BOS-BUF

[john john]

This is the first route where US has really taken B6 "head on." When you think about it, there are very few routes where US and B6 compete on (only LGA-FLL, BOS-RIC, BOS-NAS, BOS-PIT come to mind... did I miss any others?)

The fact that BUF-BOS must be a profitable route for US shows that they arent afraid to take on B6. I think BOS-PIT will also see an increased US presence, but not the other routes.

RJ's

 

[MarkMyWords]

This is the first route where US has really taken B6 "head on." When you think about it, there are very few routes where US and B6 compete on (only LGA-FLL, BOS-RIC, BOS-NAS, BOS-PIT come to mind... did I miss any others?)

The fact that BUF-BOS must be a profitable route for US shows that they arent afraid to take on B6. I think BOS-PIT will also see an increased US presence, but not the other routes.

What about routes like LGA-BUF, LGA-ROC, LGA-SYR? Mainline used to have these routes with full 734's (at least to ROC and BUF). Now we offer a multitude of express flights. I suspect that routes like CMH-LGA, IND-LGA, SDF-LGA. RDU-LGA and DAY-LGA to come under attack as B6 receives additional deliveries of the E190.

 

[Flying Titan]

MMW,
You are correct. The untapped traffic is there on all of these routes to support larger aircraft and more frequent flights. But US seems to be happy with 50 seat RJs and Dash-8s at some very high fares, often well over a dollar a mile. That strategy works well for producing revenue with only a commitment from the cheapest available equipment, but it also invites carriers like B6 and FL to come in and clean up on all of the price sensitive traffic resents being gouged or that's chosen to drive instead of fly.

 

[ALCARLOS]

I wonder if US Airways has any aircraft to deploy? Could this be the reason we only see the Express planes?

 

[BoeingBoy]

What about routes like LGA-BUF, LGA-ROC, LGA-SYR? Mainline used to have these routes with full 734's (at least to ROC and BUF). Now we offer a multitude of express flights. I suspect that routes like CMH-LGA, IND-LGA, SDF-LGA. RDU-LGA and DAY-LGA to come under attack as B6 receives additional deliveries of the E190.

For the month of September 2005:

BUF to LGA passengers - US 1431, PDT 2063, CHQ 3737, PSA 607, RP 1548 for a total of 9386. BUF to JFK passengers - B6 26586.

ROC to LGA passengers - PDT 2290, CHQ 913, PSA 343, Colgan 328 for a total of 3874, ROC to JFK passengers - B6 18028.

SYR to LGA passengers - PDT 1927, CHQ 1211, Colgan 1155 for a total of 4293. SYR to JFK - B6 10793.

CMH to LGA/JFK - 12687 passengers @ $201 average fare (2Q05 fare)

IND to LGA/JFK - 11469 passengers @ $174 average fare (2Q05 fare)

RDU to LGA/JFK - 23009 passengers @ $168 average fare (2Q05 fare)

SDF & DAY to LGA/JFK had fewer passengers than any of these.

Jim

 

[Flying Titan]

BB -
Looks like US has handed the upstate-NYC markets over to B6. US used to thoroughly dominate these markets. Will history repeat itself in the upstate NY to Boston markets? Are 50-seat RJ's enough to compete with mainline service from FL and B6?

 

[vc10]

Be interesting to see what the response is to AirTran's entrance into ROC-BOS. Interesting timing on that one by AirTran -- almost tag-teaming with JetBlue (no, I don't think this is a conspiracy).

One thing's for sure, there's more competition on Boston to western NY than there has been in almost 20 years.

 

[jimcfs]

Be interesting to see what the response is to AirTran's entrance into ROC-BOS. Interesting timing on that one by AirTran -- almost tag-teaming with JetBlue (no, I don't think this is a conspiracy).

One thing's for sure, there's more competition on Boston to western NY than there has been in almost 20 years.

I don't have any numbers, but I have heard AirTran is pleased with its CAK-BOS and CAK-LGA runs.

I still can't believe US has turned the western NY markets over to JB, SW and AT... these used to be the bread-and-butter routes, right?

 

[Heinrich]

I don't have any numbers, but I have heard AirTran is pleased with its CAK-BOS and CAK-LGA runs.

I still can't believe US has turned the western NY markets over to JB, SW and AT... these used to be the bread-and-butter routes, right?

