IT WAS JUST A MATTER OF TIME !

[does this plane go to paris]

WT,

The report states that the very Customers Airlines are trying their hardest to attract right now, the Business Traveler, are turned off by the Customer Service and the fee's and the policies of the airlines.

WN's ranking at the top is due to the fact that they are NOT nickel and dime'ing the Customer to death.

SLC is bought up in many of your posts and your point of view is that DL knows how to compete with WN in SLC therefore, ATL will be safe.

SLC is a mid-market small hub. SLC was picked up from Morris Air and if WN had wanted to grow their operation, they would have. DL uses's it as their western connecting city.

LAX was a large operation that DL picked up from WA. You once saw Western and Delta flights from LAX to LAS, now you don't, because, the market is controlled by WN. Should one infer that Delta is a poor competitor based on that? No.

The 40th Birthday party that WN is throwing with $40.00 fare's is being supported on Airtran.com. The same fare, flight distance's and fare's are being advertised. I would not want to be in any airline Revenue Management control room today because they are seeing the extent and the breath of what the new Southwest/Airtran can influence.

 

[eolesen]

Trying to guess WN's actions in ATL based on what happened in SLC isn't something I'd be doing. I'd love to dig into the census data to give you some other indicators like households and family size, but it's not published yet at that level of detail. What I do know is that ATL is in the top 10 largest cities, and SLC barely makes the top 50.

SLC's catchment area is approx 1.7M according to UT state estimates. ATL's catchment area is approx 5.8M, or about 3x larger for those playing the home edition. Adjust for household size, and ATL is about 3.5x larger than SLC (UT has a larger number of people per household...).

 

[signals]

WT,

The report states that the very Customers Airlines are trying their hardest to attract right now, the Business Traveler, are turned off by the Customer Service and the fee's and the policies of the airlines.

WN's ranking at the top is due to the fact that they are NOT nickel and dime'ing the Customer to death.

SLC is bought up in many of your posts and your point of view is that DL knows how to compete with WN in SLC therefore, ATL will be safe.

SLC is a mid-market small hub. SLC was picked up from Morris Air and if WN had wanted to grow their operation, they would have. DL uses's it as their western connecting city.

LAX was a large operation that DL picked up from WA. You once saw Western and Delta flights from LAX to LAS, now you don't, because, the market is controlled by WN. Should one infer that Delta is a poor competitor based on that? No.

The 40th Birthday party that WN is throwing with $40.00 fare's is being supported on Airtran.com. The same fare, flight distance's and fare's are being advertised. I would not want to be in any airline Revenue Management control room today because they are seeing the extent and the breath of what the new Southwest/Airtran can influence.

$40 fares+free bags+great customer service=Mission Accomplished for Delta

Is it me, or is WN saying and :censored: to Delta's peaceful coexistance proposal?
The emoticon for 'censored' is out of order but you get it B)

 

[700UW]

WT,

Your wrong again, lol!

Southwest Air tops in service, others lag on fees

Southwest continues to outperform rivals with consumers, according to the survey of 2,000 consumers.

The low-fare carrier posted an ACSI score of 81 in part because it has not taken anything away from customers and then offered it back for a fee, VanAmburg said.

Explain how they are the most profitable airline over the past 20 years and are the highest unionized airline and the highest paid in the industry?

 

[WorldTraveler]

WT,

The report states that the very Customers Airlines are trying their hardest to attract right now, the Business Traveler, are turned off by the Customer Service and the fee's and the policies of the airlines.

WN's ranking at the top is due to the fact that they are NOT nickel and dime'ing the Customer to death.

SLC is bought up in many of your posts and your point of view is that DL knows how to compete with WN in SLC therefore, ATL will be safe.

SLC is a mid-market small hub. SLC was picked up from Morris Air and if WN had wanted to grow their operation, they would have. DL uses's it as their western connecting city.

LAX was a large operation that DL picked up from WA. You once saw Western and Delta flights from LAX to LAS, now you don't, because, the market is controlled by WN. Should one infer that Delta is a poor competitor based on that? No.

