It seemed like a very one sided arguement. There are some major hurdles to overcome...I don't think anybody doubts that. What nobody seems to look at is the US point of view. Doug Parker's job is to look out for US and its shareholders. In a lot of ways, this deal does go that direction.
-The Shuttle & Northeast in gerneral: Both Delta & US compete for many of the same North-South pax in this area. By acquiring Delta, US gets first dibs at DL's loyal customers. They have to sell the Shuttle...there's $75 million to pay some debt, and it comes from a carrier that is likely not to pose an additional threat to US. Most agree AA would buy the Shuttle. AA already has a strong NE presence, but buying the shuttle would make them so much stronger they would grab much of DL's loyals.
-The Southeast: Again, US gets first dibs at the most loyal customers by assuming their current mileage credit in SkyMiles program. Is there a chance that the DOJ makes them give up a SE hub? Maybe. But who to and which one. I think most would say, give up CLT. OK, DL has never competed well against AirTran, and in fact hurt its hometown reputation quite a bit in not matching FL's fares and thus seeming as though they were gouging their hometown customers. US, being a somewhat better low-fare carrier could possible pose a bigger threat to FL. Back to CLT...who gets that? AA or CO seem pretty likely contenders. That's great for them except they have no real reputation there and thus would have to rebuild the entire base. US still gets first dibs in the spoke cities.
-West Coast: DL is pretty weak in the West. Yes, they have SLC, but it's a pretty small hub overall. Again, US stands to gain the most loyal customers and let AA/CO/UA/NW, etc. fight it out for the rest.
Am I saying the deal wouold go through...no. It won't. As Bethune was quoted, the gov't seems to think airlines are public utilities. Until they start letting airlines operate like other industries, you won't see mergers. For some reason, we have no reason sending other well paying blue collar jobs everywhere else in the world (ask your local auto worker or should I say former auto worker about that) but I'll be darned if we let foreign companies play in our airline sandbox.
