LAX-HND in November?

[kirkpatrick]

A quick and dirty examination of the LAX bid results for September shows 3 Japanese speakers on reserve, 10 holding relief lines (the lines someone on vacation isn't flying) and 32 holding NRT lines.  It looks to me like they've got the single flight pretty well covered. 
 
Twenty more simply doesn't make sense without additional flying.
 
MK

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

Given that AA had by far the weakest average fares on JFK-HND

JFK-HND and LAX-HND are comparable markets?
 
And it's interesting how in this instance you are focusing on average fares, whereas in the transcons where DL fares suck royally, you tend to ignore this little statistic.  You wouldn't have a narrative to peddle would you?
 

Interestingly, there have been rumors that the Japan is supposedly offering US carriers daytime slots at HND. ... ... ....  but DL might be happy to drag out those discussions

Is DL a party to these discussions?
No?
So now you're implying DL has a huge influence on policy makers in DC? That's interesting - but one has to wonder, if DL has all this mighty influence, why it didn't use it to prevent the gov from imposing conditions on DL that eventually lead it to surrender the HDN slot to AA.
 
Taken together, it sounds like we have another WT Fabricated Fact.

 

[robbedagain]

sure as heck did not take long for the anti aa and the transpacific crap vs the ole mighty pro dl and its transpacific to get into gear

 

[WorldTraveler]

The question has been asked for months about where AA's LAX-HND route is... they have a time limit to start the route specifically because there is no basis for stripping the HND award from DL or imposing restrictions on DL to operate its flights daily if AA is not held to the same requirement.

and JFK-HND like DTW-HND was an eastern US route. NYC is a far larger Japan market than DTW is. The comparison is as valid as can be made about HND service. and since AA and UA still significantly underperforms DL average fares in LAX-NRT which all 3 US airlines serve, then it is relevant to compare how well AA could do wiht LAX-HND.

if you want to talk about the JFK-LAX market, AA's TOTAL REVENUE in the market has grown at the lowesst pace of the largest competitors. Average fares are one part of the equation. DL is growing its total revenue far faster than AA. The JFK transcon market is rapidly shifting to being dominated by DL and B6 with reducing total share and revenue relative to DL and B6 while UA is leaving the market. B6 and DL BOTH have lower average fares than AA or UA but are increasing their revenues. both can clearly compete in a market where AA is trying to skim from the top which UA did for years while UA is leaving.

AA IS a profit motivated company. If it was simply a matter of hiring Japanese speakers, AA would have started LAX-HND months ago.

The reason why the route hasn't been announced, let alone started, is because AA is trying not to lose boatloads of money flying a route after working so hard to improve its TPAC results.

the staffing increase aspect of the route is great but the only reason why it can happen and be retained is if AA can profitably operate an additional route to Japan. It has yet to be seen that AA can do that.

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

JFK-HND and LAX-HND are comparable markets?

 

and JFK-HND like DTW-HND was an eastern US route. NYC is a far larger Japan market than DTW is. The comparison is as valid as can be made about HND service. and since AA and UA still significantly underperforms DL average fares in LAX-NRT which all 3 US airlines serve, then it is relevant to compare how well AA could do wiht LAX-HND.

 
if JFK-HND and DTW-HND routes were a disaster, there is no way you can compare that to LAX-HND (or possibly even west coast to HND).
 
But please, do spin away.

 

[WorldTraveler]

then if that is the case, then AA should have started LAX-HND a long time ago.

They have not because the route is not likely to be profitable for quite some time.

and we can indeed compare LAX-NRT which all 3 US airlines have flown for years. Further, DL and NH (and by extension UA) serve LAX-HND so AA would have to be starting LAX-HND against two competitors in the winter with the same economic situations.

good for the possibility that AA will add more Japanese speakers to LAX... but sustained economic justification for growing AA's presence at LAX to Japan is not there.

 

[AirwAr]

You do realize that if AA does keep flying to NRT and HND out of LAX, it will shatter a theory advanced by some on here that the addition of US to AA does absolutely nothing that will help the company in any way what-so-ever to be competitive across the Pacific ............

 
How does this "shatter" the theory?  What is US providing that AA couldn't have done on their own?
 
Also...IF we find out that AA won't be flying to both NRT & HND...does that "shatter" the theory by some on here that US has absolutely helped AA in every way what-so-ever to be competitive across the Pacific?

 

[FrugalFlyerv2.0]

then if that is the case, then AA should have started LAX-HND a long time ago.

They have not because the route is not likely to be profitable for quite some time.

 
So AA went through the hassle of getting the HND slot from DL so they could obtain a route to lose (more) money?
Besides you, I don't know how many others agree with your theory.
 
 

How does this "shatter" the theory?  What is US providing that AA couldn't have done on their own?
 
Also...IF we find out that AA won't be flying to both NRT & HND...does that "shatter" the theory by some on here that US has absolutely helped AA in every way what-so-ever to be competitive across the Pacific?

 
A while back there was a thread, or several where the commentary was along the lines of AA is weak across the Pacific and the addition of US will not improve this situation for AA.  I argued that while US did not serve any destinations in Asia, they still have customers that fly to Asia and to do so use * alliance partners - now they will be able to fly AA/US instead of * alliance.
That doesn't mean that AA all of the sudden leaps to top dog across the Pacific, but certainly the addition of US (network and customers) certainly helps the expansion AA is doing across the Pacific.  IMHO.

 

[eolesen]

But please, do spin away.

No, please don't. It's been refreshing here for the last week.

Better yet, put him on ignore and don't bother responding. That way, we can keep the discussion friendly environment.

