AMR hits bottom? Part 2
- Thread starter Barfbag
- Start date
NewHampshire Black Bears
Veteran
You know what "bag".
Strange as this may seem, I'm feeling that ......this time around...that the SHET IS going to hit the "blades"...one way or another.
Meaning it will bring on BK,if it's to be...(and I don't think that.....THAT will be the first thing to happen)
If NO BK, then the "last leg" of consolidations will Finally happen,.....like in...CO is forced to take over UAL,...or LCC finally goes "belly up", while AA "cherry picks" over the carcass.
BOTTOM LINE,.......(this time) Something WILL happen !!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopeful
Veteran
- Dec 21, 2002
- 5,998
- 347
I couldn't agree more, NH/BB's....What I think will happen is the BA/AA hookup getting approved. Given the economic conditions of both countries, this is the ultimate consolidation.
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poplockanddropit
Guest
Or as the infamous Doug Parker stated recently, the ones that go into BK propably won't come out.. The 2 carriers hot on the watch list now are US and AMR.. I would suspect that if either go in, they would quickly be bought, esepecially AMR.. (Deleted by moderator: flamebait.) It seems like everyone at AMR has this false hope that they are merging with BA, but seriously, that is not going to happen with this administration. If that were the case you would see UAL/LH/CAL and DAL/AF/KLM ... Now with DAL/NWA and CAL/UAL/US - AMR is kinda left out on the alliance front.. OneWorld is relatively weak compared to SkyTeam and the Star, and I just read an article that said if Iberia pulled out it would be crippling to OneWorld.. I found that sort of .... interesting.. One thing for sure, I have a strong feeling this is going to get VERY INTERESTING and afterwards we are going to have alot fewer airlines, so buckle those belts people - its going to get bumpy...
The possibility of an AA chapter 11 and/or liquidation is not out of the question. Looking at the fundamentals of the business, however, AA is in better shape than US. AA claims it has over 3 billion in assets that it can use to raise cash to ride out the storm as where US has said that almost all of its assets are already pledged as collateral. Additionally, AA is much larger, has a far superior route network, and has a far superior percentage of the premium passenger market. Now having said all that, if AA and the unions are unable to craft mutually acceptable agreements, a strike by any union will promptly relegate AA to the dustbin of aviation history.
For the umpteenth time...please take that extra nanosecond required to look down to the ADD REPLY button at the bottom of each page. Use it instead of the reply button at the bottom of a post when replying to the last post in the thread. There is no need and it wastes bandwidth and disk space to copy/quote an entire post in a reply directly below the quoted post.
eolesen
Veteran
- Jul 23, 2003
- 15,907
- 9,359
Sure AMR hit a 52 week low. So did some 80% of the stock market.... You guys keep focusing on AMR without looking at the rest of the markets... That's like declaring the economy and unemployment are exactly the same nationally and globally as they are in Sandy, UT...
Uh, right. Whose watch list is that? Wishful-thinking employees at other airlines, or analysts who follow airlines as their day job?...
DL and UA are in my sideline opinion far worse shape than either of the two you mention. AMR has credibility that UA doesn't, and DL is in a fat world of hurt after swallowing NW whole....
If IB pulled out, I'd see it as a vast improvement... Iberia brings a little bit of former empire credibility in Latin America, but with LAN and soon Mexicana, their influence there is waning.
Star and Sky Team are all about quantity, not quality. They rack up carriers with lots of duplication, and wind up diluting each other's services. Oneworld seems to have avoided that, with the exception of US/UK and that's only because of the outdated carve-out from the Bermuda II days...
Uh, right. Whose watch list is that? Wishful-thinking employees at other airlines, or analysts who follow airlines as their day job?...
DL and UA are in my sideline opinion far worse shape than either of the two you mention. AMR has credibility that UA doesn't, and DL is in a fat world of hurt after swallowing NW whole....
If IB pulled out, I'd see it as a vast improvement... Iberia brings a little bit of former empire credibility in Latin America, but with LAN and soon Mexicana, their influence there is waning.
