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AA headed for bankruptcy?

<_< ------- And remember people, the rules of bankruptcy have changed since the last Airline declared! The outcome my not be as favorable to Management as it used to be! And AA may only use it unless it if has no other options!------ As it should be!!

That "rules have changed" myth has been debunked at least a dozen or so times.

It's really not enough of a change to deter a company from filing. It won't allow a company to do a UAL and request years worth of extensions, but one airline has already managed to file, request extensions for exclusivity, and their management team came out intact.
 
The one thing that really scares me about this is that if we do file that we will never come out as a single carrier. I afraid at that point we maybe worth more broken up. Any thoughts on this?
 
The one thing that really scares me about this is that if we do file that we will never come out as a single carrier. I afraid at that point we maybe worth more broken up. Any thoughts on this?

No need to piece meal AA out. they file BK, have the judge agree to rape all the employees. Screw some creditors..Then ask the judge to increase executive compensation so they "don't lose all the key talent during these oh so difficult times.". Arpey puts a letter out to all employees explaining how it pains him to do this, but he needs to screw employees further because the billions employees have given up in concessions just wasn't enough.

You see, N288AA, the main purpose of bankruptcy is to screw employees, namely unions by abbrogating their contracts. Sometimes it works so well, an airline or two has filed BK twice!!!
 
No need to piece meal AA out. they file BK, have the judge agree to rape all the employees. Screw some creditors..Then ask the judge to increase executive compensation so they "don't lose all the key talent during these oh so difficult times.". Arpey puts a letter out to all employees explaining how it pains him to do this, but he needs to screw employees further because the billions employees have given up in concessions just wasn't enough.

You see, N288AA, the main purpose of bankruptcy is to screw employees, namely unions by abbrogating their contracts. Sometimes it works so well, an airline or two has filed BK twice!!!

I fully understand BK, and I also know the judge has an obligation to the creditors. To get the most money for them as possible. If there is a filing I believe we are worth alot more broken up. I firmly believe that will be the end of AA as we know it. I don't think the original US ever thought they would be bought by HP. Also from the pilots I have talked to they are of the same line of thinking. Filing BK is about alot more than you and me...we are the bottom feeders in this system!
 
I fully understand BK, and I also know the judge has an obligation to the creditors. To get the most money for them as possible. If there is a filing I believe we are worth alot more broken up. I firmly believe that will be the end of AA as we know it. I don't think the original US ever thought they would be bought by HP. Also from the pilots I have talked to they are of the same line of thinking. Filing BK is about alot more than you and me...we are the bottom feeders in this system!

No need to break AA up...If things were as dire as every tom, dick, and harry are saying, AA would have filed already. they still have nearly $5 billion in cash.
If AA files for CH. 11 or the unions give in to the threats and demands,,,,(which is what I believe will happen), AA will once again make money in spite of themselves.

Breaking AA up merely to pay off creditors in my opinion defeats the purpose of reorganizing under CH.11.
 
I don't recall that but I do remember the UAL execs proposing that they receive about 15% of the new stock upon exit from BK - that would have been worth about a billion dollars. Even right-wing Republicans said that was unbridled greed. The judge agreed and awarded the execs something like 8% of the new stock. Of course, that was value extracted not only from the employees but also from the other unsecured creditors.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/18/business/worldbusiness/18iht-ual.html
So half a billion between a handful of execs is ok?

Will AA file BK? Who knows, and really since have no control over it why get overly concerned about it? One thing we do know is that making the pilots think they may file is about all the company has left as far as leverage. In reality what does AA stand to gain? They have billions in cash, their revenues are up and they have been spending money like crazy for years.

If AA plans on filing we should take a lesson from USAir. They were told "give us concessions now and we will leave you alone later", they gave concessions, the company went BK and they came back for more, after they saw how easy that was they came back a third time. I recall back in the 80s guys quitting AA and going to USAir. Sad how they sit at the bottom of the industry now.

As far as UAL and maintenance, their costs went up after going BK and shedding their OH. You claim that those numbers must be wrong even though they were given out by UAL to their mechanics. Guess you know more from looking at their 10k filings than the guys actually running the company. When you add " Maintenance and related purchased services (13%) to Salaries and related costs (22%) it comes out to 35%, fuel was 26% (2009).

So, from maintenance, what would AA have to gain?

Spinning off overhaul may shift costs, moving it from labor expense to somewhere else but would it actually cut overall costs? That has not been UALs experience. So lowering labor costs may make Wall Street happy, which we hear from both the company and the International is important, but their approval would be short lived when overall costs go up instead of down.

Terminating the pensions probably would not save them much either, at least that's what they admitted during negotiations. It may produce paper gains because if they can remove the liability it shows up on the books as a gain, like selling an airplane. We would not lose our pensions, they would be frozen. However then we would be more focused on extracting higher wages and more OT from the company so we could fund our 401ks.

