AirplaneFan,
I'm usually right on board with most of what you write here, but I have some disagreements:
"I believe SW is responding too slowly against JBLU."
Responding to what? How many markets do we share with them? I think both airlines are avoiding each other, and will continue to do so for some time. And how would SWA respond to a competitor that appears to be taking great pains to avoid Southwest? If we start going after jetBlue, then we come out looking like the evil monster of the low fare carriers by starting this little war. Think how AA get crucified by the media every time they go to run some upstart carrier out of business. Southwest would go from being a media darling to a media monster in about five seconds, I could promise you that.
"SW needs to be expanding its network and quit being conservative."
So what do you think those 42 new planes will be used for?
"They also should get ready to pounce on St. Louis, Pittsburgh opportunities when the opportunities are right."
What makes you think they aren't doing that, already? Why do you think SWA has been so conservative in the first place? It makes no sense to be just opening cities for the sake of opening cities, especially when there may be bigger fish to fry coming soon. In addition, it costs a significant chunk of change (and I do mean significant) to open a new city. Think of the costs of construction on the gates, advertising, marketing, training new employees, etc. Better to save that money to use at a time when one of those "must have" opportunites presents themselves. At a time when profits were low, and when we were even in doubt as to whether we'd make profits in some quarters, it makes no sense to be spending millions to open a new city just to say we opened one. Not when SWA could simply play the game of "connect the dots" at stations where they're already established. And it's worked well. Those new long hauls are doing extremely well.
In addition, there is a definite risk in opening a new city. Once again, with profits looking like they were, I don't think it made sense to be taking that sort of risk.
"The US govt tells us that the US has been out of the recession for the past 2 years yet SW does not announce cities."
Pfft -- the government's full of it.
Sorry, but I am nothing if not confident in the abilities of our CFO. The man has played a huge role in keeping us profitable in the worst cirxxxstances in this industry's history. If he says play it careful, then I believe him. He knows far more than any of us about the economics of this industry, as his track record has proven.
But with 42 planes confirmed for next year, my gut instinct is that we're getting ready to get back to some serious growth.