The 40th Birthday party that WN is throwing with $40.00 fare's is being supported on Airtran.com. The same fare, flight distance's and fare's are being advertised. I would not want to be in any airline Revenue Management control room today because they are seeing the extent and the breath of what the new Southwest/Airtran can influence.

WN has had deep discount fares for years including the $30 and 35 birthday fares that were worse than what they are running now – and they happened long before WN set up shop in ATL.
Trying to paint WN’s BD sale as something targeted against DL defies the fact that WN has done the very same type of thing multiple times before, and ran even deeper discounted fares on other occasions – such as during the fall.
Every airline including WN revenue manages. Each will take as much of this sale as they want – or not. Only airlines that advertise the sale (WN/FL) are required to meet DOT requirements for availability of inventory. Other airlines can match the fare and offer no seats if they don’t want to take the fares.
WN is a master at marketing…. But you once again try to believe that WN is pulling something out of its hat which other airlines haven’t figured out.
This is WN’s 40th birthday celebration…. Nothing more… let them have cake… if you want a piece, they’ll sell you some.
---
Again, no one is doubting that WN is running a good airline, has a strong customer following, and makes money. But all of those things say nothing about WN’s ability to “win” in other carriers’ hubs.
Sure, customers, including business travelers don’t like the network carrier “unbundled pricing” model which forces many passengers to pay for products that were once free.
But all of this STILL doesn’t change the fact that WN has YET to win more than a 25% passenger share or a 20% revenue share in any network carrier hub (defined here as a city where the largest carrier boards more than 2500 pax per day in local passengers, even if looking only at US passengers, since that is the only market group in which WN currently competes EXCEPT in DEN.

Here are key network carrier hub markets and WN’s passenger and revenue shares, based on 2010 4th quarter DOT data.
PHL WN pax share 21%, 16% rev share
DEN 26, 23
LAX 21, 15
SLC 23, 18
Note that even though WN has more than 20% of US domestic passengers, they haven’t broken the 20% barrier in terms of revenue.
PIT 20, 18
Note that even though US basically pulled down PIT, WN STILL does not have more than a 20% revenue or passenger share.
STL 41,38 in 2010 …. 2009 36, 31
STL is the best example of where WN grew to the point that the network hub carrier could no longer survive as a hub – but WN’s share in STL is more than 1 ½ times larger than in most other airline hubs.
Now here are the numbers for ATL for FL
ATL 22% pax share 15% revenue share….
Not much different than other hubs…. Using other hubs as guides, WN likely will be able to grow 2-4 more percent at most… that is all they have ever done in any market EXCEPT for DEN.
---
Glad you mention LAX, because so few people understand what DL has done there. Your view of history is a bit revisionist too and not exactly favors WN’s actions.
Those who remember history know that AA, DL, and US all had mergers/acquisitions in the 1980 time frame that involved west coast carriers. UA was long established on the west coast. Now four network carriers were battling it out. Most of the cuts on the west coast by AA, DL, and US occurred by the mid 90s…. even in 2000, WN had only a 20% passenger share and less than 10% revenue share.
DL focused its efforts on defending its territory on the east coast and in capturing market share after Eastern collapsed.
Yet DL still has managed to grow its presence at LAX.
Do you realize that despite being the largest passenger carrier at LAX, WN is #4 in revenue behind AA, DL, UA/CO? Every airline is in the business of carrying revenue and AA, DL, and UA have all managed to maintain their revenue share advantages in LAX over WN (even if restricted just to domestic markets to provide a “fair” playing field).
But let’s focus on the east coast since you and others think that DL made a mistake in walking away from the west coast.
Here is the share of passengers boarded on the east coast over a 20 year period, right after the round of mergers in the 90s until the end of last year.
1990 US 22%, DL 16%, AA 13, UA 10
2010 DL 26%, US 15%, AA 12%, UA/CO 17%, FL/WN 17%
Kinda validates that DL did the right thing in defending its core presence on the east coast. Not only is DL the largest carrier east of the Mississippi, but they are by a wide margin and all the other mergers in the industry haven’t changed that.