Star and Sky Team are all about quantity, not quality. They rack up carriers with lots of duplication, and wind up diluting each other's services. Oneworld seems to have avoided that, with the exception of US/UK and that's only because of the outdated carve-out from the Bermuda II days...
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poplockanddropit
Guest
If IB pulled out, I'd see it as a vast improvement... Iberia brings a little bit of former empire credibility in Latin America, but with LAN and soon Mexicana, their influence there is waning.
Star and Sky Team are all about quantity, not quality. They rack up carriers with lots of duplication, and wind up diluting each other's services. Oneworld seems to have avoided that, with the exception of US/UK and that's only because of the outdated carve-out from the Bermuda II days...
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Actually, it's not about quantity. its about convenience.. For example - Lets say you are in Bangkok and you want to go to Singapore, as a OneWorld member your options aren't great without back tracking, As a member of Star - you can jump on THAI or SINGAPORE Airlines. The point is, you need airlines from each region to connect passengers more efficiently instead of backtrack to get where you are going. Which you do alot in Oneworld due to the fact that the major players are AA BA QUANTAS and JAL. That was the major point in the in-efficiency of OneWorld, Arpey was basically laughed at when he tried the speech of "we focus more on quality".... When many of the most highly rated airlines are in STAR and SKYTEAM.. Now the same can be said about the Star in parts of South America, they are definitely lacking.
Star and Sky Team are all about quantity, not quality. They rack up carriers with lots of duplication, and wind up diluting each other's services. Oneworld seems to have avoided that, with the exception of US/UK and that's only because of the outdated carve-out from the Bermuda II days...
[/quote]
Actually, it's not about quantity. its about convenience.. For example - Lets say you are in Bangkok and you want to go to Singapore, as a OneWorld member your options aren't great without back tracking, As a member of Star - you can jump on THAI or SINGAPORE Airlines. The point is, you need airlines from each region to connect passengers more efficiently instead of backtrack to get where you are going. Which you do alot in Oneworld due to the fact that the major players are AA BA QUANTAS and JAL. That was the major point in the in-efficiency of OneWorld, Arpey was basically laughed at when he tried the speech of "we focus more on quality".... When many of the most highly rated airlines are in STAR and SKYTEAM.. Now the same can be said about the Star in parts of South America, they are definitely lacking.
You're ignoring Cathay Pacific, which flies SIN-BKK-SIN. I've flown it several times.
Thank you, come again.
FA Mikey
Veteran
Of the last 2 posts, which is well written with valid thoughts and a basis in reality, and which one is a sad attempt grabbing at straws? Eric you win.
jimntx
Veteran
I know. I know. That Bangkok-Singapore hole in our route system comes up ALL the time (despite it's non-existence due to Cathay Pacific). It's worse than the STL-ICT problem. There's another option should Cathay Pacific be full. Fly Thai or Singapore, but charge your ticket to your AA Citi card. Don't have to backtrack and you still get AAdvantage miles.
upsilon
Senior
- Aug 20, 2002
- 372
- 2
I read somewhere in the last few days (possibly NYT or WSJ) that some members of Congress were calling for the existing alliances (*A and ST) to be broken up by revoking the ATI needed for the U.S. airlines to participate. This was in response to the AA/BA request for ATI. The usual reasons were cited: loss of jobs, etc.
I have my doubts that the BA/AA deal is a gimmie, just because of the other two alliances exist and LHR is “openâ€; but I hope to be wrong. However if AA/BA is denied, I would bet the U.S. airlines in *A and ST would also lose ATI.
I have my doubts that the BA/AA deal is a gimmie, just because of the other two alliances exist and LHR is “openâ€; but I hope to be wrong. However if AA/BA is denied, I would bet the U.S. airlines in *A and ST would also lose ATI.
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poplockanddropit
Guest
No actually i'm not... I said you have more OPTIONS with *Alliance, such as Thai or Singapore, more frequencies and better schedules, than a non national carrier... You have very selective reading, as most on this thread. So THANK YOU - COME AGAIN... READ - It does wonders.
