Will Delta MAINLINE ever return on the PVD-ATL route?

[PBI2FLL]

I never understood DL's logic as it relates to PVD, especially on the ATL route. WHY? Is the demand no longer there? OR, do they believe they've right sized the PVD market with all RJs? Hard to believe though that there were 757s and an occasional 767 on this route up until a couple of years ago.....
What would it take to get mainline back? An Airtran entry?

Also, DTW and MSP Airbus service...will it stay?

 

[Kev3188]

Well, PVD-MSP is already flown by Airlink (CRJ-900 on XJ).

A cursory check of PARS shows that PVD-DTW is mainline through June (I checked 04.Apr. & 05.June.09)...

 

[BoeingBoy]

I never understood DL's logic as it relates to PVD, especially on the ATL route. WHY?

According to the DOT, the PVD-ATL market averages less than 10 passengers a day. That means that most passengers would be connecting in ATL and not ATL O&D traffic. Given that WN has a fairly large presence in PVD, DL probably figures that the yields in many markets are too low to make using mainline aircraft worthwhile - better to use a smaller aircraft and have a larger percentage of seats filled with higher yield traffic going to places that WN doesn't serve.

Jim

 

[Singleflyer]

Boeingboy,

I assume the numbers are close to the same for MHT-ATL as well.

When the change was made during BK I wrote to DL and was told if I wanted big planes I had to fly out of BOS, and they were njot coming back. A US gate agent also told me all of DL ground equipment was repased with smaller Comair equipment thaqt could not handle a MD88.

Also in the wintertime the MHT-MSP the mainline is replaced with a larger RJ. This is nothing new here, just a seasonal adjustment

 

[PBI2FLL]

According to the DOT, the PVD-ATL market averages less than 10 passengers a day.

:huh:
WOW, can that be right?? Surprising for a big city like Atlanta. Not enough yankees want to fly to ATL? I wonder what the percentage of O&D traffic is from BOS and/or BDL as compared to PVD?

 

[BoeingBoy]

Boeingboy,

I assume the numbers are close to the same for MHT-ATL as well.

Both markets - PVD/ATL and MHT/ATL - average less than 10 O&D passengers per day according to the Consumer Air Fare Report for the 2nd quarter 2008 (that's the latest available). Table 1A of that report lists markets that average 10 or more O&D passengers/day and neither PVD/ATL nor MHT/ATL is included.

There are 3 PVD-XXX markets that average over 10 O&D passengers/day - DCA, IAD, & TPA. For MHT there are 6 markets - DCA, EWR, IAD, JFK, LGA, & TPA. Not surprisingly, the markets WN serves - PVD or MHT-TPA - have 8-10 times more O&D passengers than the other markets.

As I intimated in the earlier post, there would certainly be more passengers on the average flight, but those extra passengers would be connecting in a hub enroute to/from PVD or MHT and not O&D for the PVD/ATL or MHT/ATL market.

Jim

 

[USAir757]

Doesn't US still have mainline into PVD? Like A319/20s and 757s? Using your explanation, that wouldn't make much sense (?)

 

[markkus757]

Correction: Table 1A is the wrong table. Table 6 is the one you need to use for ALL markets that have at least 10 O&D per day.

Since 2001, this data will show:

PVD-ATL peaked in 2Q05 at 388.
PVD-ATL had a low of 107 in the 1Q08.

Coincidentally, the average one-way fare was lowest in the 4Q04 at $143.13 and the highest was in the 2Q08 (both very near those pax peaks) at $331.07. DL had 757s when the fares were low and now has CRJs when the fares are high - good for DL, very bad for demand.

From DL's point of view, this is probably great and what they want, from a passenger's, well, not very attractive in any way.

To answer the OP question, I'd say a low fare competitive action (Airtran) is needed to sway DLs current course of action in this market. The good news is that there is a large middle ground between those peak numbers. I'd say that PVD-ATL could be a 250 passenger market at $200-$250 each way with better/more service/capacity.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Correction: Table 1A is the wrong table. Table 6 is the one you need to use for ALL markets that have at least 10 O&D per day.

Correction noted and thanks - I should have read the rest of the sentence that gives the content of table 1A.

From PHL, US only has Express/E190 service to PVD and MHT except for 1 flight/day to each. More of the flights from CLT to PVD/MHT are on bigger equipment, but the average passenger load is also higher from CLT.

Jim

 

[markkus757]

No problem Jim, I only knew that since I'm familiar with those tables!

Happy New Year!