Further, if you look at capacity going into the fall – when all of the capacity cuts for the network carriers is to take effect, do you realize that DL has more domestic seats available than WN/FL or UA/CO and DL has a sizeable advantage in the number of flights?
Delta has spent decades developing its presence on the east coast and the evidence is overwhelming that other carriers, not DL, will fail at the hands of discount carriers.
Every piece of evidence points to the fact that DL has been by far the most successful US airline at defending its domestic market from low fare carriers, it has grown at the expense of other network carriers who have not been as successful in defending their market share, and despite the cuts in capacity other carriers are making in the US (UA metal alone in the US will be down 10%), DL as of Oct 2011 schedules remains the largest domestic carrier on the basis of seats offered, even considering the FL/WN merger.

Trying to guess WN's actions in ATL based on what happened in SLC isn't something I'd be doing. I'd love to dig into the census data to give you some other indicators like households and family size, but it's not published yet at that level of detail. What I do know is that ATL is in the top 10 largest cities, and SLC barely makes the top 50.

SLC's catchment area is approx 1.7M according to UT state estimates. ATL's catchment area is approx 5.8M, or about 3x larger for those playing the home edition. Adjust for household size, and ATL is about 3.5x larger than SLC (UT has a larger number of people per household...).

Eric,
Glad you want to look to census data but that isn’t necessary… the ATL market was stimulated by low fares years ago. There will be no “southwest effect” in Atlanta…. The market has had plenty of low fare competition over a nationwide scope. Census data won’t tell you anything that airline market specific data can’t tell you –based on how the ATL market has developed for multiple carriers.
Further, you should look up the concept of Reproducibility… it is a cornerstone of the scientific method and it says that under similar conditions, the same result should occur regardless of the setting or person conducting the test.
Further, there are rules of interference that form the science of logic that say that when premise X and premise Y etc reach a conclusion, the outcome can be LOGICALLY inferred to produce the same result regardless of how many times the same premises are applied.
For some reason (I think it’s apparent why), you and others are trying very hard to prove that all of DL’s history of dealing with low fare carriers in general and WN in particular will no longer apply EVEN THOUGH you cannot identify the premises or factors of reproducibility that will change…. in direct opposition to the laws of reproducibility AND the laws of logical inference.
I can appreciate how badly you want to prove that DL will fail at the hands of WN (and that I will be wrong) but the simple fact is that there is no evidence to support that conclusion and therefore there is no logical or rational reason to think it will change now, EVEN THOUGH you cannot identify WHY it should not be any different.
When you and others can identify tangible, proven factors that will make things different in ATL than they have been elsewhere, let me know. Right now, with all due respect, your conclusions are irrational (in the sense of the use of the word to discuss logic) and unscientific.
.
When the ^DL will die^ fan club can come up with some sort of reasonable logic, you might be able to convince someone you are right.... right now it is nothing more than emotional hype which will soon show that it is made of nothing of substance.

 

[eolesen]

WT, if you're happy to pay the minimum for one of our consulting engagements, I'd be more than happy to walk you thru the revenue assumptions. We expect to get paid for opinions and insights in that area. Forgive me if I choose to be a little more cursory in the table scraps I give away here for free.

I really enjoy how you assume everyone not on the DL bandwagon wants them to fail. You seem to be taking Bush's "you're either with us or you're against us" view on this.

 

[WorldTraveler]

