More Competition

[700UW]

story

 

[Lloyds5]

story

I wonder how much Southwest's entry in these South Carolina markets will trash the yields and draw traffic away from Charlotte?

 

[FrankWasRight]

Wow,I hope they start service to PIT.Not likely,though.

 

[redheadtempe33]

I wonder how much Southwest's entry in these South Carolina markets will trash the yields and draw traffic away from Charlotte?

Not from Charleston but perhaps from Greenville. Via Google Maps, Charleston is over 3+ hours away from Charlotte. Some might drive that far to fly SW, but probably not many (especially when you factor in gas, parking, etc.).
Greenville though, is only 1 to 1.5 hours away. I can't speak for the SC/NC market, but where I'm from, COS, people routinely drive 1.5 hours to DIA for the cheaper fares.

 

[JetMonkey]

Not from Charleston but perhaps from Greenville. Via Google Maps, Charleston is over 3+ hours away from Charlotte. Some might drive that far to fly SW, but probably not many (especially when you factor in gas, parking, etc.).
Greenville though, is only 1 to 1.5 hours away. I can't speak for the SC/NC market, but where I'm from, COS, people routinely drive 1.5 hours to DIA for the cheaper fares.

Same thing here in TUS. People far and large drive up the road to PHX, only 1.5 hours for cheaper fares.

 

[cltbwimob]

I wonder how much Southwest's entry in these South Carolina markets will trash the yields and draw traffic away from Charlotte?

Why do you care so much about "trashed yields" in CLT; just about everything you post contains that theme somewhere.

As for WN's entry into SC, I don't think that it will matter to CLT as much as you think. First, WN will probably put a small operation in GSP with only a handful of flights...My guess is that they will start out with no more than 15 flights per day to no more than 5 destinations. This seems to be the current trend with Southwest (i.e. Panama City when opened will only have 8 flights to 4 cities). And considering that RDU only has about 45 flights per day with WN in a much larger O&D market than GSP, I doubt you will see any sizeable operation in GSP at all. That means that GSP could only compete with CLT on a handful of routes. Furthermore, some of CLT's prime destinations such as NY, Boston, Atlanta, Baltimore, FLL/Miami, and Orlando, already have LCC service from Charlotte, and those have not trashed the yields. What makes you think that an airline in an airport over 1 hour away will kill Charlotte yields. Also not everyone of those passengers will be former Charlotte pax. Some will be from Asheville, Columbia, Atlanta, Augusta, and Greenville-Spartanburg. That means that a lot of those seats will be sold to people who weren't originating from Charlotte in the first place. Finally CLT is a connecting hub serving approximately 25 million non O&D pax per year. Those connecting pax wouldn't be using the WN service from GSP in the first place.

Will WN's entry into GSP cannibalize some passenger loads...probably, but don't look for it to do major damage. It might tak away 100k-200k passengers per year from CLT, but at an airport with close to 10 million O&D pax per year, those types of losses don't amount to much more than a rounding error

 

[Travelpro72]

Not to worry. WN wouldn't DARE try to compete with US and their biggest hub in CLT. Unlike PHL the CLT market has nowhere near the O&D traffic to share with WN if they arrived in CLT. It's just a matter of time. Tic toc, tic toc, tic toc.....

 

[FutureUScapt]

Not from Charleston but perhaps from Greenville. Via Google Maps, Charleston is over 3+ hours away from Charlotte. Some might drive that far to fly SW, but probably not many (especially when you factor in gas, parking, etc.).
Greenville though, is only 1 to 1.5 hours away. I can't speak for the SC/NC market, but where I'm from, COS, people routinely drive 1.5 hours to DIA for the cheaper fares.

Same thing here in TUS. People far and large drive up the road to PHX, only 1.5 hours for cheaper fares.

Your points are well taken and acknowledged (indeed that was the primary reason US cited for leaving COS), but that's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. In both of those instances, people are making a drive from a smaller city to a larger city where there are both lower fares AND a plethora of nonstop options. Those driving to GSP will not have the luxury of having numerous nonstop options. In fact, some of the likeliest candidates for GSP service already have low-cost competition from CLT (namely BWI and MCO), making the drive less appealing.

What I find interesting about the announcement of GSP is that you can now reasonably infer that WN has no near term plans to enter ATL or CLT otherwise you can't honestly have expected them to announce this.

GSP will no doubt attract some CLT fliers, but it won't be the ones that were lower-yielding to begin with. Also, while Gastonia is certainly a growing area (west of the airport along I-85 south for those unfamiliar with the area) the majority of growth in the CLT area is on the north and southeast sides meaning that you are easily looking at a 2hr+ drive in moderate traffic. It would be interesting to see how many will end up making the trek down to GSP.

 

[Singleflyer]

I think GSP is the more interesting move, being between CLT and ATL, and is a growing area this will probably do quite well

CHS on the other hand is seasonal, and I cant see more than 8 flights a day. DL is currently the biggest at the airport, and reduces the flying quite a bit for Jan and Feb and a bit for the other off-season months.

 

[Lloyds5]

Why do you care so much about "trashed yields" in CLT; just about everything you post contains that theme somewhere.

