Actually make sense, considering all the deliveries they're expecting this year.
Fairly large market, and non-stops to bigger cities east of the Miss. river should give JetBlue a little higher yields. Even with Southwest serving some of the same markets, don't believe we'll see a fare-war, as both carriers are looking to stay/become profitable.
SoftLanding
You may not believe that you would see a fare war, but I can assure you that you would see scorched earth wholesale destruction take no prisoners fare war.
Southwest would not sit idly by and watch B6 take a market away that Southwest not only built, but that they paid their good money to enlarge and upgrade the terminal building.
JetBlue encroachment into Islip might even plop Southwest down at JFK - and I think one would be underestimating the boys and girls from Dallas to think they lack enough political clout to get some slots or gates or whatever is necessary.
Southwest not only has a lot more money than JetBlue, they are still profitable. A good way for JetBlue to make sure they don't see any black ink for a long time would be to pick a fight with Southwest. An incursion into Islip would be viewed just that way.
When it comes to head to head competition on identical routes of identical stage length, JetBlue does not have a cost advantage.
Ex-fuel, JetBlue has a CASM of 5.40 to Southwest's 6.43. However, JetBlue achieves that on a 1200+ mile stage length versus 617 miles, I believe, for Southwest.
You correct for the average stage length disparity, I'd bet WN has a lower CASM.
You factor in fuel hedging, WN has a significantly better CASM.
JetBlue has tv sets and assigned seats, you say? Southwest has fewer customer complaints and a better on time record.
Southwest also has the capacity to make life very, very unpleasant for JetBlue if Neeleman decided to take Southwest on. Bracketing every flight you have with a departure 15 minutes before and 15 minutes after, and chopping the fare to whatever breaks them even at a 95% load factor....leaves JetBlue unable to charge enough to break even with a full boat.
JetBlue would be well served to take the advice of a famous General who advised against getting involved in a land war in the face of Asia. You choose to attack someone who is weak, someone you can defeat, someone who has high costs, someone whose operations are poor.
The only conceivable way I can see Southwest permitting JetBlue to establish a presence at Islip would be if JetBlue was hooking Southwest up with terminal space at another NYC area airport.
