Yep,,, and you probably predicted the TA would pass as well
how is your local handlingthe rejected T/A
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Not likely, they simply arent out there anymore. Last year the FAA only issued 6000 maintenance certifications, less than one third of the amount needed to make up for attrition.
Sytem Protection currently remains in place.
The only way that we could end up with no union is if the majority vote to have no union, that would not happen. If it came to a vote a union would win, just look at the perecentage that voted on the TA, figure if they voted, either way yes or No they excercised their rights as a union member and they would want to keep that right.
787nightmare
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"Not likely, they simply arent out there anymore. Last year the FAA only issued 6000 maintenance certifications, less than one third of the amount needed to make up for attrition."
Bob, I am telling you right here, right now...if AA wanted to bust the union in TULE, they'd have no problem AT ALL.(in fact if they struck, about 70% would cross the line as they appraoched the 30 day late mark with there creditors!)
There are A/Ps all around the midsouth and southern region. And with the economy the way it is, I guarantee you, they'd come running for a 28/hr job with some benes. There are plenty of people in Tulsa just itching to go to work out at American Airlines. Trust me...
Now...if we can get the economy humming again and get all the A/Ps back to work, where they want to go, that would affectively DRAIN the pool of qualified mechanics(those that have any kind of credentials), And we'd have the carriers where we want them again for bargaining wages/benes.
After reading your post "787" (after all these years), I finally think I realize why AA moved everything out of the NY area, into the Texas/Okla area, back in the later 70's.
eolesen
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Dunno. With unemployment where it is, had the NWA strike happened this year, I think you'd see higher numbers crossing the picket lines even in blue blooded places like DTW and MSP.
Working at the Walmart ain't gonna pay the mortgage regardless where you're living...
Besides, overhaul was never in NYC. The only thing that moved to TUL was accounting, and the rest that moved to DFW was mostly admin.
Even if the HDQ had remained in NYC, DFW would have likely still evolved as the mega-hub.
Don't forget about the A&Ps that are working for small airlines and making $17 an hour, I like Bob's thinking that we can not be replaced, but the reality is that we can and I fear that guys believing their own rhetoric will be our downfall like NWA. There are plenty of mechs out there don't kid yourself.
TWU informer
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Stupid is as Stupid Does
All things considered this is a pretty small industry, everyone I know that was laid off either was recalled or moved on, many who were never laid off and weren't at risk quit and moved on.
If you know where there are plenty of mechanics maybe you should let AAR know, they said if they could find them they would hire 100 tomorrow. If AAR cant find 100 to do shop work (where someone can just sign for their work)what makes you think AA could find at least 3000 Line Mechanics?
The fact is its the line operation that would be critcal in a strike, NWA spent 18 months preparing and training guys to bust the strike, at that time the industry had been going through a huge contraction and there were thousands of mechanics who were recently laid off, well that was five years ago and we have had five years of attrition that saw more people leave the industry but primarily by choice. New mechanics are not coming in at the rate they are leaving and havent been for some time.
New Certificates Issued,
Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Mech 6,352 5,830 5,980 5,555 5,651 6,120 6,064 7,733 8,083 8,894
Now when I got my tickets they were issued seperately, so my A&P would count as two, so at the most they issued 3100 A&P licenses correct me if I'm wrong. Either figure, 6000 or 3000 is not enough to replace all those who are leaving, keep in mind that this is for the entire Aviation industry,General, Corporate and Commercial. Last year AA alone saw around 500 leave, this year will likely see the same. Somebody living in Rochester New York making $25/hr isnt going to quit his job at a Local Airport and move to Queens New York to be a scab for $30. In fact few people would quit a job that they have to scab because they know when the strike is over they will either likely be gone or have to work in a unfriendly enviornment.
The FAA is in a bit of a conundrum right now, they've assisted the industry in lowering wages but now they feel a need to address fatigue issues, now that (pilot) fatigue has been linked to a fatal crash. They want to crack down on the hours mechanics work, many work two jobs in the industry and unlike pilots who log their hours mechanics dont so they really dont have the ability to track us. They realize that we work those hours in order to survive, if they tried to crack down all it would do is cause disruption within the industry, workers would have to refuse OT and quit working their second aviation jobs, this would cause a critical shortage. A while back I ran into a former collegue who is now FAA, he told me that he was in Dallas for a meeting on mechanic Fatigue, I told him that unless they address the money they cant address the fatigue, even if they found a way to limit our hours on the field they could not prevent us from doing other stuff outside the industry which we really dont want to do but we must.
I'm saddened to hear you think so liitle of your coworkers to say they would scab. I think sometimes we think too little of ourselves individually and as a group so before we assume what others would do let me start with you, would you cross the line?
