline's Florida strategy and a transformation plan designed to lift it out of bankruptcy.

"I've had a number of people ask me, 'How could we do that?' " Ashby said, in the e-mail. "Frankly," he said, "it's not a bad question."

The first-ever flights from Fort Lauderdale to Panama City and San Salvador were not booking "up to reasonable levels, despite significant advertising, marketing and sales support," Ashby wrote in the e-mail. That left the money-losing airline with two choices, he said: Either absorb more losses in San Salvador and Panama City while hoping the situation got better or conclude that "enough is enough."

See Story

The initial Fort Lauderdale “focus city†plan included 44 daily departures to 20 destinations, including 11 East Coast cities, 8 Latin American and Caribbean countries and Puerto Rico. In May it will have 34 daily departures to 15 destinations, two of which will be Saturday-only. "This was a difficult decision to make, but [it] preserves the larger project," of the Fort Lauderdale expansion, US Airways spokeswoman Amy Kudwa told the Orlando Sentinel.

Senior management believes that over time Fort Lauderdale can grow its operation with new domestic, Latin American, South American, and Caribbean service, but the company believes the company must reduce its losses in every market possible and conserve cash to comply with the ATSB loan guarantee terms and obtain more exit financing in light of skyrocketing energy prices.

Last Monday the bankruptcy court approved US Airways’ $125 million Debtor-In-Possession ("DIP") financing arrangement with Eastshore Aviation, LCC, and the accompanying RJ service agreement with Air Wisconsin. This agreement came at a time when US Airways’ cash was falling to its seasonal low point and is an extremely positive development for the Arlington-based airline.

The agreement sends another signal to the marketplace that US Airways fortunes have turned, the company is here to stay, and it has “Clear Skies Aheadâ€.

The complex agreement has multiple parts and was negotiated by chief financial officer (CFO) Ron Stanley, who many observers believe is a significant management upgrade over former CFO’s Neil Cohen and Dave Davis.

Key components of the deal include:

$125 million in DIP financing, with $75 million immediately available and two subsequent $25 million increments that can be drawn at a later date, if necessary.

Upon emergence from bankruptcy the $125 million would then convert to equity in the reorganized US Airways.

The $125 million is 50% of the $250 million "target" for new equity management has been seeking and according to Ashby, this agreement helps keep us on track for a rapid and successful emergence from Chapter 11.

The decision gives the company much-needed liquidity as it heads into March, the month when it expects to have the lowest cash reserves of the year, US Airways attorney Brian Leitch told the court.

The second part of the agreement is a standard affiliate carrier RJ service agreement where Air Wisconsin would provide US Airways with competitively priced RJ feed. What is unique about the particular agreement “is that the number of aircraft Air Wisconsin would fly as US Airways Express has not yet been finalized, because it depends at least in part on the outcome of ongoing negotiations between Air Wisconsin and United Airlines. Air Wisconsin currently flies 70 50-seat CRJ-200 RJs for United Express, which is the exact number that the company can put into service with US Airways. “Nothing in our agreement conflicts with what United and Air Wisconsin agree between themselves, but to the extent some of the aircraft currently flown for United are freed up as part of their discussions, they could be placed into service as US Airways Express,†Ashby said.

The AP reported Kelly Lanpheer, an Air Wisconsin spokeswoman, said the deal with US Airways is more than a backup option. "Air Wisconsin sees the progress US Airways has made in its restructuring, and we're looking forward to the opportunity to build a new partnership with US Airways and continue one with United," she said.

Exact details of the agreement were redacted from the public record because of the competitive issues surrounding the placement of regional jets within the marketplace.

Bruce Lakefield said the financing was "a key first step in the process" of the company's emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Leitch said the investment from Air Wisconsin would be a "catalyst" to the company in terms of securing the rest of the money it needs.