ORF was handed to DELTA a few years ago, that was a bread and butter market.

Quick, now, NAME some markets that any airline has handed to USAir

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[BoeingBoy]

I don't have any numbers, but I have heard AirTran is pleased with its CAK-BOS and CAK-LGA runs.

In Sept05:

CAK-BOS: 4327 passengers (avg 144.23/day)
BOS-CAK: 4074 passengers (avg 135.80/day)

CAK-LGA: 6474 passengers (avg 215.80/day)
LGA-CAK: 5935 passengers (avg 197.83/day)

Jim

 

[SoftLanding]

In Sept05:

CAK-BOS: 4327 passengers (avg 144.23/day)
BOS-CAK: 4074 passengers (avg 135.80/day)

CAK-LGA: 6474 passengers (avg 215.80/day)
LGA-CAK: 5935 passengers (avg 197.83/day)

Jim

Jim,

some interesting passengers and fare stats you are serving, thanks.

AirTran, JetBlue and Southwest are looking for higher yields...

It looks to me like these airlines are thinkin' Doug Parker has enough with the merger, won't notice some new competition on a few routes...

Anyone want to bet they are wrong? We better hope so!!!

 

[BoeingBoy]

Well, if you want some possibilities (and some of these obviously require slot considerations).....

PIT-DCA, 2Q05 avg yield $1.68, Sept05 about 6,000 pax each way (not counting the 7000+ IAir carried each way to/from IAD).

EWR-DCA, 2Q05 avg yield $1.22, Sept05 about 10,000 pas each way (not counting the 6500+ IAir carried each way to/from IAD).

BOS-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $1.17, Sept05 about 27,000 pax each way (didn't B6 start this fairly recently?)

RIC-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $1.09, Sept05 about 4,000 pax each way (didn't B6 or FL announce or start service RIC-NYC recently?)

PIT-LGA, oh yeah - the subject of a whole tread around here somewhere...2Q05 avg yield $0.92.

ORF-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.91, Sept05 about 5,000 pax each way.

CLT-DCA, 2Q05 avg yield $0.85, Sept05 about 19,000 pax each way (not counting the 7,500 pax each way that IAir and the 9,000 that US carried to/from IAD).

ROC-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.82, Sept05 about 5500 pax each way.

PIT-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.81, Sept05 about 11,500 pax each way.

SYR-LGA, oh yeah, B6 again to JFK carrying almost 11,000 pax in Sept.

CMH-PHL, 2Q05 avg yield $0.68, Sept05 about 6,700 pax each way.

BUF-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.66, Sept05 about 10,000 pax each way.

PWM-LGA, 2Q05 avg yield $0.61, Sept05 about 6.700 pax each way.

RIC-LGA, 2Q05 avg yield $0.59, Sept05 about 8,000 pax each way.

CMH-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.57, Sept05 about 8,200 pax each way.

ROC-LGA, another B6 route to JFK.

RDU-EWR, 2Q05 avg yield $0.50, Sept05 about 13,000 pax each way.

These are the ones that had a 2Q05 average yield of at least 50 cents and had Sept passenger numbers of over 150/day average. There are a few more that had the avg yield and passenger numbers in 2Q05 but the passenger numbers dropped in Sept05 - that could just be seasonal.

Jim

 

[vc10]

Another indication that US Airways' airfares to upstate NY are deep into the diminishing returns area: Cornell University (which is by far the dominant business in Ithaca NY) is now running daily luxury buses from Ithaca to New York, which apparently started last May.

http://c2cbus.com/

(Cornell has a medical center campus in NYC)

Bus is $99 one way, $149 roundtrip. Takes 4.5 hours but includes on-board wifi, water, soda, etc, so you can be productive.

US Airways walkup fare is over $300 oneway. It's priced itself out of this market.

This is kind of ridiculous.

 

[700UW]

Jim,

Are you getting all this info from the BTS?

 

[BoeingBoy]

Yes. a combination of the Air Fare report (2Q05 is the latest out) and T100 Market Data (where the International data lags the domestic by 3 months, hence Sept05).

It'd be nice to work with the databases that contain ticket prices paid and not have to wait for the Air Fare report, but they're just too big. The Excel limit of about 65,000 rows cuts off over half the data.

Jim