With all due respect, what you and others say here tells me and others volumes about what you actually know about the industry.
.
You and others continue with yet another chorus of "DL is doomed and WN will crush them" even though you (collectively) can't bring a single piece of information to say that there is any valid reason to believe that WN will achieve something in ATL they have yet to achieve anywhere else against either DL or any other network airline.
.
Besides, what is your expertise anyway? On one thread we hear that you are an expert on passenger rights then the next thread you are an expert on IT, then it is airport staffing, and now you want to tell us that you are an expert on network and revenue management. I thought you spent most of your career on the ticket counter at JFK and then got a job in AA's passenger service management group.
.
I don't expect you to be on the DL bandwagon. I do expect that if you discuss the subject, you know something about it.
You are either knowledgeable on the subject or you are not.
.
I have yet to see anything you have ever posted on this forum to demonstrate that you have expert knowledge about network or revenue maangement issues.
.
You wanna talk about AA staffing models and it's all your conversation - 'cause that's not something I pretend to know anything about.
.
Expertise about any subject is defined by accurately discussing the data and issues involved with that subject. I have yet to see you or anyone else present any evidence to show where WN has won in another carrier's hub.
Further, you violate all laws of logical inference and reproducibility in continuing with your present mantra, expecting us to believe that DL and WN both will abandon their successful business fomulae from the past to produce a result which no one except for you has said is likely to occur.
.
There is more than ample evidence to show that WN has had more success in overtaking former AA hubs than they have in those of any other carrier.
Even in PIT, a hub which US abandoned, WN has about half the revenue share it has in STL - or BNA - or SJC.
And not surprisingly, DL is the largest revenue carrier in AA's former hub at RDU.
.
Why do you think there is an onslaight of new low fare carrier routes into ORD and DFW? Because they see AA as the soft vulnerable underbelly of the industry and there are huge amounts of revenue controlled by AA that those carriers realistically expect to capture - BECAUSE THE HISTORY OF LFC INCURSION INTO AA MARKETS HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL.
.
Looks like Spirit is the latest to expand at ORD with new service on 5 of AA's top revenue markets.
AA is by far the largest revenue carrier in these five markets despite UA's larger size at ORD. Coincidence?
.
But you aren't seeing that same level of low fare carrier expansion in any other carrier's hubs or even targeted at other carriers.
.
In reality, you are trying to desperately to believe that someone else has a revenue problem when it is so obvious who is really the most vulnerable in the industry.
.
This quarter is about a week from being over.... we'll see in less than a month how revenue for the industry stacked up. I'm not expecting there to be any change in the recent trends of DL and UA outperforming the industry on RASM and AA underperforming. .

Come up with logical explanations and evidence from the past to support your position and that would be the beginning of demonstrating your expertise.
.
Honestly, though, Eric, if you had something relevant to say, we'd have seen it already.

 

[eolesen]

Whatever, WT. I've done quite a bit in the 25 years I've been in the industry... Distribution, ancillary revenue, business process alignment, e-commerce, IT, procurement, revenue integrity, weight & balance, ticketing, ground ops, security.... and that's the short list.

You can go ahead and minimize that with a "jack of all trades, master of none" slur if it makes you feel better, but the fact still remains I've been paid to poke my nose into far more corners of the industry than you did or probably ever will...

Again, you seem to interpret "WN is going to do quite well in ATL" and "WN's entry in ATL will be unlike any other entry into a market" as saying "DL is doomed".

Further, you should look up the concept of Reproducibility… it is a cornerstone of the scientific method and it says that under similar conditions, the same result should occur regardless of the setting or person conducting the test.

Ok, Captain Reproducable:

Show me an example where WN acquired 30+ gates in a top 10 market, and I'll start taking your analysis more seriously.

Right now, you seem fixated on comparing markets which are essentially geographic anomalies -- cities far too small to support a true O&D hub, but became a connecting hub based purely on geography. RDU, BNA, PIT, and

Not coincidentally, those are the airports which support your thesis....

The one exception to that is LAX, and that's a much tougher comparison in that you're not just dealing with one airport in that area, but several. LAX is complemented by large (and even overlapping) operations at BUR and SNA. SFO functions in concert with OAK and SJC, again with certain overlaps.

MDW is probably the best example of invading another airline's hub, except that it too is a anomaly in that ORD is the only airport in the country which has successfully supported two airline hubs at the same airport which are usually within 10-15% of each other historically for market share.

Not coincidentally, it's also one of the top three markets in the US.

So... Ask yourself seriously if NK is moving into Chicago because they think AA (or UA) is vulnerable, or is it simply because Willie Sutton's advice seems appropriate?...

