i'm not sure why you have coupled yourself to the higher oil = lost chance, assoc.'s fault, weaasles' fault.
pilots are coming up and they don't seem to believe (the ones i have spoken to) a card the company will pull out at negotiation time. the flip-side of the same card is that when oil is at $50/bbl, the company says we need to spend $$ on cap ex and have no money for you.
bottom line, the company doesn't want to share it's profits with us. profits at $5 billion a year or profits at $2 billion a year.
when the shale/frackers start rolling with improved infrastructure to increase flows to refineries, oil will go back down to where?