Benefits, well here is where things get interesting. Our medical benefits are not industry leading, so they won't get much there. Retiree medical, well what happened to our peers? Their free retiree medical was taken away. Ok, we did that in 1990. AA has had that concession for twenty years already. We started Prefunding back then. Our retiree medical isn't free, we paid for it ahead of time and the price is pegged to what we have in the fund when we retire. While everyone else was promised free retiree medical or was able to use their generous allotment of sick time to buy coverage ( 12 days per year vs 10, now 5 for us) we were Prefunding our retiree medical. The fund was matched dollar for dollar but all the money eventually went back to the company unless they terminated the plan, then we got both contributions. If we left the company or decided to stop contributing they kept the match and we were on our own. These funds are sitting in a BK safe trust held by JP Morgan. The only way the company can get at them is if we leave or if we agree to give it to them, which is what they are asking us to do. So if they are planning to file BK they need to get us to agree to this first. Remember when this concession was put in place our peers paid nothing, and the company agreed to refund the match if they terminated the plan in order to get the contract passed in 1992. For at least. 15 years AA had a cost advantage over their competitors, provided by us. All those who left the company prior to retirement left their match, further reducing AAs costs because it was money already spent. When someone leaves prior to retirement it's like found money for AA. None of AAs competitors had this. Now, twenty years later they want us all to just give them back the match, essentially writing them a check for $5000 and letting them dump us into what their competitors had to go into BK in order to get. Like I said before, it would be as if we had agreed to a 401k with a match as part of our compensation twenty years ago and then twenty years later the company was asking us to sign over twenty years worth of match over to them. Got to admit, they have balls.
 
No need to break AA up...If things were as dire as every tom, dick, and harry are saying, AA would have filed already. they still have nearly $5 billion in cash.
If AA files for CH. 11 or the unions give in to the threats and demands,,,,(which is what I believe will happen), AA will once again make money in spite of themselves.

Breaking AA up merely to pay off creditors in my opinion defeats the purpose of reorganizing under CH.11.

I gree the only reason to file is to rape the employees.
I also totally agree that AA will not be broken up in
bankruptcy. Merging with another carrier is another
story if AA does file. But to think that AA is going to
be broken up just because they file for chapter
11 is very naive. How cone DL, UA, CO, US,
etc, etc where not broken up? Why would AA
be any different. Stop spreading rumors that
make absolutely no sense.
 
I agree that AA most likely wont be broken up. AA more than likely would file CH11 to rape the employees as they have mentioned that their labor cost are the highest or among the highest But I have to question this..With 5 billion AA has to pay certain amount this yr, next yr to debt plus the pensions obligation and continue to lose money that 5 bill will be eaten up fast How would they survive W a CH 11 filing I also believe they would dump the pension just my opinion only reason US and HP came together was so DP could run a larger airline at a time which both companies were just short bit from liquidation
 
So half a billion between a handful of execs is ok?

No, Bob. If I thought it was OK, I would have posted that I thought it was OK. I was merely clarifying the facts of what happened at UAL as it exited Ch 11 because another poster sort of remembered what happened but did not express exactly what happened. I thought the 15% initial demand of management was outrageous and I believe that the awarded 8% was excessive.

To compare, that half billion dollars of stock the execs got at UAL was about $150 million more than the aggregate of the PUP/PSP variable compensation earned by the lucky 1000 at AMR over the past several years. And you can be certain the greedy bastard execs will ask for 15% of the new stock in AMR when it exits Ch 11 and will probably get as much as the UAL execs got. A little perspective can be helpful.

As far as UAL and maintenance, their costs went up after going BK and shedding their OH. You claim that those numbers must be wrong even though they were given out by UAL to their mechanics. Guess you know more from looking at their 10k filings than the guys actually running the company. When you add " Maintenance and related purchased services (13%) to Salaries and related costs (22%) it comes out to 35%, fuel was 26% (2009).

I'm still waiting for lengthy document that supports what you said back in May:

Bob Owens said:
UAL says that 13% of their total operating costs in 2007(when fuel was cheaper) were for outsourced maintenance services, they outsource around half their maintenance, so roughly 26% of their operating costs would be for maint. They cant be saving much. In the recent TA they agreed to bring more work back in house, the only problem is a lot of the guys are declining recall. Having found other jobs and/or relocted to cheaper areas of the country they, and their experience and expertise, are no longer available.