Four of the markets they're entering are between big population centers -- #3 ORD to #10 BOS, #1 LGA, #11 DTW, #7 FLL, and #4 DFW.

The fifth market, MCO is somewhere in the high 20's, but a given because of all the Dizzies and convention traffic.

I'm sure that it's entirely relevant trying to compare a dozen flights in five markets to 300+ flights in dozens of markets......


From 2009 population estimates:

	                                July 2009       July 2008
1  NYC-Northern NJ-LI                    19,069,796      18,968,501
2  Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA  12,874,797      12,768,395
3  Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI   9,580,567       9,515,636
4  Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX       6,447,615       6,301,085
5  PHL-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD    5,968,252       5,940,496
6  Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX        5,867,489       5,726,705
7  Miami-FLL-Pompano Beach, FL           5,547,051       5,501,752
8  DC-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV  5,476,241       5,377,936
9  Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA    5,475,213       5,385,586
10 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH        4,588,680       4,544,705 
11 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI            4,403,437       4,423,781  (-)
12 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ           4,364,094       4,287,323
13 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA     4,317,853       4,260,236
14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	 4,143,113       4,092,831
15 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA           3,407,848       3,356,637

So, again.... since you brought up scientific theory.... What part of "under similar conditions" can you point to which backs up your thesis?

 

[WorldTraveler]

Whether you manage to get paid means nothing..... I didn't use the jack of all trades line, master of none line - but you haven't told us what you really are an EXPERT at - or that you have the experience, knowledge, or data to make that claim about pricing, inventory, or network management.
.
What matters is demonstrating that you - or anyone - knows a subject.... you and others here continue to support a position that you can neither provide any evidence to support and that is actually contrary to bona fide network experts in the industry, including Boyd, who has said that WN's entrance into ATL will hardly be as imjpactful as WN's public relations department made it out to be - at least while they were trying to get approval for the merger. (now that the merger has been approved, talk of all the benefits has ended along with the promises of keeping all of the cities open that FL has served.).
.
WN is a tough competitor... DL knows that.... but the arguments that WN will do something to DL that they haven't done anywhere else ring rather hollow given that
1. DL has gained more domestic market share than any other network airline since deregulation,
2. it has outlasted every other network carrier in key NE-Florida routes,
3. and has not allowed WN or FL to gain more than a minority position in any of its hubs - including those of PMNW.
.
Despite the huge following WN has and the great scores they get in customer service ratings, their business model has NEVER succeeded at overtaking a hub carrier - and the only hub market where they have even come close to the boardings of a network carrier is DEN which is a basketcase that UA is said is not worth fighting for as long as it is a three-way slugfest. UA is content to keep the local business traffic and whatever connecting traffic it can keep - and will shift the rest of its western hub operations to ORD, IAH, LAX, and SFO.

.
When you or anyone else can come up with actual facts that show that WN can succeed in ATL where it hasn't in any other hub - except for those of AA which has had to abandon dozens of markets and their most recent hub due to high labor costs - then you might be able to convince us.

 

[eolesen]

So, in other words, scientific theory works well as an argument against everyone else's thesis, but you won't actually use to defend your own thesis?


DEN has been a two and three way slugfest for the past 30 years.

First you had UA, FL and CO... Then you had UA and CO, and CO gave up when they were heading into the second bankruptcy... That was followed by UA and WP, UA and BF (I doubt too many people even remember that one...), then you had UA and F9, bringing us to the current UA and WN show with F9 as an opening act....

There's a good case for reproducability, if you want to look at the chain of financial basket cases going up against UA.

But WN doesn't fit that description by a long shot, and I'd venture to say that should F9 falter, it will be WN taking up their share, and not UA.


Of course, the discussion on DEN, and the little snide comments about AA's history with picking dumb locations for connecting hubs is just your classic way of deflecting from the real issue --- WN is going to have 32 gates, and a 300+ flight operation in DL's hometown.

Yes, the DL brand is powerful. But relying on the history with Airtran is sort of like believing that USA Today is as accurate in their research and reporting as the WSJ is...