Let me ask you this, did you think the TA would fail? Even though the International stuffed the ballotts with their little subtle VOTE YES insert it still went down.
If you know where there are plenty of mechanics maybe you should let AAR know, they said if they could find them they would hire 100 tomorrow. If AAR cant find 100 to do shop work (where someone can just sign for their work)what makes you think AA could find at least 3000 Line Mechanics?
The fact is its the line operation that would be critcal in a strike, NWA spent 18 months preparing and training guys to bust the strike, at that time the industry had been going through a huge contraction and there were thousands of mechanics who were recently laid off, well that was five years ago and we have had five years of attrition that saw more people leave the industry but primarily by choice. New mechanics are not coming in at the rate they are leaving and havent been for some time.
New Certificates Issued,
Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
Mech 6,352 5,830 5,980 5,555 5,651 6,120 6,064 7,733 8,083 8,894
Now when I got my tickets they were issued seperately, so my A&P would count as two, so at the most they issued 3100 A&P licenses correct me if I'm wrong. Either figure, 6000 or 3000 is not enough to replace all those who are leaving, keep in mind that this is for the entire Aviation industry,General, Corporate and Commercial. Last year AA alone saw around 500 leave, this year will likely see the same. Somebody living in Rochester New York making $25/hr isnt going to quit his job at a Local Airport and move to Queens New York to be a scab for $30. In fact few people would quit a job that they have to scab because they know when the strike is over they will either likely be gone or have to work in a unfriendly enviornment.
The FAA is in a bit of a conundrum right now, they've assisted the industry in lowering wages but now they feel a need to address fatigue issues, now that (pilot) fatigue has been linked to a fatal crash. They want to crack down on the hours mechanics work, many work two jobs in the industry and unlike pilots who log their hours mechanics dont so they really dont have the ability to track us. They realize that we work those hours in order to survive, if they tried to crack down all it would do is cause disruption within the industry, workers would have to refuse OT and quit working their second aviation jobs, this would cause a critical shortage. A while back I ran into a former collegue who is now FAA, he told me that he was in Dallas for a meeting on mechanic Fatigue, I told him that unless they address the money they cant address the fatigue, even if they found a way to limit our hours on the field they could not prevent us from doing other stuff outside the industry which we really dont want to do but we must.
I'm saddened to hear you think so liitle of your coworkers to say they would scab. I think sometimes we think too little of ourselves individually and as a group so before we assume what others would do let me start with you, would you cross the line?
Let me ask you this, did you think the TA would fail? Even though the International stuffed the ballotts with their little subtle VOTE YES insert it still went down.
787nightmare
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Bob, there are a few reasons AAR can't find the mechanics they're looking for. First and foremost, is they don't want to pay them anything. While I was out of the industry for a while(after my FedEx debacle)I contracted at AAR...for all of 2 wks(desperate for income), and told them, if this is what commercial aviation has come to, they can send this to Mexico too. I rolled my box out and loaded up and drove back to Tulsa. I also felt like I was assisting the airlines(Alaska in this case) in achieving there goal of driving down labor costs/wages/eliminating jobs. It was a "good ol boy" shithole, let me tell ya. I'm guessing word is out in the industry. All that was in that place, (aside from local hicks from Ok City area running the show), was contractors and guys fresh out of A/P school making 12-13 bucks/hr. Now, I have no idea what they pay up in IND, but I'm sure it ain't much more.
So, there's your answer there. No self respecting A/P's gonna go to that place and stay. I'd rather drive a truck or something...
Of course, you are correct in stating the line operations are the crucial maintenance operations for a carrier. And when I was out of the industry, I could've easily gone back to work for NWA. I left there in 98 and on good standing. I could've gone back to DTW, NO problem. But I wasn't about to do it. I could not do that to the guys I worked with in DTW and MSP(even though many I knew, DID cross-unbelievable). They were the tightest group of mechanics I've ever worked with. And I bit the bullet too in this period of my life. BK, and A LOT of other BS I went through over my job loss at FX.
Anyway...in the year and a half I was in TULE, I saw what the deal was. I talked to a lot of Supv(I was in a salaried position as a Sch), CC, and other mechanics. I hope I'm all wrong about the guys there...but I just get the real feeling...I am right on the money in my estimation about them. I also am from the deep south. And I know the prevailing attitude when it comes down to the nitty-gritty when a strike is called. Saw it at FX too. When it comes down to it... Some of you guys would be in disbelief who would cross, if a strike happened.
And I'm telling ya, AA would definitely lower there standards when it came time for replacement mechs. AA is also VERY grateful that base is located in the deep south and in a "right to work" state! Just the reality of the situation.
Don't get me wrong..I'm watching close, dropping in here all the time. I'm pulling for you guys...
