Aircraft Retirements

[1AA]

This guy predicts a complete shutdown..

https://www.fliegerfaust.com/airline-news---2645648431.html

According to multiple reliable sources...... Sounds like CNN reporting fear. A total shutdown will probably happen if the virus spreads worse and more deaths add up. It's a wait and see game if the people in the USA take it seriously and comply with basic precautions.

 

[La Li Lu Le Lo]

There's also a thought of having the over-the-road driving done "drone-style" and having trucks delivered to distribution areas parking area, with a live on-the-ground hostler handling the docking.

I have seen that version as well. That is the thing with emerging technology, there are going to be a few approaches.

My take on this is it will cost a few jobs but the drivers still in the industry will have a lot better working conditions. There is also the fact that since the driving will be remote they can keep those trucks running 24/7 since they can run 2 or 3 shifts. Fuel stations are going to have to do a hell of a lot of hiring on the first few generations of automated trucks that is for sure.

 

[1986Mekanic]

According to multiple reliable sources...... Sounds like CNN reporting fear. A total shutdown will probably happen if the virus spreads worse and more deaths add up. It's a wait and see game if the people in the USA take it seriously and comply with basic precautions.

Well , with a name like "Fliegerfaust" it has to be accurate.... Right?

 

[V.O. Reason]

One thing to remember about this situation we are in.
There were no airlines in danger of bankruptcy or any other such thing prior to all of this.
The industry was as healthy as it ever was.
This reduction in all operations was due to no fault of there own and I for one don’t believe the government will allow any of the largest carriers to fail in the near future.
In fact much of what happened has been forced on the airlines by the government.
Down the road perhaps there could be a bankruptcy or two but for now the airlines are going to be maintained as long as possible
The banks will be more apt to allow the carriers to restructure loans to maintain cash flow and pay the bills.
This is not as it was after 9/11 it’s worse and will take longer to recover.
If in a year to 18 months we don’t see improvements that are caused by the company’s themselves then yeah maybe but for now this is new territory and we all better hang on for a bumpy ride.
If you can get out and retire I would say now is the time

 

[1AA]

One thing to remember about this situation we are in.
There were no airlines in danger of bankruptcy or any other such thing prior to all of this.
The industry was as healthy as it ever was.
This reduction in all operations was due to no fault of there own and I for one don’t believe the government will allow any of the largest carriers to fail in the near future.
In fact much of what happened has been forced on the airlines by the government.
Down the road perhaps there could be a bankruptcy or two but for now the airlines are going to be maintained as long as possible
The banks will be more apt to allow the carriers to restructure loans to maintain cash flow and pay the bills.
This is not as it was after 9/11 it’s worse and will take longer to recover.
If in a year to 18 months we don’t see improvements that are caused by the company’s themselves then yeah maybe but for now this is new territory and we all better hang on for a bumpy ride.
If you can get out and retire I would say now is the time

American Airlines, which has the most debt among U.S. carriers, only has enough cash to cover only about 4.8 months.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlines-cash-reserves-coronavirus/

 

[AMFAinMIAMI]

American Airlines, which has the most debt among U.S. carriers, only has enough cash to cover only about 4.8 months.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-airlines-cash-reserves-coronavirus/

1AA, If your going to post an article and then quote what they say then put it ALL there. that 4.8 months does not include any of the money in loans or bail out from the government.

Adding to the already feelings of anxiety that most of our fellow employees have as to their future not good. Just a question as well, knowing that AA keeps all financial info close to the vest, do you really think that AA is going to give an accurate account of all the money they have? They hid lots of stuff which got found when they tried to dump our pension remember that?

 

[1AA]

1AA, If your going to post an article and then quote what they say then put it ALL there. that 4.8 months does not include any of the money in loans or bail out from the government.

Adding to the already feelings of anxiety that most of our fellow employees have as to their future not good. Just a question as well, knowing that AA keeps all financial info close to the vest, do you really think that AA is going to give an accurate account of all the money they have? They hid lots of stuff which got found when they tried to dump our pension remember that?

Yes I know what it says and the link is there for anyone to read. I see you read the article. If I quote the entire article then it's plagiarism. That's why it's normal to quote an article and give a reference to it when available.

