$72.00 Oil

[flyhigh]

...for the sake of the industry, it might be better. It would probably force DL & NW out immediately. CO & AA would just file at that point. UA might have to join the court again. HP would go in as well. YX might shut down and AS would probably file. You'd see some large capacity reductions pretty quickly.

 

[jimntx]

...for the sake of the industry, it might be better. It would probably force DL & NW out immediately. CO & AA would just file at that point. UA might have to join the court again. HP would go in as well. YX might shut down and AS would probably file. You'd see some large capacity reductions pretty quickly.

I doubt it. Though elimination of (for the sake of argument) DL and NW would create a reduction in total capacity, it would also create a severe shortage in certain markets. The other airlines could not resist the siren song of unserved/underserved markets.

Do you actually think that the hole in the trans-Pacific markets left by the demise of NW or the European markets served by DL would be left unplugged by the others "for the sake of the industry?" If either of those airlines went under, AA would recall the 4000 f/as still on furlough in a heartbeat.

In addition there would be a whole bunch of "slightly used" a/c on the for sale/for lease market. No one would have any trouble adding additional capacity to capture those unserved markets.

 

[FWAAA]

AA could not buy new B-737's tomorrow even if they had the cash money.The production line is already committed to other customers for about 2 years.
Another bright decision of AA management to sell off[or trade] B-737 production slots with Quantas about 2 years ag😵ur management cannot see past the end of its nose.
[Robert Crandall was a visionary]

Your post is full of faulty premises/assumptions.

Former ModerAAtor didn't say AA would get them the next day. Sold out for nearly two years? Nonsense.

Alaska recently announced orders for 39 737-800s to be delivered between now and the end of 2008, allowing it to replace all of its MD-80s by the end of 2008:

http://www.alaskasworld.com/newsroom/asnew...0313_045635.asp

Two of the 738s have already been delivered to Alaska.

Do you really think that Boeing would shrug at an order for 10-12 dozen 738s by AA?

Do you really think that Boeing is unable to ramp up the 737 production rates if it got a huge order from one of its largest customers?

Don't you think that $100 oil might cause some distress at some other 737 customers and cause them to try to put off future deliveries? AFAIK, Southwest and RyanAir are NOT the only 737 customers. Delta has some 738s on order - and so do lots of other airlines. Perhaps $100 oil would cause some other short-term delivery slots to become available at good prices.

Oil was still very cheap in the spring of 2003 - once again, hindsight is used to declare management's decisions as stupid and shortsighted. MD-80s with cheap lease rates still looked like the better decision than expensive rates on new airplanes when AA was running low on cash.

Now, however, new fuel efficient airplanes are looking like a better deal - Alaska thinks the crossover point has already been reached.

 

[eolesen]

Your post is full of faulty premises/assumptions.

Former ModerAAtor didn't say AA would get them the next day. Sold out for nearly two years? Nonsense.

We discussed this a couple weeks ago -- Boeing's 737 production lines are operating at about 75% of what they are capable of producing. Between 1999 and 2001, they were outputting 280-300 aircraft per year. They've averaged about 200-220 per year since then, so getting another 80 aircraft per year out of the existing production lines is more than feasible.

Look at the number of A320 orders vs. B737 orders with North American carriers in the past five years. If it would secure an order for 100 more aircraft, I'd bet a box of whiteboard markers and some post-it notes that Boeing would bend over backward to help AMR secure the financing.

 

[Bear96]

Just remember to Vote Yes to more concessions like a good TWU sheep when AA comes a begging when it goes over a hundred dollars a barrel. Baaah,Baaaah,Baaaah,Baaaaah,Baaaaaah. :mf_boff:

At $80/barrel oil (or even $70 if it continues long enough), do you really think voting No to more concessions will stop them from happening?

 

[goingboeing]

Your post is full of faulty premises/assumptions.

Former ModerAAtor didn't say AA would get them the next day. Sold out for nearly two years? Nonsense.

Alaska recently announced orders for 39 737-800s to be delivered between now and the end of 2008, allowing it to replace all of its MD-80s by the end of 2008:

http://www.alaskasworld.com/newsroom/asnew...0313_045635.asp

Two of the 738s have already been delivered to Alaska.

