I'll give it about a month to see which side is victorious. It can go either way, 50/50. NW has the oldest fleet among the 6 legacies. And older aircraft break a lot more and require a LOT of maintanence. This coupled with the fact that the scabs are still in the "learning curve" works in AMFAs favor. As more and more cycles are put on the planes, more tire, brake, and hydraulic changes will need to be done along with A checks, B checks etc. Of course there are the MELs and odd last minute things like leaking lavs, galleys,etc. What goes in favor of NW is what happened at EAL. At EAL EVERYTHING was done in house, there was nothing farmed out. Yet, EAL was able to staff it's heavy and line maintenance in a half-assed manner. But they were still able to fly for about 2 years after the strike. But their maintanence wasn't pretty because they were cannibalizing aircraft for parts. I can clearly remember about 10 L-10-11s in MIA with no engines on them. Also, they cannibalized some of the 757s for the avionics. Nw has been farming work out for the past couple of years so they basically have to just worry about line mx. If AMFA wins, this would be a huge victory for them and their "strength in skill" dogma. If NW wins, it would be a victory for the "strength in numbers" line of thought. But whatever happens here, in my opnion, will have a profound effect on everyone.