Interestingly, there are Wall Street reports US Airways is using the Eastshore deal as leverage to extract further concessions from its current RJ operators, Mesa, Chautauqua, and Trans States Airlines. Sources indicated that US Airways is seeking an equity investment from its partners and lower air service fees in exchange for the right to continue to operate under the US Airways Express network. Moreover, US Airways has not yet affirmed any affiliate carrier RJ air service agreement and if any of the current affiliate carrier’s do not agree to participate in the new business plan, US Airways could reject the current deal and replace the flying with Air Wisconsin jets.

The AP reported "While we're in bankruptcy we still have some flexibility as to how we structure our regional jet operations," said US Airways senior vice president of corporate affairs Chris Chiames. Chiames’ comment is likely a third-party comment to US Airways’ current affiliate RJ operators that basically told them they needed to participate in the new business plan or they could be replaced.

Last Sunday the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted Some observers believe that US Airways, in its search for more investors, will look to its other affiliate carriers -- some of which are independent and some of which it owns -- that carry US Airways passengers to smaller cities and receive fees in return. Lauer, the local airline analyst, believes that US Airways could sell the carriers it owns -- PSA Airlines or Piedmont Airlines -- to raise cash. Or, it could ask other regional carriers with feeder contracts, such as Mesa or Chautauqua, to invest in US Airways as Air Wisconsin did and receive guaranteed service in return. "In the quest for exit financing," Lauer said, US Airways "has zoned in on this whole area of the regional contracts." Chief executives at Phoenix-based Mesa and Indianapolis-based Chautauqua could not be reached for comment.

Leitch noted the loan was well-priced and doesn't have commitment fees or prepayment penalties. If US Airways doesn't pay off the loan, it will convert to equity in the reorganized airline when it emerges from bankruptcy. The cash will also help the company stay above minimum cash requirements on larger loan facility with lenders headed by the federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board (ATSB). The company's creditors committee, GE Capital and the ATSB all said the deal should be approved.

Furthermore, according to loan documents filed with the bankruptcy court, Air Wisconsin would have a stake ranging from at least 19.2% to as much as 26.3% in the reorganized US Airways, with minimum equity of $225 million.

Separately, Dow Jones Newswires reported One positive aspect of the deal for US Airways is that the company can continue shopping around for other financing and regional jet service deals, Leitch said. In exchange for the financing, Air Wisconsin now has a put option, allowing it to place up to 70 jets in US Airways' fleet. Air Wisconsin currently uses its Bombardier CRJ-200 regional jets to fly routes for United. However, since United is in Chapter 11, it can cancel unwanted contracts, and it is unclear if United will keep its Air Wisconsin contract. If that contract is canceled Air Wisconsin would need to find another partner in a difficult market for regional airlines. "Air Wisconsin's looking for a hedge. We can provide that hedge," Leitch said.

Also noteworthy, Air Wisconsin would fly in the US Airways system "at prices equal to or lower than those paid to other regional jet affiliates" and may add ninety-seat jets to the US Airways network. These aircraft could be EMB-190 or CRJ-900 aircraft per LOA 93, but this would have to be flown under the J4J protocol.

In summary, this is another good deal for US Airways.

As the company continues to shop for exit financing, another option to boost liquidity would be for the company to sell its wholly owned companies Piedmont, PSA, and MDA and then have a MOU for the acquiring company to enter into an affiliate carrier air service agreement. In my opinion, if this occurs, US Airways would first sell Piedmont and PSA and if necessary MDA. It’s unclear what the market value of the companies would be, however, during the last United – US Airways merger United agreed to sell the 3 turboprop operators, PSA, Piedmont, and Allegheny Airlines to Atlantic Coast for $200 million.

Finally, US Airways has made two key announcements on the last two Friday’s and key announcements will likely happen in the not-so-distant future with the company scheduled to file its POR on March 15, just eleven days away.

