WorldTraveler said:
[...] and if DL moves and adds space - which could include a similar arrangement to what AA is doing at 4 and the international terminal with DL gaining space in part of the int'l terminal along with 2 and 3 - then all of the talk about how much of a size advantage AA would have in space would turn out NOT to be the case after all.
[...] Some of us have said for years that all of the talk about AA growing at LAX could not happen without knowing the rest of the story which includes what DL would do. DL has indicated LAX is a key part of its west coast strategy alongside SEA and if they are willing to spend money to gain additional space, then the LAX market will tighten between AA and DL. Given that DL has managed to significantly grow its market share even with the smallest number of gates of the big 3, it is far from clear how any facility restructuring at LAX will affect market share long-term and on the west coast as a whole.
Here is the rest of the story.
As of the first quarter of this year, Delta was prepared to proceed with the second phase of the T5 improvements until LAWA pulled the plug on that phase pending a deal. The Board Report I mentioned above confirms this. The second phase of T5 improvements would more or less have relegated Delta to T5 and the number of gates that they have now. End of story.
The real story here is what LAWA is doing for AA. AA and LAWA have been in negotiations over the status of AA's maintenance facilities and the Master Lease to T4. AA wanted more gates in TBIT, plus some of the items mentioned in the first post. LAWA has offered more gates in T5. If LAWA can finalize a deal with Delta and partners to move to T3/T2, AA will expand into T5.
As to Delta, it benefits by pure accident from the necessity LAWA had to make a deal with AA. There is no Delta
Master Plan at work here. On that note, you should know that, while LAWA intends to build a connector between T3 and TBIT, it has not offered Delta preferential use of any gates at TBIT. It also the case that Delta will not have exclusive use of T2. Southwest is already acting on its intention to use T2 for international arrivals/departures and domestic departures. In short, after all the dust settles, Delta will not have overcome AA's size advantage at LAX. AA will still have many more preferential use gates, including the ones it gains at T5. What Delta gains, however, is access to more common use gates in TBIT and T2. I imagine that is the incentive.
Moreover, it is not going to be a seamless move for Delta. I don't see how LAWA/Delta build a connector and new T3 in 4 to 5 years. I'm thinking the 4 to 5 years was AA's stipulation for any deal. That's probably when AA wants the T5 gates or no deal. However, LAWA was counting on the MSC North to be ready before starting any work on T3. If I remember correctly, the MSC North won't be ready until 2020. Meanwhile, the 2024 Olympic bid has put pressure on LAWA to accelerate work on the CTA APM. Only so much money, so little time.