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Article Published: Sunday, June 06, 2004
United expects decision soon
Eyes $1.6 billion loan guarantee
By Greg Griffin
Denver Post Staff Writer
Three men soon will make a decision that could determine the fate of United Airlines and have profound effects on an industry in chronic turmoil.
The Air Transportation Stabilization Board - formed to assist airlines after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks - is thought to be in the final stages of evaluating United's application for a $1.6 billion loan guarantee.
With the guarantee, United officials say, the Chicago-based company will be able to secure $2 billion in bank loans. That will allow it to emerge from bankruptcy protection later this year.
For Denver, United's No. 2 hub, that would mean preservation of 6,100 jobs and continuation of air service at a level not found in most cities this size.
Without government backing, the future of the world's second-largest carrier and the communities it serves is anyone's guess.
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"Fifteen years ago it was inconceivable that someone like Pan Am or Eastern could fail, but does anyone remember them now?" said Robert Mann, president of Port Washington, N.Y.-based airline consulting firm R.W. Mann & Co. "It will be interesting to see how this shakes out."
United chief financial officer Jake Brace told The Denver Post last week that the board is in the "evaluative and deliberative process."
The airline recently provided the board with updated information on how it's being affected by escalating fuel prices and growing low-cost competition, Brace said. No more formal meetings are scheduled.
United has said it will spend $750 million more on fuel this year than it anticipated because of near-record oil prices. Also casting doubts on its chances of recovery are fresh concerns about the solvency of Delta Air Lines and of US Airways, which exited bankruptcy last year with a $900 million guarantee.
Brace said United has confidence in its business plan and its ability to repay its loans.
"They did a very thorough and competent due-diligence process," Brace said. But because United officials did not meet directly with the board, only with its staff, he said, "it's very difficult to get any feedback as to what are their concerns."
"We think we have put together a good business plan that we've validated with the capital markets," Brace said.
United asked the bankruptcy court on Friday to extend by three months - until Sept. 30 - its deadline for filing a restructuring plan. One reason is that the company is uncertain when the ATSB will make its decision.
The airline also must resolve several issues, including a dispute with unions over retiree benefit payments and ongoing negotiations with a group of debtholders.
On the ATSB are Edward Gramlich, a governor of the Federal Reserve System; Brian Roseboro, an undersecretary with the Department of Treasury; and Jeffrey Shane, an undersecretary with the Department of Transportation.
David Walker, comptroller general of the U.S. General Accounting Office, is a non-voting member.
A spokeswoman for the board didn't return a call Friday.
Michael Kestenbaum, executive director of the board, told lawmakers Thursday the federal government owns stakes equivalent to $100 million in six airlines that received loan guarantees totaling $1.8 billion.
The ATSB is authorized to grant up to $10 billion in loan guarantees.
"Currently, all five of the outstanding ATSB guaranteed loans are performing," he said. But at the same time, he acknowledged that "there is always a risk of eventual defaults (on loans) given the challenges the industry continues to face."
The importance of the board's decision goes well beyond United. If the airline is allowed to liquidate or dramatically slash its operations - possible scenarios should the loan guarantee be rejected - the industry's seating capacity would be significantly reduced.
Airline officials say there still are too many seats on the market. That's inhibiting their ability to raise fares to deal with high fuel and security costs, slowly rebounding demand and fierce low-cost competition.
"Until you get rid of some of the extra capacity - some estimates put it as high as 25 percent - there's never going to be pricing power in the industry," AirTran Airways chairman and chief executive Joe Leonard said Thursday during congressional testimony on financial troubles facing airlines.
"Anything the government does to subsidize inefficiency and discourage competition will fail, both for the airlines and for the taxpayers," he said.
United's rivals are pressing the Bush administration to reject the guarantee. They argue Sept. 11 isn't a major factor anymore and that United is to blame for many of its troubles.
Yet few expect the ATSB to withhold government assistance to United. Because it's an election year, politics are likely to play a role in the decision, probably to United's advantage since jobs are at stake.
"United is probably going to get it," said Mike Boyd, an aviation consultant based in Evergreen. "What choice does this group have? If there's even half a chance United is going to go out of business, they're going to give it to them."
Boyd said he believes United could find exit financing without the loan guarantee.
United officials say, however, there is no more money available from private sources. J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup are willing to loan United $2 billion to finance its emergence, if it gets the loan guarantee for $1.6 billion. That would leave only $400 million unprotected should the company default.
The board rejected United's last application in December 2002, pushing the carrier into bankruptcy. At the time, United was criticized for overestimating future revenues and failing to cut costs.
Since then, United has slashed more than $5 billion in annual costs. It also has launched a discount carrier to confront low-cost competitors.