 

[FWAAA]

Business travel to Tokyo isn't "seasonal," as AA pointed out at great length in its DOT filings. Travel to SIN/BKK and some other beyond-Tokyo connections does slow down in the fall and winter, but the primary focus of LAX-HND will be business travelers heading to/from Tokyo, not connections to leisure/beach markets.

Will AA lose money in the first few months? Probably, just like DL was losing money whenever it operated SEA-HND.

As to the "help" that US provides, I made the same arguments as FF - that the US frequent flyers would have probably flown to Asia on UA/NH/SQ, and with the merger, that pool of customers will now probably fly AA. Should be good for some incremental shift away from UA/NH.

then if that is the case, then AA should have started LAX-HND a long time ago.

DL's SEA-HND frequency becomes available on October 1, so how would AA have possibly begun LAX-HND "a long time ago?" Or are you saying that AA should have announced the launch "a long time ago," like in June or July?

 

[Kev3188]

Amen, E.

A board is only as good as people make it...

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL knew full well that it could make money flying to HND 6 or 7 months per year from SEA. DL might not even make money flying LAX-HND in the winter but they apparently make enough money in the summer to offset their winter losses plus whatever strategic value there is in operating the route.

There is no evidence that AA's fortunes with LAX-HND will be any different than they were with JFK-HND or DL's were with DTW-HND or SEA-HND in the winter.

DL also knew full well that there is a time limit by which AA has to start the route or they lose it. AA will either be forced to start the route

If there are conversations going on regarding daytime access to HND, then DL absolutely has a case to argue that they gave up the SEA-HND route based on current market conditions which include night time flights. DL could make DTW-HND and a number of other routes work if they had daytime slots.

and despite what some might want to believe, the DOT and State both represent the interests of US companies and US airlines are absolutely invited to provide their prespectives on what what will enhance US companies which the DOT and State then use to negotiate for US companies.

DOT has repeatedly noted that providing a balanced position in Japan is a goal which they have used to obtain route access and grant route awards.

US might have moved some traffic to AA across the Pacific but LAX has been a highly competitive market to Asia for quite some time.

AA has begun to see some improvements to Japan since the merger but it is also true that has come largely at the expense of UA which has lost revenue to both AA and DL so it isn't certain that the merger has had anything to do with changes in Japan.

Since UA has also started SFO-HND and has cut seats but not flights from LAX to Asia, which AA is and will be doing, it isn't certain that the final results of merger and hub changes can be seen at this point.

AA is still the weakest of the big 3 not only from LAX to Asia but from the entire west coast. The merger didn't change that.

If facts get in the way of people's perception of what makes a "good board" then it says very little about the desire to actually discuss facts

If AA actually starts LAX-HND and retains LAX-NRT while generating financial results somewhat comparable to the industry, then we will have something to talk about.

Right now, AA hasn't even announced LAX-HND let alone operated the first flight and the hundreds of others that will determine whether the route can be profitable for the long-term which is the only way that AA can justify hiring a bunch of new employees.

 

[conehead777]

DL knew full well that it could make money flying to HND 6 or 7 months per year from SEA. DL might not even make money flying LAX-HND in the winter but they apparently make enough money in the summer to offset their winter losses plus whatever strategic value there is in operating the route.There is no evidence that AA's fortunes with LAX-HND will be any different than they were with JFK-HND or DL's were with DTW-HND or SEA-HND in the winter.DL also knew full well that there is a time limit by which AA has to start the route or they lose it. AA will either be forced to start the routeIf there are conversations going on regarding daytime access to HND, then DL absolutely has a case to argue that they gave up the SEA-HND route based on current market conditions which include night time flights. DL could make DTW-HND and a number of other routes work if they had daytime slots.and despite what some might want to believe, the DOT and State both represent the interests of US companies and US airlines are absolutely invited to provide their prespectives on what what will enhance US companies which the DOT and State then use to negotiate for US companies.DOT has repeatedly noted that providing a balanced position in Japan is a goal which they have used to obtain route access and grant route awards.US might have moved some traffic to AA across the Pacific but LAX has been a highly competitive market to Asia for quite some time.AA has begun to see some improvements to Japan since the merger but it is also true that has come largely at the expense of UA which has lost revenue to both AA and DL so it isn't certain that the merger has had anything to do with changes in Japan.Since UA has also started SFO-HND and has cut seats but not flights from LAX to Asia, which AA is and will be doing, it isn't certain that the final results of merger and hub changes can be seen at this point.AA is still the weakest of the big 3 not only from LAX to Asia but from the entire west coast. The merger didn't change that.If facts get in the way of people's perception of what makes a "good board" then it says very little about the desire to actually discuss factsIf AA actually starts LAX-HND and retains LAX-NRT while generating financial results somewhat comparable to the industry, then we will have something to talk about.Right now, AA hasn't even announced LAX-HND let alone operated the first flight and the hundreds of others that will determine whether the route can be profitable for the long-term which is the only way that AA can justify hiring a bunch of new employees.

you don't use facts you use your hate for American Airlines to spread hateful untruths. They can't announce it till delta is done and becomes available October 1 so your broken record is getting old I just checked delta is still flying sea Hnd today so the route isn't available for American to start yet . So stop spewing lies and wrong information

 

[WorldTraveler]

DL has returned the authority and has an end date for its SEA-HND service in less than 2 weeks.

AA does not have to wait until DL's last flight in order to announce AA's intention to fly the route

AA was awarded automatic backup authority.

 

 

[700UW]

Isn't this the AA board and isn't this topic about AA launching a LAX-HND route?