Since we are all just playing airline analyst lets take stock (no pun intended) of where we are. This past week the period of exclusivity was extended to Jan 18, 2014. The company attorneys requested documents which would explain the rationale behind the previously approved mergers. The government has been reluctant to comply. Some of the feedback from the attendees to D.C. last week, second hand I'll admit, is that Delta's fingerprints are all over this effort to kill or cripple this merger.
Add to the above the more proximate trial date granted as well as the choice of holding the trial during the week of a major holiday and my intuition tells me the judge is pre-disposed to seeing a settlement. Meanwhile the actual stock has recovered what it lost when the DOJ made their opening salvo, indicating investors remain bullish on the merger. Also in the last month, insiders have been buying the stock.
Finally, step back from all this anecdotal 'errata' and consider the old adage of 'follow the money'. Consider what stakeholders such as Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, UCC and the AA labor groups stand to lose if the merger fails. Money walks.
Out of an abundance of caution, I am not prepared to say this merger is dead.
'84
