JetBlue aka PeoplExpress

[B6Busdriver]

Your 2005 CASM numbers are misleading, as they ignore the troubling trend. Quarterly CASM rose from 6.74 cents in 1Q 2005, to 7.51 cents in 4Q.

Fuel prices are what they are. That said year over casm excluding fuel was up 7.9%.
http://www.jetblue.com/learnMore/pressDetail.asp?newsId=390

 

[flite]

Fuel prices are what they are. That said year over casm excluding fuel was up 7.9%.
http://www.jetblue.com/learnMore/pressDetail.asp?newsId=390

And once again, your annual, y/o/y numbers mislead, and do not accurate indicate the greater trend.

4Q 2005 over 4Q 2004 CASM rose 20%. (And fuel is a real cost, not something you can conveniently exclude.)

 

[BoeingBoy]

And once again, your annual, y/o/y numbers mislead, and do not accurate indicate the greater trend.

4Q05 over 4Q 2004 CASM rose 20%. (And fuel is a real cost, not something you can conveniently exclude.)

OK, then - 4Q05 CASM = 7.51 cents vs 4Q04 CASM = 6.32 cents, an 18.83% increase (not 20%). Not too bad when the cost of a gallon of fuel was up 50.3% (4Q05 vs 4Q04).

Yes, fuel is a real cost - to all airlines. Except for WN, the fuel price affects everyone about the same though.

Does any of this mean that B6 is automatically destined for either success or failure - nope. Just that they've embarked on an interesting experiment by adding a second fleet type. Time will tell if it was a good idea or not. A disappointing quarter is no more a trend than an abnormally cold winter day is indicative that glaciers are coming.

Jim

 

[flite]

A review of consecutive quarters over time do indeed indicate trends.

And the addition of small jets will always significantly increase unit costs, all other factors being equal.

IOW, the trend is not your friend.

 

[FWAAA]

B6 CASM ex-fuel was up 8% last year and in that same release (linked by B6Busdriver), B6 predicted 2006 ex-fuel CASM would rise another 4-6%. Not an encouraging trend for B6.

A very encouraging trend for its competitors, most of which will not see those kind of percentage increases in CASM this year.

 

[BoeingBoy]

Sixteen quarter's worth of ex-fuel CASM......

View attachment 4739

Jim

 

[SoftLanding]

Your 2005 CASM numbers are misleading, as they ignore the troubling trend. Quarterly CASM rose from 6.74 cents in 1Q 2005, to 7.51 cents in 4Q.

And CASM is trending even higher today, and well above breakeven. Post today's numbers, and compare them to last years, for a more accurate picture of the problem.

flite,

I agree with your statement re trend being up on the cost-side. Deliveries of E190's were 4-6 weeks behind in the the fourth quarter 2005, and that obviously drove cost up.

Even with the 1st quarter results, it's too early to predict where the cost will "settle", but if anything, cost will flatten out as the early problems with the E190's will more or less have been ironed out. (Now, jet fuel cost is another problem alltogether

Even with the higher cost of short-haul flying, yields should make up in spades for this. Operative word, should...

SoftLanding