DL starting LAX-SAT

[WorldTraveler]

DL is starting LAX-SAT on E175s (perhaps freed up with the LGA-BOS switch to 717s?).

SAT will be the 3rd Texas city served by DL from LAX.

AUS-LAX is gaining an additional flight while DFW-LAX starts in a couple months.

DL's own LHR flight from LAX also starts soon.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

I assume DL is targeting UA with this route addition?

 

[WorldTraveler]

hard to know other than that DL wants a part in the LAX-Texas market and DL sees it as strategically necessary to grow its presence from Texas to the west and from LAX.

Adding 3 destinations in Texas from LAX in one year as well as LHR increases DL's position significantly in LAX.

Further, DL has yet to publish its final schedules for next year but LAX-AUS was initially loaded with a 717 but was downgraded to E175s and the 717 is not being used on the west coast yet. Given DL's buildup at both LAX and SEA, the chances are very high that DL will add another narrowbody fleet type to either LAX or SEA pilot bases to allow some of the large RJ flying to be upgraded to mainline.

The 717 is about 50% larger in terms of seats than an Ejet but takes up very little more ramp space which makes it a good aircraft to use in gate constrained airports which is the situation at both LAX and SEA.

As I have noted before, as DL's growth in NYC slows down and the network there is fine-tuned instead of focusing significant growth, DL's focus will shift to the western US.

 

[robbedagain]

dl used to have dfw/lax before  back in the 80s n 90s    they used to use the tristar aircraft...   what will they use on the run this time

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, DFW-LAX and even before that DAL-LAX, was one of DL's earliest routes to the western US.

DL is restarting DFW-LAX, not as part of the hub DL used to have at DFW but as largely point to point service using 4X Ejets.

DL's capacity is less than what Virgin America is abandoning with its move to DAL.

 

[Kev3188]

I assume DL is targeting UA with this route addition?

That's my thought, too. Someone'll have to blink first on this route; my guess is it's them...

 

[jimntx]

United has 3 non-stops per day.  At current ticket prices, DL should have no trouble competing.  Per Travelocity, the cheapest non-stop r-t fare on UA is almost $800.  Of course, we haven't yet seen the effect the DL announcement will have on prices.

 

[FWAAA]

Southwest is the largest carrier between SAT and the LAX metro area (all five airports) with 44% of the local share.    According to the DOT data for the first quarter, the local market is miniscule  at 659 total daily passengers, or 330 each way.   WN's fare was $263 each way.   The low-fare carrier was US Airways, with 12% of the O&D at $261 each way.   The average fare in the market was $270 each way.    DL is simply going after some connecting traffic, not unexpected.    
 
It's possible that DL is actually going after WN.    Of course, the DL large RJs are more comfortable than the WN 737s, at least for the DL elites, who will be in First Class or EC.   Those seats will beat the hell out of any seat on a WN 737 these days with (D)Evolve seats.   The US Airways Express CRJ900s aren't quite as comfortable, as CRJs just plane suck compared to E170/E175s.  E175s hold full-size carryons in their overhead bins, the windows are engineered in the proper plane so people can look out and there aren't any crappy seats in the back next to the engines on an E175.   Advantage DL.    

 

[WorldTraveler]

and perhaps this is another market where US cannot undercut a market where a legacy carrier flies nonstop any longer. US obviously connected that traffic and was able to do it because the nonstop fares had grown so high.

It isn't a surprise that DL has also added service in a lot of west coast markets where WN is also large, including some such as LAX-OAK where it is WN mainline vs. DL large RJ. LAX-SAT and AUS are markets where DL says the E175 is necessary to be competitive but LAX-OAK is short enough that it still works with CR9s with FC cabins.

WN's fares are high enough and the economics of large RJs are good enough that DL can fly key markets without using large aircraft but still offering a good product.

Whatever the reason or aircraft, DL sees an opportunity to build out LAX and to go into highly competitive markets including Texas where each of the other big 3 carriers are stronger overall than DL and yet DL is clearly able based on the apparent success so far with LAX-AUS to have a presence - even with DL's limited facilities at LAX.

 

[FWAAA]

A quick review of the WN schedule for next Friday shows just two nonstops between SAT and LAX.   Some one-stop direct flights (no plane change) and lots of connecting itineraries.    All at high fares.   WN has no nonstops between SAT and BUR or ONT or SNA, but once again, some one-stops and some connecting itineraries, again at high fares.   WN ain't a low-fare airline these days.   
 
Looks like UA and AA are the predominant nonstop options.   In the first quarter, the AA flights were Envoy 2-class CRJ700s,  but now, the nonstops are flown by US Airways Express CRJ900s, so AA has added a few seats worth of capacity.    
 