As for WN's entry into SC, I don't think that it will matter to CLT as much as you think. First, WN will probably put a small operation in GSP with only a handful of flights...My guess is that they will start out with no more than 15 flights per day to no more than 5 destinations. This seems to be the current trend with Southwest (i.e. Panama City when opened will only have 8 flights to 4 cities). And considering that RDU only has about 45 flights per day with WN in a much larger O&D market than GSP, I doubt you will see any sizeable operation in GSP at all. That means that GSP could only compete with CLT on a handful of routes. Furthermore, some of CLT's prime destinations such as NY, Boston, Atlanta, Baltimore, FLL/Miami, and Orlando, already have LCC service from Charlotte, and those have not trashed the yields. What makes you think that an airline in an airport over 1 hour away will kill Charlotte yields. Also not everyone of those passengers will be former Charlotte pax. Some will be from Asheville, Columbia, Atlanta, Augusta, and Greenville-Spartanburg. That means that a lot of those seats will be sold to people who weren't originating from Charlotte in the first place. Finally CLT is a connecting hub serving approximately 25 million non O&D pax per year. Those connecting pax wouldn't be using the WN service from GSP in the first place.

Will WN's entry into GSP cannibalize some passenger loads...probably, but don't look for it to do major damage. It might tak away 100k-200k passengers per year from CLT, but at an airport with close to 10 million O&D pax per year, those types of losses don't amount to much more than a rounding error

10,000,000 O&D Passengers in Clt?- check your facts no where near that number. I think the number is more like 2.5 million but it did grow by a healthy 8.4% last year but not 10 million. And yes some destinations from CLT do have LCC service but SW is the king of LCC's and they do trash yields in every market they enter or encircle. I do think it is a matter of time until they enter CLT not with a massive operation but with a small operation like RDU - but who knows Jerry Orr has bet the farm that US will be there forever- only time will tell however.

 

[FutureUScapt]

10,000,000 O&D Passengers in Clt?- check your facts no where near that number. I think the number is more like 2.5 million but it did grow by a healthy 8.4% last year but not 10 million. And yes some destinations from CLT do have LCC service but SW is the king of LCC's and they do trash yields in every market they enter or encircle. I do think it is a matter of time until they enter CLT not with a massive operation but with a small operation like RDU - but who knows Jerry Orr has bet the farm that US will be there forever- only time will tell however.

Huh? You might want to check your facts.

For 2008 (the latest full year available), the O&D at Charlotte was around 8.4 million and will likely be right at or above 9 million for 2009 - far closer to the 10 million number than your 2.5 million. BTW, those numbers are domestic only, which admittedly the international O&D isn't substantial for CLT, but the total traffic number would still be somewhat higher than those figures.

There really is little room for WN at CLT currently, and while a gate would have to made available for them because CLT accepts PFC revenue, there certainly isn't the space for them to have an operation the size of what they have at RDU.

 

[Travelpro72]

Look at what WN has been up to lately. Most of the smaller markets are tapped out. They are entering cities like LGA, BOS, PHL etc. Do you seriously think that WN won't come to CLT? CLT is a growing city and getting bigger each year. Think again if you believe WN won't be knocking on the door. There isn't a city that I know of that said, "Ummm thanks anyway but we're happy with our legacy carrier and high fares". Please. 🙄 WN will come to CLT when they are good and ready. It's not a question of IF but WHEN. For now they'll just circle the area around CLT before making their grand entrance. 😉

 

[Dog Wonder]

When those vultures circling CLT land the weak and lame better be hiding.

 

[cltbwimob]

10,000,000 O&D Passengers in Clt?- check your facts no where near that number. I think the number is more like 2.5 million but it did grow by a healthy 8.4% last year but not 10 million. And yes some destinations from CLT do have LCC service but SW is the king of LCC's and they do trash yields in every market they enter or encircle. I do think it is a matter of time until they enter CLT not with a massive operation but with a small operation like RDU - but who knows Jerry Orr has bet the farm that US will be there forever- only time will tell however.

In another thread, someone just posted the O&D numbers for Q3 2009...2.34 million for a single quarter multiply that by 4 you get approximately 9.5 million. The 2.5 million number you came up with is more than likely from a single quarter. The last full year that I remember seeing was 2007 from the same group IIRC... CLT had 8.8 million domestic only O&D, and it seems as if those numbers are growing. I assure you that I did check my facts before I posted.

 

[SparrowHawk]

Look at what WN has been up to lately. Most of the smaller markets are tapped out. They are entering cities like LGA, BOS, PHL etc. Do you seriously think that WN won't come to CLT? CLT is a growing city and getting bigger each year. Think again if you believe WN won't be knocking on the door. There isn't a city that I know of that said, "Ummm thanks anyway but we're happy with our legacy carrier and high fares". Please. 🙄 WN will come to CLT when they are good and ready. It's not a question of IF but WHEN. For now they'll just circle the area around CLT before making their grand entrance. 😉

Why invade CLT? If I'm WN I build up EVERY airport surrounding CLT. Like the ones they are entering. Oddly enough that was the strategy of Mao Tse Tung, we starved the big cities by conquering the countryside. If they set up shop in Greenboro, Greenville/Spartanburg, Columbia and Charlestown and Ashville would WN then be able to crush yields in CLT? Seem to me they could put a real dent in CLT especially if the out cities go to PHL, LGA & DCA.

Just a thought.