Just like WN doesn't fit the standard at DEN, they're not a 1:1 replacement for Airtran, and I'm not sure that you're being totally honest in your whitewashing. Or should I say widgetwashing.

Bluntly, it's not a reproducable event.

FL served a lot of places in the Central and Eastern time zones. Southwest has a true national footprint.

Airtran had regional name recognition, Southwest has international name recognition and a true national following.

The one thing that is a 1:1 replacement is the number of gates they will likely occupy.

I'm sure we could continue with the idle speculation, and continue deflecting attention by talking about AA, CASM, and quarterly reports.

But it still doesn't change the fact that you're trying to make comparisons that aren't "under similar conditions"

 

[WorldTraveler]

Eric,
glad you are using some data in your discussion. I'll go back and start w/ your previous post since you modified it after my response....
.
All your census data shows is what we all knew all along - WN didn't serve most of the top markets in the US and that they needed to have a presence in those markets. ATL is one of the largest cities in the US and the ATL aviation market is well developed for a city of its size... ATL has been a two airline hub town for decades.
.
But census data has no correlation to airline market size which is specific to the business and tourist trends specific to each city. MCO and the rest of Florida plus LAS have way more air service than their size should dictate because they are large tourist destinations.
.
Census data also does not show where the "richest" airline markets are - but that is no secret because the airline market in the US is highly mature... and there are very few large markets that have not seen one or more low cost carriers over a period of time. DEN included.
.
What is happening with the WN/FL merger is the same thing that happened in the network carrier segment - a consolidation of air services to a handful of carriers. WN realized that its strategy of serving secondary airports does not cut it if it wants to compete against the network carriers in their major markets.
.
Nothing in your data shows that WN will do any better at ATL than they have at LAX or PHL or PIT or SLC or SEA or SFO... all hub airports for network carriers in which WN has not obtained more than a 20% revenue share...
.
There is NOTHING unique about LAX from WN's perspective other than that the network carrier segment is more heavily split among the network carrriers - which is also true of most of the major coastal cities. The fact that WN boards more passengers at the satellite airports in the LAX and SFO areas than the network carriers – in some cases combined - yet still doesn’t carry the majority of the revenue in any of these cities shows that WN creates a lot of traffic but the network carriers still get the majority of the revenue.
.
FL has never been a major carrier in DEN… not sure how you think they play into what has happened there.
DEN has indeed had a number of carriers over the years but none of them have been stable or coexisted in similar markets- the fact that the airline list has changed shows that DEN is far from a stable market – and a look at historical schedules will show that major markets have changed hands among all but UA many times.
There is every evidence that DEN has been a perpetual basket case and unless WN succeeds at crushing F9, that situation will likely continue unchanged.
.
You seem persistent on arguing that FL will have a 300 flight operation at ATL but not even they have said they intend to do that – and they don’t have any city anywhere close to that large.
If you recognized that those 30 gates were created by fitting in more gates using the 717, you would realize that growing the ATL market is going to be even harder to accomplish since the wider wingspan and larger capacity 737 will require consolidating some of those gates.
Further, you also seem to miss that FL currently carries about 75% connecting traffic through ATL, a ratio of connecting to local traffic that is unsustainable and doesn’t exist in any WN or network carrier hub.
You also seem to forget that DL carries about 50% local traffic and has a domestic operation more than 3 times larger than FL’s…. DL has enormous capacity to capture whatever additional traffic that might grow in the ATL market.
IN order to turn ATL around, WN has to change the basic fundamentals of FL’s ATL operation – which are not sustainable. Remember that FL sold out because they couldn’t get any more benefit out of their network and the value of the company now was likely at its peak – remember they have been asking for WN to buy them for quite some time and their ATL presence is smaller now than it has been in more than five years.
Finally, what you can’t seem to accept is that the ATL has LONG BEEN STIMULATED by low fares.. .there is no increased amount of traffic that is going to happen just because WN shows up. There is no evidence that WN has stimulated traffic in markets that other carriers couldn’t with their own low fare strategies.
.
The reason why your arguments fall flat is because you fail to respond to these basic competitive factors which are in fact well tested in the industry and are far larger than DL/WN in ATL.