In the first quarter, the US flights were, of course, connecting itineraries from BUR, LAX, ONT and LGB, all served via PHX.   Despite being the low-fare option on that route,  the US fare was essentially equivalent to the WN fare, and only slightly below the average fare in the market.   It almost looks like this is one of those markets where nobody is competing very aggressively on price.   Everybody is content to charge about the same fares.   

 

[robbedagain]

with regards to SNA  isnt there a limit from there  similar to DCA?

 

[WorldTraveler]

yes, robbed, SNA is slot controlled.

I presume your question is about adding service to SNA - and it would be more difficult because of slots. however, SNA does have a slot request and trading process that does work to allow slots to move between carriers.

 

[topDawg]

hard to know other than that DL wants a part in the LAX-Texas market and DL sees it as strategically necessary to grow its presence from Texas to the west and from LAX.

Adding 3 destinations in Texas from LAX in one year as well as LHR increases DL's position significantly in LAX.

Further, DL has yet to publish its final schedules for next year but LAX-AUS was initially loaded with a 717 but was downgraded to E175s and the 717 is not being used on the west coast yet. Given DL's buildup at both LAX and SEA, the chances are very high that DL will add another narrowbody fleet type to either LAX or SEA pilot bases to allow some of the large RJ flying to be upgraded to mainline.

The 717 is about 50% larger in terms of seats than an Ejet but takes up very little more ramp space which makes it a good aircraft to use in gate constrained airports which is the situation at both LAX and SEA.

As I have noted before, as DL's growth in NYC slows down and the network there is fine-tuned instead of focusing significant growth, DL's focus will shift to the western US.

For now the 717s are not going west. 
 
Also, even if they do it will be very limited. The plan all along has been to have 3 717 bases. ATL was first fallowed quickly by DTW. LAX was being looked at but Network changed their minds on the flying and thus the third and very likely final base is NYC. 
 
I personally wouldn't expect 717s out west for a while, if ever. 

 

[eolesen]

with regards to SNA  isnt there a limit from there  similar to DCA?

SNA has a strict noise control ordinance, and slots are part of that. That said, slots don't have any artificial limits on where you can fly to from SNA.


SAT's an interesting market. WN certainly dominates, but nobody comes too too close. It's also the largest market in Texas served by a single airport, and doesn't have the weather issues that both Houston and Dallas can experience with hurricanes and ice/hail... If an airline who didn't already have a hub in Texas really wanted to pee on the fire hydrant, that would be the obvious choice.

 

[WorldTraveler]

For now the 717s are not going west. 
 
Also, even if they do it will be very limited. The plan all along has been to have 3 717 bases. ATL was first fallowed quickly by DTW. LAX was being looked at but Network changed their minds on the flying and thus the third and very likely final base is NYC. 
 
I personally wouldn't expect 717s out west for a while, if ever.

yes, it is possible that the decision to base the 717s in NYC is the end of the possibility of them being in LAX or SEA.

What is clear is that LGA after the slot deal became a heavily large RJ hub; the 717s are now taking over some of the Shuttle flights but are also being used for off-season NYC (LGA and JFK) to Florida flights.

Off peak season to Florida is relatively short so those planes will be moved off of those routes and I predict they will free up large RJs. Given the number of large RJs in the system is limited by the pilot contract, large RJs that are freed up have to be deployed elsewhere. It could be at the hubs or it could be to add flights in the western US.

And in the west, unless DL pulls a merger or asset acquisition out of somewhere, it will need to start upgrading existing large RJ flights at both SEA and LAX to mainline... and it is highly likely they will do it. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think there is a 320/19 base on the west coast but is at SLC. It is possible that DL will use 319s and 320s and use SLC pilots but the ability to grow the west coast depends on upgrading. The 717 is the smallest mainline aircraft but perhaps there are enough flights that can far beyond the 717 in capacity. LAX-SEA is up to 4 mainline - 2 757s and 2 738s, SEALAS has a couple 738s, and SEASAN for the summer was 3 738s/320s per day.

so, yes, maybe the 717 won't go west but if it doesn't there either will be a lot more 737 west coast flying from LAX and/or a 320 base (which also allows use of the smaller 319). The 717s shorter range does make it a better aircraft for the shorter eastern US flights.

Either way, DL is not thru growing either LAX or SEA and as next summer's schedule is firmed up, it will become more and more indicative of DL's staffing needs on the west coast.

OTOH, DL might be reworking its fleet plan and network depending on what happens with AF this week. I have a feeling it is going to get really nasty.