AA's Seasonal Widebody Reduction compared to DL, UA

[eolesen]

Since it was brought up in another thread without a chance to fully illustrate, here's a 12 month snapshot of AA/US's widebody schedule (daily departures) comparing to DL and UA.

It's pretty clear that it is a somewhat universal practice for the North American airlines to draw down their widebody capacity in the winter for doing overhauls and mod lines.
Some career forum participants have called that hogwash, but the numbers simply don't lie to fit the spin job of the day....

We know it will come up eventually, here's DL's snapshot:

And for the sake of fairness, here's UA's... Slightly smaller maintenance window than the other two, but also slightly lower widebody departure counts than the other two airlines:

All of this is from published data, and normalised to include UA/CO and AA/US operated departures, whilst excluding departures for all three airlines which are operated by a codeshare or JV partner.

-------------------------

It's pretty obvious that the overhaul and mod lines pick up in the winter months.

 

[AirLUVer]

Per Worldtraveler  

I didn't bash AA anywhere in this thread.

I simply noted that they have decreased their capacity by 7% and indeed had more widebody flights in the market in the last two years.

They made a marketing driven decision to reduce capacity in a market which they dominate.
 

 
He very erroneously attributed that AA is ONLY taking out capacity on the MIA/LAX route.  Even after he has been given several general and specific examples of why.
 
As someone that was in routing, and still knows some of what is going on in MTX planning right now, and explained to him in the earlier thread which is now closed AFTER he got the last word.  I explained to him some of the below facts.
 
DFW 772 BC was moved from DFW to MIA.  This is a 36 hour maintenance check that eliminates the capability to support the 2 daily 777's that normally run MIA/LAX.  
 
Also in my recollection MIA/LAX has been scheduled with no more than 2 777's per day on MIA/LAX.  There was at one point 2 MIA/LAX 777's and one DFW/LAX 777 recently but the DFW flight was changed this last spring.
 
On top of the regular scheduled BC which has contributed to the drop of a 777 from MIA/LAX.  AA has approximately 3 airplanes in for HVM in HKG.  Which is taking significantly longer due to the fact that AA is having to wait for the new BIZ class seats.  Which are running late due to the manufacturer's strike earlier this year.  This has also contributed to the delay of the 787 delivery which was due last week.
 
They have also pulled some of the flying out of MIA with the swap to 773 on all MIAGRU flights.  So 772's that normally would be sitting in MIA to work those flights are now in other markets as well.
 
There was also an added IC (sometimes called Interior Check or International Check) to the MIA mtx bases responsibilities.  This check also takes the majority of the day to complete.
 
Also the loss of service on 772's to GRU drives another AC to be done in another location, more than likely MIA is now doing a daily turn AC.
 
All of these things limit the number of 772's available to operate two daily 772's between MIA and LAX.
 
The only marketing part of this decision was which route to impact, and since most of ANY revenue loss can be recovered with the downgraded replacement flight. And there are limited DOM markets in which a downgrade could be supported on the 777 fleet.

 

[eolesen]

Thanks for reminding me to include the 787 in AA's summer capacity.

Assuming that someone trying to get the last word doesn't run and get this thread locked, I'll rerun and post the adjusted number later this week.

It's not even worth trying to point out where the reductions took place. The fact is that every airline pulls down seasonally, and only a fool would pull capacity in a highly competitive market first. Pointing to a single market like MIALAX was simply cherry picking to fit a failed narrative.

 

[jcw]

This is going to be a tough one for someone to handle

Great job pulling this together - nothing like a little facts to support reality

We should run a poll on how long it will take someone to get this thread locked

 

[commavia]

Since it was brought up in another thread without a chance to fully illustrate, here's a 12 month snapshot of AA/US's widebody schedule (daily departures) comparing to DL and UA.

It's pretty obvious that the overhaul and mod lines pick up in the winter months.

 

As someone that was in routing, and still knows some of what is going on in MTX planning right now, and explained to him in the earlier thread which is now closed AFTER he got the last word.  I explained to him some of the below facts.

 
What both of you clearly fail to grasp is that all of that doesn't matter - AA is temporarily decreased the number of widebodies on MIA-LAX, and this is clearly emblematic of the company's larger struggle to remain solvent while fighting a multi-front war against Delta's single daily 737 in this market, to say nothing of the looming onslaught of a few daily 717s DAL-ATL (maybe) - in "N. Texas," where Delta will soon "win" and AA will struggle to "survive" - and of course who could forget the 757 PHL-LHR.  And let's not get started on all the havoc being caused to AA's Pacific JV with JAL with all the flights Delta is cutting from NRT - another Waterloo for AA, obviously.
 
Let's keep some perspective, people - AA is clearly doomed, winter MX ramp-up or not.

 

[MetalMover]

You people have it all wrong..It is just an illusion that DL is doing these things. When AA does it, it is a major misstep. but when DL does it, it is a stroke of genius. 

 

[robbedagain]

with those "facts" that some folks here presented  a certain DL preacher cheerleader may very well be on the highest dose of meds    or he is trying to figure a way to combat those facts with his version of bs crap... 

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

... ... ...- nothing like a little facts to support reality
 

 
..........  and ruin a gooDL narrative!

 

[Overspeed]

How dare anyone use facts on this forum!

 

[Overspeed]

I heard the 787 flying is not set yet. We were told in class that it was going to fly between ORD and DFW for a few months for shakedown for everyone.

 

[WorldTraveler]

And the sad part is that some don't realize that the issue never was about whether widebody flights overall are reduced.
the issue is in acknowledging the markets where it is done and that some routes get more capacity cuts than others.
AA's decision as to where to cut capacity is the issue

 

[jcw]

Oh my - here we go again - someone can't remember all their posts and how they are fixated on one route and one aircraft change
 
Must be a tough day in the DL shrine

 

[LD3]

He must lay awake at night obesssing about this crap.....

 

[eolesen]

And the sad part is that some don't realize that the issue never was about whether widebody flights overall are reduced.
the issue is in acknowledging the markets where it is done and that some routes get more capacity cuts than others.
AA's decision as to where to cut capacity is the issue

What's sadder is that you can't realize that nobody except for you and Josh seem to thing that a temporary upgauge/downgauge is an issue worth discussing.


Maybe you can point out for us where DL did a better job at cutting their seasonal widebody capacity?

 

[WorldTraveler]

You can't just admit that AA chose to reduce capacity in a market where they are the dominant carrier even while leaving capacity alone or added to it?