The fact that you continue to push for an outcome that no other analyst or even WN itself is predicted demonstrates that you really don’t understand or want to accept the basic principles of low fare competition – which have been well established in nearly 35 years since US deregulation.
The mere fact that DL has increased its share of the US domestic market more than any network carrier and has done so across the entire US, all the while maintaining its share in key markets – and while taking share from other network carriers – makes it all the more implausible to believe that WN will succeed in taking market share from DL.
Unlike the UA/CO merger which does little to expand UA’s presence outside of the top markets in the country, the DL/NW merger and the DL/Western 25 years ago significantly increased DL’s presence in medium and small markets across the country – and that remains unchanged.
.
There are countless markets where it is DL and WN who are the largest two carriers – RDU, IND, MCI etc etc… markets where other network carriers have not and will not ever grow to the size that DL and WN have.. and where DL DOES manage to compete quite effectively against WN.
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I’m sorry if you find the case studies about AA and its markets as cheap shots but that is exactly what has happened.
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You can use whatever data you have to show where low fare carriers have taken market share from DL – you just have to wait for it happen – because so far, it is DL that has managed to maintain a presence in low fare carrier markets better than any other network carrier.
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AA and UA may decide at some point that they cannot compete in the majority of the domestic market; UA’s domestic capacity is down more than 10% - some but only a minority of that capacity is being shifted to CO.
The implications of who will be the largest carrier in the international markets and the largest coastal business markets all depend on how successful network carriers are in the dozens of medium and small cities.
Here is a short list of medium and small size cities, many of which are closer to other carrier hubs where DL is the largest of the three largest network carriers: BNA, BOS, LAS, LIT, MCI, MSY, PHX, and RDU plus every city in Florida except for MIA.
Here is a list of cities in AA and CO’s backyards where Dl is #2, meaning they are larger than either AA or UA/CO: ABQ, SAT, TUL… note also that DL is the largest of the big three network carriers in each of US’ hubs.
Right now, the evidence is overwhelming that DL dominates the domestic market outside of the largest markets as well as in its own markets….
To show you how concentrated AA and UA’s route networks are in the largest markets to the exclusion of the dozens of cities in the middle of the country and how well DL and WN cover the WHOLE country, first are the revenue shares per carrier solely for travel WITHIN THE US.
DL 21%, UA/CO 20, WN/FL 20%, AA 13%
Now if you exclude the BOS, NYC, WAS, CHI, LA basin and SF bay airports (the largest coastal areas),
The order becomes
DL 23%, WN 21, UA/CO 18, AA 12
Note that DL and WN’s share of the Middle of the country goes up when you exclude the large coastal markets (even though NYC is a large coastal market for DL and DL is also the largest network carrier in BOS).
So, in fact, DL carries almost twice the amount of revenue from the “middle of the country” than AA and it is DL and WN who are the largest carriers in those markets (note that key Texas markets such as D/FW, Houston as well as ATL remain in the “middle” of the country count because they are not coastal cities).
Yet one more data point to show that DL is in fact quite effective in competing against WN in dozens of medium and small markets ACROSS the country… and DL maintains a strong presence in all of the large coastal markets (DL is #2 in SFO, WAS).
So, Eric, I am enjoying pulling all of this data to show that there are indeed valid and substantial reasons to show that DL competes very effectively against WN, DL has the nationwide coverage that most closely matches WN’s network – and AA and UA/CO are the #2 or #3 network carrier in far more markets than DL ), and DL still maintains its share or better in the large coastal markets.

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I’m happy that you want to discuss the subject using whatever data or facts you have but so far you haven’t shown me anything that would show me that WN will do something in ATL that they haven’t done anywhere else.
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There is nothing "equal" in comparing markets because they all have unique features...but you also cannot choose to disregard even the closest comparisons and expect to come up with a valid argument. If you choose to disregard some previous case study, you should be prepared to tell why... these are just basic tenets of logic and debate.
I have yet to see a valid argument - let alone data to support the case that you are trying to make that WN will succeed in ATL in ways that they haven't anywhere else.
Whether you are debating the subject as an expert or an interested bystander, you should be capable of presenting that kind of case.

