Is This Merger Possible?

[WorldTraveler]

Fly,
your meter should show "pirate attack" since that appears to be the latest threat to surface travel.

http://us.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/africa/11/05/...ates/index.html

I guess no one predicted that either. Let's be honest, the folks on this board are as likely to predict the future of the airline industry as any Wall Street analyst since if they knew they too would be wearing ankle bracelets, now wouldn't they?

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

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FLY,

You are(IMHO)(without a doubt) "One luvable LUNATIC" 😛 😛 😛

True, a lot of the "opinions" are "wish lists",But there are "some" situations that make logical sense.

Especially if it involves AA. (Certainly NOT AA + UA) !!

Just a note about your "penguins"

That Poor penguin that keeps gettin' "####-slapped", has got to have a CONCUSSION..................
......by now. :blink: :blink: :blink:

Here's hopin' you DON'T pull that avatar, for a Loooooooong time.

NH/BB's

 

[Ch. 12]

I doubt an US Airways-Alaska combo. Why would Alaska want to give up a VERY lucrative codeshare with AA's worldwide system? There are rumors, by the way, that Alaska may merge with/be bought by AA.

This has been in the rumor mill for years.

A=Alaska
M=Midway
R=Reno

AMR has acquired one, put one out of biz, and continues to be rumored to be eyeing AS.

 

[Kev3188]

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FLY,

Here's hopin' you DON'T pull that avatar, for a Loooooooong time.

NH/BB's

I dunno, I kind of enjoyed the, um, "hydraulic" one she had before.

 

[NewHampshire Black Bears]

I dunno, I kind of enjoyed the, um, "hydraulic" one she had before.

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Kev3188,
I agree, the penguins have had a "good run" !

I just LOVE penguins

NH/BB's

 

[markkus757]

I still think the new US will be trying to acquire NW in about 12-16 months after Airbus realizes that NW might liquidate soon. They have a lot to lose if that happens and I think they might help front some of the money for acquisition to keep the used plane market from flooding soon. Delta might have a good fit with Cal in every way except the NE. AA will buy AS eventually. I think that UA will not be acquiring anybody. I think they will be too busy trying to shed F9 in DEN.

 

[Skymess]

I doubt an US Airways-Alaska combo. Why would Alaska want to give up a VERY lucrative codeshare with AA's worldwide system? There are rumors, by the way, that Alaska may merge with/be bought by AA.

That, and only that, is the rumor on the line. Though that alone should scare us because we didn't hear a da*n thing about a TWA merger until it happened. Be afraid of what you don't know and aren't prepared for.

 

[RowUnderDCA]

I get a sense of a NW/LCC entanglement, also. But I'm not sure if my 'vision' is more of a NW ploy to threaten to divest of its domestic structure to LCC in an effort to score outrageous concessions from employees.

I think LCC's motivation has been and will be continued concern that the industry is going to consolidate and its competitors' market reach is going to continue to expand. I suspect that LCC management is wedded to the idea that it needs to compete as a hybrid, which means it needs to maintain a breadth of destinations and services that its other 'low-cost' competitors are going to have to evolve to provide.

So, I think LCC wants to keep up with the Joneses in that regard. Who knows how it's going to end up.

 

[Fly]

I think that UA will not be acquiring anybody. I think they will be too busy trying to shed F9 in DEN.

I think you're not paying attention. Tilton has been the ringleader for merger. UAL will be merging with someone......soon.

 

[FWAAA]

I think you're not paying attention. Tilton has been the ringleader for merger. UAL will be merging with someone......soon.

I agree, and my prediction is that UA and DL finally get together, several years after their initial discussions. And this time, I don't see the antitrust enforcers blocking the deal like they did with the UAL-US merger over four years ago.

Not too long afterward, AMR finally takes over NW, more than five years after those two companies engaged in merger discussions. With NW, AA finally has equal access to China (equal with UAL, that is).

 

[RowUnderDCA]

......and then AA/NW divests NW's domestic system to LCC. ???

 

[FWAAA]

......and then AA/NW divests NW's domestic system to LCC. ???

I could certainly see that happening, since AA wouldn't be buying NW in order to take on three more domestic hubs or its Airbus fleet.

 

[WorldTraveler]

The NE is too big of a part of both CO and DL to say that all would be well other than the NE.

There is virtually no overlap between UA and DL so the only concern about a DL-UA merger is their total network size and it is hard to argue size amounts to much since the network carriers haven't had pricing power at all for several years.

Remember also that DL's former CEO Mullin who came to DL from Chicago tried to establish a marketing relationship with UA in the vein of what eventually was done w/ NW and CO; DL's pilots shot down a UA/DL marketing tie up and it was eventually dissolved. DL's pilots are being rendered powerless to stand in the way of the company's plans.

 

[PHX-F/A]

Is this just something you made up as a possibility? Or is there any truth to it?

This rumor actual hit the news wires a few weeks after the HP/US merger was announced back in May. Alaska postured itself way from the rumor with a SEC filing.

The rumor surfaced from someone at an investment firm that deals with Alaska.