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The chances are high that Bombardier and Embraer will get big chunks of AA's orderbook as well as just about any other manufacturer.
Add in that UA is in a position to increase their large RJ fleet, DL still has a few more large RJ orders they could place, and US has said they want to order more large RJs and the US industry alone is looking at a massive RJ refleeting initiative.
Latest rumor I heard was Obama will give amnesty and free education to illegals in exchange for getting on tax roles. Look for hispanics, to get free government A&P training and manuals to have spanish option. The shortage you speak of will be short lived.Sounds good but who is going to fly them or fix them?
The advantage of bigger planes is you can move more people with fewer workers, the supply of Pilots and mechanics is plummetting. RJs fed off the fact that there were a lot of people willing to work for the crap wages they offered as a means to get to the majors, well now most of the majors suck, so why would anyomne want to invest in a carreer and put in what amounts to internships at commuters?
Sounds good but who is going to fly them or fix them?
The advantage of bigger planes is you can move more people with fewer workers, the supply of Pilots and mechanics is plummetting. RJs fed off the fact that there were a lot of people willing to work for the crap wages they offered as a means to get to the majors, well now most of the majors suck, so why would anyomne want to invest in a carreer and put in what amounts to internships at commuters?
FWA,
I think you are smart enough to understand the hub dynamics... you are correct that there will be replacement of smaller RJs. Embraer basically gave AA as much relieve on their existing fleet via the BK process, although Embraer could take back more older aircraft if AA orders new larger aircraft.
The Ejets have so much higher passenger appeal than the Canadair RJs - even the 900s - that it is doubtful that AA can build a large RJ fleet solely on Canadair models, even if they do have lower costs.
The large RJs are necessary to allow AA's hubs to compete against those of other airlines; AA's smaller domestic size than other competitors makes it necessary for AA to use large RJs to remain in some markets where other carriers are using mainline aircraft.
Based on UA's experience when they added 70 seaters, it is very possible that large RJs could lead to parking small mainline aircraft; AA's challenge is to redeploy mainline capacity elsewhere such as to Latin America where AA has a greater ability to add capacity so that AA mainline's overall size does not shrink.
Take a look at traffic statistics for the network carriers as of the end of the year. DL's capacity carried on regional jets is down over 5% for the year and 9% for December.
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No other carrier is doing the same thing. It is possible that the mergers between UA-CO and AA-US - if it occurs could result in the same dynamic but so far those trends are not occurring.