 

[eolesen]

You, Mr. "I Know More About Networks" don't know that FL had a hub operation in DEN?... Seriously?

 

[WorldTraveler]

You, Mr. "I Know More About Networks" don't know that FL had a hub operation in DEN?... Seriously?

FL is AirTran Airways.
According to DOT data, the first time the FL code was seen in DEN was May 2003; FL has never had more than 6 departures/day on a monthly basis since it began service to DEN.
Are you sure you haven't confused something?

 

[signals]

I believe I said that figures lie, or sometimes deceive. Lets see if I can ask this question correctly...

Could WN's lower figures be due because it didn't fly to as many cities as the competitors? Could it be that a 'growing' airline's numbers will get better as it serves, say, as many key markets as the competitor?

Lets face it, if WN doesn't fly there, yet, then it goes without saying that the share belongs to whoever!

Like I keep saying...the proof is in the pudding.

 

[WorldTraveler]

I believe I said that figures lie, or sometimes deceive. Lets see if I can ask this question correctly...

Could WN's lower figures be due because it didn't fly to as many cities as the competitors? Could it be that a 'growing' airline's numbers will get better as it serves, say, as many key markets as the competitor?

Lets face it, if WN doesn't fly there, yet, then it goes without saying that the share belongs to whoever!

Like I keep saying...the proof is in the pudding.

your question is indeed valid and you did ask it ^correctly^ or at least in a way that can yield a "right" answer.
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WN's strategy has long been to stimulate traffic via new routes, discount fares, and the hype of new service and then increase the fares as the service matures. It really is a strategy that isn't much different from other airlines who start routes with introductory fares and then build the business base as the route develops.
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The difference between WN and other carriers is that WN has almost surgical accuracy in maintaining new routes and managing capacity.
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PHL is one of the best examples of a market in which WN started the market with fanfare, has now stabilized their presence, and fares have increased. The increase in average fares in PHL has been one of the highest on WN's network-= well above their system average.
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There is a concept in retailing that you compare the performance of stores that have been open for at least a year to provide some basis for the normalization that happens in the process of starting up any new business.
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In the airline industry, the concept doesn't work quite the same way but there are year over year comparisons - and each airline is expected to manage both its growth and established markets in order to produce acceptable overall results.
WN almost always performs at or above industry average - they do a very good job of managing their existing network and growing only as much as their "established" network will permit... responsible companies do not grow into new markets faster than what the established markets will allow.
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One of the reasons for using WN vs DL in SLC is because they have competed side by side in many of the same markets for years... they are both well-established. In markets like SLC-SEA and SLC-LAX, DL has managed to maintain an average fare premium AS WELL AS an overall market share premium for years... in other words, there are very few markets out of SLC where WN has EITHER a larger share of the market or a higher average fare.
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Specific to ATL, it also says that WN's greatest growth potential comes from increasing average fares and reducing the amount of local traffic comapred to FL (that would be AirTran, Eric) levels.
FL has lower costs than WN which means WN has to raise fares just to maintain the same profit level FL has AND FL's connecting ratio of 75% in ATL is way above what WN carries in any of their "hubs" or large cities - or what any other network airline carries through any of their hubs.
Further, there is NO major market from ATL where FL has a larger market share than DL or where FL has higher average fares.
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So, there are major structural factors that cannot be ignored when deciding whether WN can grow its operation in ATL.
When you couple those ATL market specific factors with DL's overall GROWTH of its domestic system (the only network carrier that has done so) and the fact that DL and WN already compete side by side in more markets than any other network carrier, it is very hard to come to a conclusion that WN will do any harm to DL.

It is also very apparent if you look at market data over years and years that DL and WN have succeeded in pulling alot of domestic market share away from other network carriers. And both continue to do so.


Have you got those airline codes straightened out?