Do you really think that Boeing would shrug at an order for 10-12 dozen 738s by AA?

Do you really think that Boeing is unable to ramp up the 737 production rates if it got a huge order from one of its largest customers?

Don't you think that $100 oil might cause some distress at some other 737 customers and cause them to try to put off future deliveries? AFAIK, Southwest and RyanAir are NOT the only 737 customers. Delta has some 738s on order - and so do lots of other airlines. Perhaps $100 oil would cause some other short-term delivery slots to become available at good prices.

Oil was still very cheap in the spring of 2003 - once again, hindsight is used to declare management's decisions as stupid and shortsighted. MD-80s with cheap lease rates still looked like the better decision than expensive rates on new airplanes when AA was running low on cash.

Now, however, new fuel efficient airplanes are looking like a better deal - Alaska thinks the crossover point has already been reached.

Read your own posting.Alaska Air gets them by the end of 2008.[That is 2 years the last time I took math!]

AA would have to get in line a take a number just like any other customer.

 

[eolesen]

Read your own posting.Alaska Air gets them by the end of 2008.[That is 2 years the last time I took math!]

AA would have to get in line a take a number just like any other customer.

Not necessarily. AA's contract with Boeing allows aircraft to be delivered with 15-24 months lead time. There's also the option of moving around delivery positions with a more financially strapped customer who is stuck with an earlier delivery schedule but can't get final financing in place. That's essentially how QF ended up with its first 10 aircraft -- AA traded positions.

 

[goingboeing]

Not necessarily. AA's contract with Boeing allows aircraft to be delivered with 15-24 months lead time. There's also the option of moving around delivery positions with a more financially strapped customer who is stuck with an earlier delivery schedule but can't get final financing in place. That's essentially how QF ended up with its first 10 aircraft -- AA traded positions.

Look at http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm

I do not see AA's name anywhere on this list for any 2006 B-737 deliveries.

I do not just make up numbers and statements from thin air but do some research into current data available .

 

[FWAAA]

Read your own posting.Alaska Air gets them by the end of 2008.[That is 2 years the last time I took math!]

AA would have to get in line a take a number just like any other customer.

Oh for Chrissakes. Did you read it? Alaska has already received two of them and will get the remainder over the next 30 months. Would AA get them all tomorrow? Nope. And neither I nor Former ModerAAtor said that.

If Arpey called Boeing and asked for a bunch of them, Boeing would likely find a way.

$100 oil (the premise introduced by Former ModerAAtor behind this whole discussion) would probably cause some other buyers to look for others. Delta has been doing that for the past few years with its 738 deliveries.

Look at http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm

I do not see AA's name anywhere on this list for any 2006 B-737 deliveries.

I do not just make up numbers and statements from thin air but do some research into current data available .

The link shows the 2006 orders. Nowhere in this thread has anyone claimed that AA has ordered any 738s this year.

Former ModerAAtor's point about the AA contract is correct; AA can get delivery positions in 15-24 months via its purchase rights. AA has not ordered any 738s this year, so you won't find any mention of AA 738 orders on that page. AA does orders for 47 738s it has deferred to 2013 and beyond. Search by Customer and you'll see them.

 

[Nor'Easta]

Well, gas hit $4.05 a gallon in Brooklyn, New York today. This is just the regular unleaded price!!

 

[FWAAA]

Well, oil closed today at over $75, so another 33% increase and we'll have that $100/bbl oil.

 

[Bear96]

Ah, remember the good old days when oil was just $72/bbl (the title of this thread)? Life was good then ...

 

[PRINCESS KIDAGAKASH]

Ah, remember the good old days when oil was just $72/bbl (the title of this thread)? Life was good then ...

GO OIL GO! GO OIL GO! GO OIL GO!

 

[jj]

GO OIL GO! GO OIL GO! GO OIL GO!

This sounds crazy but maybe we need 100 $ a barrel to settle down this crazy industry.Shake some of the loose ends if it can be done will be then.

 

[1 VF-1 2NV]

Yeah. $100 a barrel sounds great. WN will post a loss. AA, B6 and CO will file for bankruptcy. UA and US will file again. NW and DL will go out of business .