 

[AMFAinMIAMI]

One thing to remember about this situation we are in.
There were no airlines in danger of bankruptcy or any other such thing prior to all of this.
The industry was as healthy as it ever was.
This reduction in all operations was due to no fault of there own and I for one don’t believe the government will allow any of the largest carriers to fail in the near future.
In fact much of what happened has been forced on the airlines by the government.
Down the road perhaps there could be a bankruptcy or two but for now the airlines are going to be maintained as long as possible
The banks will be more apt to allow the carriers to restructure loans to maintain cash flow and pay the bills.
This is not as it was after 9/11 it’s worse and will take longer to recover.
If in a year to 18 months we don’t see improvements that are caused by the company’s themselves then yeah maybe but for now this is new territory and we all better hang on for a bumpy ride.
If you can get out and retire I would say now is the time

I as well do not think the US Government will allow any of the BIG three to fail. I will go as far to say JB & SWA will be ok as well. With the last several offers AA has come up with to entice employees to retire, furlow, leave of absence, what ever they want to call it, in the years you have here at AA, do you think those offers are to benefit AA or the outgoing employees? If they really wanted to shed the numbers they could of done it long before the contract was signed.

How many protected their 401k funds before the shut down of flights. How many adjusted IRA accounts? AA has even admitted they made a mistake with the pilots and the number they were going to let go. (aka 600) Many have felt AA would file BK again, that has been said long before this CV19.

Unless AA puts out a serious package for the older guys to go many are going to ride it out to see How long it takes them to try and cut into our contract, change or delay the money we all have waited many yrs for, taking these packages unless you have just had enough is a mistake IMHO.

The TWU/IAM & AA have looked out for themselves for years and we the employees have covered their mistakes from our pockets.

 

[Kev3188]

+1

Also, while the article does note that federal aid could in theory double a carrier's timeline, it's important to remember that NO CARRIER has been awarded/accepted anything yet.

The time has long past for people to be anxious about what's going on. No one should be panicking, but everyone should absolutely be planning for a life post AA/DL/UA/WN... Save that cash, polish that resume...

 

[Kev3188]

I as well do not think the US Government will allow any of the BIG three to fail. I will go as far to say JB & SWA will be ok as well.

With all due respect, this is kind of thinking is lulling people into a false sense of security. None of the Big 3 are too big to fail.

 

[1AA]

With all due respect, this is kind of thinking is lulling people into a false sense of security. None of the Big 3 are too big to fail.

Keep an eye on AA's cash reserves. You need money to go into BK to reorganize. Many expenses when in BK. AA needs the government bail out money to get through the summer. That's our only positive outlook getting through this crisis. One step at a time is the only way to move forward but do not get distracted by the bailout money as a false sense of security. We need to hope for the best and also hope AA will do good for the company and its employees. Remember that Parker is no stranger to BK.
That's the one thing that concerns me the most.

 

[AMFAinMIAMI]

With all due respect, this is kind of thinking is lulling people into a false sense of security. None of the Big 3 are too big to fail.

KEV; Giving people a false sense of security was never a part of what I meant. I should know I am with my 5th airline and every one of the others is Gone. I've got 40 yr in the industry so I know that even the BIG boys can go away. Eastern was my BIG Boy.. Hoping that most of the employees here at AA remember what happened after 911 and put away the required funds to deal with the situation going forward. The BIG BOYS have gobbled up the smaller carriers or forced them to go away. Just to protect the market share they wanted or have. Panic is throughout the entire country and everywhere in our industry, so it was my attempt to cut down on rumor or sensationalized news reports.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

CremaDiLimone I hope you are right.

However, strictly from a numbers perspective what you are saying does not make much sense.

There is no need to maintain American Airlines at great expense to the taxpayer when you have other airlines running at such low capacity.

i don't understand here. all the airlines have debt. how can it be perceived that the govt. is maintaining aa at the expense of the taxpayer, but other airlines are not maintained at the expense of the taxpayer?

again, what the govt. has done and what they are saying - the airline industry won't be allowed to collapse, it's a national security issue.

 

[CremaDiLimone]

With all due respect, this is kind of thinking is lulling people into a false sense of security. None of the Big 3 are too big to fail.

if the govt. didn't lift a finger to help the airlines or remained silent about the future of the airline industry, i'd be worried. the exact opposite has occurred.

i don't feel 100% secure, but i believe they won't allow any of the major airlines to fail due to this virus.

 

[Kev3188]

...so it was my attempt to cut down on rumor or sensationalized news reports.

Copy that.

again, what the govt. has done and what they are saying - the airline industry won't be allowed to collapse, it's a national security issue.

"The industry" =/= individual carriers.

if the govt. didn't lift a finger to help the airlines or remained silent about the future of the airline industry, i'd be worried. the exact opposite has occurred.

i don't feel 100% secure, but i believe they won't allow any of the major airlines to fail due to this virus.

I can appreciate your cautious optimism. I don't have anywhere near as rosy of outlook. Here's hoping you're right!