LAX-HND in November?

[kirkpatrick]

Got a HI6 this morning with a proffer for up to 20 Japanese speakers for LAX for November 1.  Could this be the HND startup we've heard about?  I can't imagine suddenly needing 20 additional speakers for the current NRT service.  I can't find anything in the AA online timetable or in Sabre.
 
MK

 

[FWAAA]

I would say that you're correct. AA's backup authority requires that AA begin flying LAX-HND by November 30 or else the DOT will hold another route selection case, where HA (and maybe UA and DL) would once again fight for the HND frequency.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

So this might be a silly question:  if AA is looking for up to 20 Japanese speakers for LAX, does that mean that they will keep flying both NRT and HND from LAX?  If AA were to drop LAX-NRT as has been suggested, then there should be no need for additional Japanese speakers - right?

 

[FWAAA]

Excellent observation! I had not thought of that. I had assumed (pessimistically) that HND would certainly replace LAX-NRT, especially with JAL flying a big 773 LAX-NRT. But the call for more Japanese speakers argues that there will be more Tokyo flying, not a one-for-one trade of NRT for HND.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

You do realize that if AA does keep flying to NRT and HND out of LAX, it will shatter a theory advanced by some on here that the addition of US to AA does absolutely nothing that will help the company in any way what-so-ever to be competitive across the Pacific ............

 

[jimntx]

Well, if serving both Tokyo airports from the same U.S. departure station would make someone wrong in his prognostications, then we must contact DP immediately and tell him to cancel both routes.  Otherwise, we will get endless pages of "Yes, well, but the moonthumbs per available seat gallon will put AA in bankruptcy before Easter."

 

[FWAAA]

JAL will start NRT-DFW four times a week at the end of November, with no announcement by AA of any change to the double daily DFW-NRT, so if AA keeps LAX-NRT, these two flights will represent additional capacity to Tokyo by the joint venture. At some point, AA and JAL will have as much or more capacity to Tokyo from the mainland as the second-place airline (the one without a JV partner).

While it would be nice to see AA metal return to JFK-NRT, the joint venture needs to keep the additional service somewhat balanced, and AA has begun a lot of flying to Asia from DFW and from LAX, all operated as part of the joint venture, and the JAL pilots would argue that they deserve new flying also (like the second daily JFK flight plus BOS and SAN). With so many new AA routes to Asia, AA can't fly all the new Tokyo routes as well.

 

[IORFA]

Notice how much nicer it is on here without WT? He must have been put into the cornfield!

 

[IORFA]

JAL will start NRT-DFW four times a week at the end of November, with no announcement by AA of any change to the double daily DFW-NRT, so if AA keeps LAX-NRT, these two flights will represent additional capacity to Tokyo by the joint venture. At some point, AA and JAL will have as much or more capacity to Tokyo from the mainland as the second-place airline (the one without a JV partner).While it would be nice to see AA metal return to JFK-NRT, the joint venture needs to keep the additional service somewhat balanced, and AA has begun a lot of flying to Asia from DFW and from LAX, all operated as part of the joint venture, and the JAL pilots would argue that they deserve new flying also (like the second daily JFK flight plus BOS and SAN). With so many new AA routes to Asia, AA can't fly all the new Tokyo routes as well.

. I've heard th DFW-NRT start by JAL was not a choice of AA. Seems that wasn't exactly the whole teAAms plan.

 

[robbedagain]

the way I understand it is that it will hook up with number of AA flights in the codeshare...    and yes IORFA its been soo nice on here these few weeks or so

 

[FWAAA]

. I've heard th DFW-NRT start by JAL was not a choice of AA. Seems that wasn't exactly the whole teAAms plan.

I've heard that too. The wide variety of new AA flights to Asia, operated as part of the joint venture with JAL, has to have impacted the traffic that connects at NRT, so I can't see AA still needing two daily 777s DFW-NRT, so I figured that AA would cut one of the flights and JAL would fly a much-smaller 787 instead. And it would make sense to me if AA then replaced its remaining 777 with a 787 of its own.

 

[jcw]

Maybe start a PHL to NRT

 

[FWAAA]

Maybe start a PHL to NRT

Perhaps, but it's a very small market. In 2014, PHL-TYO was a mere 15 PDEW. WAS-TYO was 100 PDEW. Nashville has more TYO O&D than PHL (20 PDEW).

 

[FWAAA]

Math error: Need to post and then drink, not drink and then post. The above should have read:

Perhaps, but it's a very small market. In 2014, PHL-TYO was a mere 30 PDEW. WAS-TYO was 200 PDEW. Even Nashville has more TYO O&D than PHL (40 PDEW).

 

[WorldTraveler]

It is more notable that if AA is starting LAX-HND in November, it would be doing so with very little notice which would almost certainly lead to enormous losses. Starting a route in the winter to a country where the currency is at a multi-year low against the dollar is bad enough but starting a route against two established competitors pushes the certainty of losses over the top.
Given that AA had by far the weakest average fares on JFK-HND of any route between the US and HND, the potential for losses and the time required for AA to start generating industry average fares will be very high.
Interestingly, there have been rumors that the Japan is supposedly offering US carriers daytime slots at HND. Since this came about only AFTER DL returned its SEA-HND slots which AA has not started with LAX-HND, there undoubtedly are “discussions” in Washington. At the same time, AA/JL are having to sort out their own strategic mess with HND since JL chose to start SFO-HND and UA now serves it with far greater ability to feed it from California while in any situation, JL and NH will be on the same page at HND.
AA might be trying to not start LAX-HND until it can get daytime slots but DL might be happy to drag out those discussions to either force AA to start the route with little notice and lose plenty of money or to lose the route, either forcing it to return to DL or go to Hawaiian and off the mainland.
And of course there could be some other reason why AA is needing a bunch of Japanese speakers at LAX but the chances that any will result in a sustained profitable presence for AA from LAX to Japan are probably not high.