Regards,

USA320Pilot
 
get your resume on monster ace........
read it and weep
As the company continues to shop for exit financing,
as pt barnum once said...theres a sucker born every minute...
from this airline observers perch:
they are in a state of panic pulling out from FLL .....
oils gonna screw them shortly...
they salvoed 11 37's to raise lost cash....
they lost the awac investment already.....
their going to mess themselves in may in PIT and CLT when other carriers ramp up the fare war....
"We chose to say enough is enough," Ashby wrote in an internal e-mail, distributed to some employees this week and obtained yesterday by the Post-Gazette. "We are just not in a forgiving business right now, and we don't have any extra cash lying around."
proof positive of the knee jerk POR....
"In my opinion it is our constant duty to take our best shots, see how they work, refine our plans accordingly and, most importantly, to preserve our cash and keep moving forward," said Ashby's memo, which was reviewed by the Tribune-Review.
wake up,they are flying it into the ground , dude..... B)
 
United's Ted subsidiary to add 9 airplanes and Caribbean service:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi...ack=1&cset=true





Today USAirways' UCT partner :lol: just double-crossed us.

All this time I thought the marriage of the millenium would have USAirways strengths in the East and Caribbean be the contents of our wedding hope chest. Now Ted is heading for the Caribbean.

I guess USairways will have to open routes to the Far East in retaliation! (Can an EMB 170 do PHL-NRT?)
 
USA320Pilot said:
US Airways’ revenue for the month continued to decline and from this observer’s perch, a large portion of the reduction occurred because of liquidation concerns caused by union resistance to participate in the new business plan, AFA and CWA press releases calling for a “strike or chaosâ€￾ job actions, and the Christmas holiday “operational meltdownâ€￾. With passenger fear the company would not be able to obtain ATSB approval for continued use of guaranteed funds passengers “booked awayâ€￾ from the airline causing a significant reduction in revenue.

[post="252629"][/post]​
What happened to those 'greatest website days ever' in January? Weren't we told how great and awesome those days were, and how they were showing that US was on its way to successfully transforming itself? Something like the top revenue days in US Airway's history? What happened to The highest load factor for January in the company's history if passengers were booking away? Oh yeah, how website sales generated so much revenue in January. How could that happen if people were booking away? After all, the pace of January 2005 bookings were ahead of those in Jan 2004.

Can the mods please rename the title of this thread 'News about US Airways, gathered and spun by USA320Pilot'? Thank you.
 
diogenes said:
Thanks for the original post. It's good to know where the company is coming from.
[post="252673"][/post]​

To bad 320 doesn't tell the truth where it is headed instead you get this...

"The agreement sends another signal to the marketplace that US Airways fortunes have turned, the company is here to stay, and it has “Clear Skies Aheadâ€￾."
 
USA320Pilot said:
According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, eleven days after unveiling service between Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and the Caribbean and Latin America, US Airways decided to end several of the new flights because they were losing money, Ashby said.

"We chose to say enough is enough," Ashby wrote in an internal e-mail, distributed to some employees this week and obtained yesterday by the Post-Gazette. "We are just not in a forgiving business right now, and we don't have any extra cash lying around."

US Airways announced Friday that it would end service in May to Panama City, Panama, and San Salvador, El Salvador, and would stop direct connections to San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Newark, N.J. The quick retreat raised new questions about the airline's Florida strategy and a transformation plan designed to lift it out of bankruptcy.

[post="252629"][/post]​



USairways will now be know as the "Wham! Bam! Thank you, Senorita!" carrier.

Eleven days.

USAirways expects a totally new market and concept to be fully developed and profitable in eleven days.

This has got to be an all time record for lunacy. I'd like to say than now I've seen it all, but I am convinced that there is no limit to the destructive imagination of the dimwits in CCY.

Industry experts and observers must be in shock and awe over CCY's unending ability to make every bad situation worse. And it's done with such smug obliviousness to reality.

Amazing, really! :shock:
 
"I've had a number of people ask me, 'How could we do that?' " Ashby said, in the e-mail. "Frankly," he said, "it's not a bad question."

yeah..i agree....i must also add i bet lending people down at the street are too..