Don't let the TWU get away with another one!
Starting wage for an OSM is under $10/hr and the starting wage for an AMT is $14.74, plus license(s). Thats pretty close to what it was when I entered the industry 30 years ago, even minimum wage has more than doubled.
Obviously the most important targets for a strike will be the major revenue generators, the five hubs, DFW, MIA, NY1,ORD, LAX. Thats where the impact would be felt the quickest, while its important to have the support of the bases the effect of a strike at the bases alone would take a little longer to impact the operation.
Sometimes people suprise you, did you think they would ever vote NO?
As an A&P and a Union man I thank you for not going to NWA.
well if the pay rates are so low how do they get anyone?
If the pay rates are going to be so low you would think no one would take the jobs.
The shortage of aircraft mech. I have been hearing that for several years even when I hired in 20 years ago.
is it not cheaper a stay at home and sponge off the goverment?
I will tell you at ord AA fueling did the planes for eagle (twu guys)
eagle decided to out source to ASIG $8.75 hour and theres plently of guys working for it.
lot of guys working for serair asig swiss air.
hell are own guys go work at other airlines in chicago
If the pay rates are going to be so low you would think no one would take the jobs.
The shortage of aircraft mech. I have been hearing that for several years even when I hired in 20 years ago.
is it not cheaper a stay at home and sponge off the goverment?
I will tell you at ord AA fueling did the planes for eagle (twu guys)
eagle decided to out source to ASIG $8.75 hour and theres plently of guys working for it.
lot of guys working for serair asig swiss air.
hell are own guys go work at other airlines in chicago
787nightmare
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You're very welcome Bob. And I can hold my head high too. 🙂............you know what??....it feels pretty good. The misery of being labeled a scab for the rest of your career(most scabs would be surprised how many times they're pointed out at the workplace--like you said, "it's a small industry for us A/Ps), isn't near worth the temporary relief of some paychecks for the there and now.
Looking back, I still can't see why people crossed the line at NWA. I know it would be a very hard decision for a senior guy, say 60 y/o, about to retire. Now, faced with the real possibility of NO job and everything crumbling around them.
It would be VERY hard. But the younger guys...IMO, they have options. Go contracting. Auto mechs...whatever. I hate the idea too, but it's a paycheck. There's other things an A/P can do.(although I think A LOT of companys want nothing at all to do with comml a/p mechs because they've dealt with them in the past & know they'll alyways return to the ind)And we all saw...eventually NWA came back around and made a(shitty)deal with the mech & related.
It doesn't really come as a surprise to me that the AA mechs system-wide voted no. And I have no idea what the breakdown of the TULE vote was...but no, I figured even TULE would reject a crappy T/A. My concern is, when the proverbial chit hits the fan(and everybody here knows what I'm talking about)...just what will the TULE mechs do?? My gut tells me, any strike better not last any longer than 30 days...
AA (and the TWU) has ALWAYS counted on the TULE vote to get a contract passed.
But hey...maybe they will surprise me 🙂
On another note...I'm not sure AA could gather enough scabs to complete the task of replacing AA mechs system-wide. They'd probably target the major hubs for line maint first, them wk on staffing OH bases later/slower. Be a huge task though, not sure there's quite enough aorun dat this juncture. But to threaten TULE and AFW...with replacements...is a very REAL threat IMO. Which.............is why the TULE mechs rightfully are afraid, mindful of this. The line guys are on there own basically. As I see it...................just sucks anyway you slice it man.
787nightmare
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Paul1...as has been stated time and again in this industry...."we are our worst own enemy".
Pointing to no one in particular...it's been my experience, that with the exception of the NWA guys in MSP and DTW...A/P mechs are the most ball-less bunch of individuals I've ever seen man.
We eat our own....we throw each other under the bus to gain a few "points" with our subordinates. Rather than stick together and lay the wood to a Supervisor who is trying to single out a mechanic, we let managment have there way with him.
"Doesn't concern me!"..................and one you guys never heard before 🙄 ............."I got mine!!".............what I've seen in the past 22 yrs in this industry is just amazing to me.
I never thought I'd see the A/P mechs get so b***h slapped as they've been.
MCI transplant
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<_< ------ Nightmare, you are as transparent as they come. I wouldn't be surprise if you weren't on HR's payroll!------ But, I thought they'd at least be more subtle than that! 😀
787nightmare
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😀 ....I've always felt that honesty is the best policy...that way you dont' have to remember what you said. 😉
I am a God fearing man and attend church regularly partner. My Lord expects it from me.
And I guess my honesty/candid attitudes and words get me in to trouble from time to time. 🙄
I really do hope the AA guys get a decent deal. I'm certain the entire airline industry executives are watching with interest...
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