Mia/fll In 2004: A Great Year (?)

MAH4546

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Aug 22, 2002
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With the first major part of the new terminal set to open in only a month or two, and with the air travel market rebounding (and the Miami air travel market prooving to be one of the strongest right now), 2004 is looking like a great year for Miami. In the past year, we finally had all those rumours of "Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas", which had been doing on endlessly for years, answered. We also saw Indianapolis, Columbus, Charlotte, Punta Cana, Cincinnati. In January we see Richmond and Guanacaste Liberia. Ft. Lauderdale has seen Los Angeles go to four daily flights, not to mention Raleigh, Caracas, Port-Au-Prince, and Santo Domingo. I've always heard rumours of "new MIA service this, new MIA servie that", but it has not been until recently that almost all the rumours have been answered. What do we all potentially see for MIA (and AA's ever growing focus city operation at FLL) in 2004/05?

FLL:
I have heard very strong rumours that another two new destinations are coming: A daily 757 redeye to San Francisco and a daily 737-800 to San Jose, Costa Rica. If so, this would be even more great news. American is currently the #3 carrier at FLL, but is expected to end the year ahead of Southwest as the #2 carrier at FLL.

MIA:
With regards to mainline domestic expansion, here some potentials:

Phoenix - good, large market; underserved from Miami with only HP flying
Kansas City - no non-stops to South Florida; one of the largest O&D market from the area not served non-stop (over 500 people per day)
Providence - no non-stops (sans a Saturday-only WN flight during the winter); over 700 O&D passengers a day. PVD is the largest O&D market from both MIA and FLL not served non-stop. FLL and MIA are the two largest O&D markets from PVD not served non-stop. A perfect match.
San Diego - tried before. A daily 738 could work fine.
Seattle - tried before. Alaska Airlines sure doesn't mind this gap in AA's route map.
San Jose - iffy market. I'm not sure AA wants to give it another go.

American Eagle potential expansion:
Norfolk, Birmingham, Greer, Greensboro, Memphis, Columbia (SC), Gainesville

International:
Valencia, Venezuela: I keep hearing this one is a go and is coming in late 2004.
Frankfurt, Germany: The two-class 763s bring profit potential to this leisure route.
Manchester, England: If AA can get in on it before bmi, more profit potential thanks to two-class 763s.
Brussels, Belgium: Substational O&D market left unfilled here.
Barcelona, Spain: Would finally give BCN residents one-stop connections to Central America. And strong leisure traffic from the US side.

Any other ideas? I know AA's plan is ~330 daily flights by 2007, and the bulk is from more destinations rather than more frequencies. And someone know what the deal is with Guanacaste Liberia service? AA is only planning on serving it between 31Jan04 and 11Apr04. Why so short? Especially with Delta and soon Continental flying there year-round.
 
How about AE service to XNA? Maybe even a mix of AE and mainline, as with XNA-DFW. Or is XNA adequately covered with service to LAX, DFW, ORD and LGA?
 
FWAAA said:
How about AE service to XNA? Maybe even a mix of AE and mainline, as with XNA-DFW. Or is XNA adequately covered with service to LAX, DFW, ORD and LGA?
American Eagle could likely pull of a weekend MIA-XNA service, IMO, though no mainline or daily demand. I don't see it happening, but more surprising things have happened (like AEagle's MIA-RIC announcement over larger markets like ORF and GSO).
 
Hey AA, you've done well flying to Colombia charging $500r/t from Miami for 12 years now. How about service back to Barranquilla? You traded BAQ for MED, not a good deal. Avianca now flies 120 pax a day from BAQ-MIA in an MD-83, Aeroflot Americas is what that is. BAQ needs your dependable daily service with a 737-800. I think this problem may fix itself soon. Avianca is in Ch11 and will probably become Lan Colombia. A320 to Miami from colombia, now that an idea, didn't Aces do that.
 
If AA can only serve 3 cities in Colombia, and MDE is a more profitable/lucrative market than BAQ, why would we cancel the service to go back to BAQ?
 
JFK777 said:
Hey AA, you've done well flying to Colombia charging $500r/t from Miami for 12 years now. How about service back to Barranquilla? You traded BAQ for MED, not a good deal. Avianca now flies 120 pax a day from BAQ-MIA in an MD-83, Aeroflot Americas is what that is. BAQ needs your dependable daily service with a 737-800. I think this problem may fix itself soon. Avianca is in Ch11 and will probably become Lan Colombia. A320 to Miami from colombia, now that an idea, didn't Aces do that.
As it has been said over and over on these boards, American Airlines is only allowed to serve three cities in Colombia, and they chose to serve the three largest...Bogota, Cali, and Medellin. Medellin is a city significantly larger than Barranquilla, more than double the size, and with a large oil industry that leads to a lot of premium fares and business passengers.

When the Colombian government stops being so greedy and allows American Airlines accsess to other markets, I have no doubt Barranquilla will see American Airlines service once more, and I think Cartagena may welcome American Airlines as well in that scenario. Until that happens, you will not see American Airlines back at BAQ.

Until then, passengers in Barranquilla will have to live with Avianca's daily MD-83 service to Miami, though AeroRepublica is planning on launching MIA-BAQ to give them some compieition next year (and they were able to get Colombian government approval).

On a side note, only Avianca's US subsidairy is in Chapter 11. Thier parent company in Bogota is not doing that well, but it is not in Chapt. 11.
 
MAH4546,

Avianca's Us subsidiary is in CH11 because most the planes are leased through the US. Mr. Santo Domingo( the Frank Lorenzo of Avianca) skims of the top from Avianca and he is the one to blame. Avianca has retirned 3 757's and 2 767's. The reason for the US bankruptcy is the corporate sructure.
 

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