"In my opinion it is our constant duty to take our best shots, see how they work, refine our plans accordingly
in this airline observers view....they do not have a viable POA(plan of attack).
look at what he says.....take our best shots - doesn't this make you warm and fuzzy?
see how they work - best laid plans of mice and men....
refine our plans accordingly - somehow the term knee jerk comes to mind....
anyone see my point?? B)
lets try this.....oops...well this may work...oops...
 
Thanks for the update 320... but don't you get sick of this company missing every projection that make???? Whoever their number crunchers are obviously skipped to many classes in school!! Now the new service in FLL is being pulled backed because bookings are not to the level the projected!! Again, who is responsible for these shortcomings!! Regardless of what they attempt to do they are never accurate!! I say it is time to clean house and find some individuals that have industry experience and lets get this coming moving in the right opportunity. They have been given every opportunity in the world by employees groups and every other entity to regroup and move the company in the right direction and they continue to do nothing but produce failed attempts. When will the BOD see the light that these individuals just doesn't have what it takes to make us a winner??? As far as the Christmas meltdown, my guess is that certain individuals were all set to get a nice bonus for coming in under budget on the expense bottom line and it back fired and caused everyone great embrassment. Why else would a company and the individuals directly responsible for the operation of one of their most critical hubs allow it to get so understaffed??? It did not go from being staffed properly in December to being 200 understaffed in January, which is one of the slower times of the year, just because of what happened at Christmas. If it was understaffed 200 in January then it was 200 understaffed in December but someone was all set to get a nice bonus for keeping the expenses down thru the end of the year. Even the goverment report said management screwed up!! Please enlighten me as to why there is no accountability among those in CCY when it comes to these gross shortcomings??? If you screwed up and landed at the wrong airport, I'm sure they wouldn't just let you blow it off that you miscalculated a little!! However, that is the consistent standard response from CCY to any time they attempt something and it does not have the desired results. It is really getting old and I feel calls for some drastic change in leadership!!!
 
Interesting times are brewing that's for sure. U is desperate for cash...can they survive the cash drain long enough for either fuel prices to drop, or for fare increases to stick???

There's got to more to the plan than meets the eye, otherwise the Jan numbers are really disheartening....
 
Gosh, there's so many targets .......

"the airline did not disclose what aircraft had their leases affirmed and payments made."

It's all part of the public record, sport. Maybe a little less time clipping newspaper articles and a little more time on research would be helpful.

"With passenger fear the company would not be able to obtain ATSB approval for continued use of guaranteed funds passengers “booked awayâ€￾ from the airline causing a significant reduction in revenue."

I guess that's why the company said this in announcing Jan traffic results:

The 68.3 percent passenger load factor, which was the highest for any January in the company’s history, is a 3.9 percentage point increase compared to January 2004.

Let's see. Record load factors - that sure was a lot of "booking away". What hurt Jan financials was this:

"Mainline system passenger unit revenue for January 2005 is expected to decrease between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent compared to January 2004."

Offering all those cheap fares (as low as 1/3 of cost) was what did the damage, although it kept traffic numbers up (contrary to your assertion).

"The B737 aircraft burn the greatest amount of fuel for the amount of revenue they generate"

Interesting that the company uses 737's to fly shorter average stage lengths (hence less utilization per day), then complains that they burn more fuel. On equivalent stage lengths, the 737-300 & -400 burns less fuel per mile than the A319 & A320, while producing more ASM's (which can produce more revenue). The return of these 11 aircraft couldn't have anything to do with the motion to reject the leases on two dozen Boeings - filed last Nov - could it?

Since Ashby's email has made it into the press, here's one part you've neglected to mention:

" In terms of looking toward the future, the management team in
Marketing and Planning has been working together to answer a question
we all want answered, which light-heartedly we refer to as the "what do
we want to be when we grow up?" meetings."

"It's a big effort, it will take a little more time, but it
is vital that we use the opportunities offered in Chapter 11 to
restructure ourselves in a way that makes sense to customers and thus
enhances our profitability."

All the talk of the business plan is a little premature, since the business plan is still being formulated.....

Jim
 

Latest posts

Back
Top