13% of their total expenses for outsourced maintenance? Nope. Here is my post in response:

FWAAA said:
Those numbers don't add up. In 2007, UAL spent $1.166 billion on Aircraft maintenance materials and outside repairs. That amounted to just 6.1% of its $19.106 billion of total operating expenses. No doubt someone has misinterpreted the 13% figure. Perhaps total maintenance expenses were 13% of total operating expenses? Even that would seem high, since that would mean another $1.318 billion in maintenance wages, which is unbelievable considering that total wage and salary expense in 2007 was just $4.261 billion. In 2007, UAL employed just 5,551 mechanics and related. If each one of those guys cost UAL $100k (I doubt they were that expensive), then UAL's inhouse AMTs cost UAL another $555 million.

To compare, AMR spent $1.057 billion on Aircraft maintenance materials and outside repairs in 2007, less than UAL (no kidding, given UAL's level of outsourcing). That amounted to just 4.8% of AMR's total operating expenses of $21.970 billion in 2007. AMR had probably about double the number of mechanics and related in 2007, and if each one cost AMR $100k (again, an overly generous estimate), then AMR spent about $1.1 billion on its inhouse AMTs.

Bottom line: No way did UAL spend 13% of its operating expenses on total maintenance, let alone on outsourced maintenance. Your claimed percentages don't add up. UAL spent 26% of its operating expenses on total maintenance in 2007? Not a chance in hell. 26% would equal $4.967 billion, just a few dollars less than UAL spent on fuel that year. Nope, UAL did not spend nearly $5 billion on maintenance in 2007. Thanks for playing.

http://airlineforums.com/topic/35870-twu-negotiationswhat/page__view__findpost__p__803180

So, from maintenance, what would AA have to gain?

Spinning off overhaul may shift costs, moving it from labor expense to somewhere else but would it actually cut overall costs? That has not been UALs experience. So lowering labor costs may make Wall Street happy, which we hear from both the company and the International is important, but their approval would be short lived when overall costs go up instead of down.

I don't know what Aeroman in El Salvador charges it customers, but I doubt it's as much as the Tulsa and AFW overhaul employees cost AA, including the bloated AA maintenance management in Tulsa and Fort Worth who could be let go if AA outsourced its overhaul the way UA did. When you pay your labor anywhere from $2/hr to $5/hr, it's pretty easy to undercut even AA's relatively cheap OSMs and the relatively well-paid A&Ps who work in Tulsa and Fort Worth. UAL would not have closed IND and OAK so that could increase its total maintenance costs. If UAL gave its employees something that showed that outsourcing maintenance was MORE expensive, then UAL lied to its employees. My guess is that somewhere along the line, someone is confused or is misinterpreting the numbers. I'm not accusing you of making it up or lying - but I believe you are mistaken. UAL did not spend 13% of its total expenses in 2007 or any other year solely for outsourced maintenance.

Like I posted the other day (with my email address): If you have a chance, I'd like to read the document that has convinced you that UA spent 13% of its total expenses on outsourced maintenance in 2007 (or any other year). Here's the address again:

fwaaa10 at yahoo dot com
 
The execs will get theirs. They always do.

Bottom line for us "rank and file" is that we are worse off in a Chapter 11 filing.

Another wage cut like the last one and I won't be retiring until I'm 78. Enough already, let's make a deal and move on.
 
The execs will get theirs. They always do.

Bottom line for us "rank and file" is that we are worse off in a Chapter 11 filing.

Another wage cut like the last one and I won't be retiring until I'm 78. Enough already, let's make a deal and move on.
CUT AND RUN>>>NEVER,We gave them a free BK already NO MORE !!!!!!
 
The execs will get theirs. They always do.

Bottom line for us "rank and file" is that we are worse off in a Chapter 11 filing.

Another wage cut like the last one and I won't be retiring until I'm 78. Enough already, let's make a deal and move on.
So after refusing to give an inch and dragging their feet for four years, we are supposed to reward them by handing away prefunding? If we do that they will file BK and get back whatever measley pay increase we get and then some. They want the prefunding because it can't be touched in BK. I say don't let them have it! We gave away everything in 2003 to keep prefunding and the pension. Do not give in now!!!
 
That's what happens to companies with the highest labor and pension obligations.

Face it, the airline business is dead because of deregulation.

Those airlines making a profit now, will only succumb to future internet pressures to lower and lower fare pricing.

It's a race to the bottom, and the only thing the employees can do is stay and suffer more cuts or leave the industry.
 
So after refusing to give an inch and dragging their feet for four years, we are supposed to reward them by handing away prefunding? If we do that they will file BK and get back whatever measley pay increase we get and then some. They want the prefunding because it can't be touched in BK. I say don't let them have it! We gave away everything in 2003 to keep prefunding and the pension. Do not give in now!!!
It's sad that the TWU has led us to this point . You guys had a chance to vote their worthless a$$$$$$$'s out and they did not do it for what ever reason don't know, so I say keep what you got for now, let the pilot's take us to BK ,don't give these SOB's a gosh darn thing. NOT NOW NOT EVER
 

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