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On 4/28/2003 12:33:04 PM TWAnr wrote:
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I have heard and read all sort of rumors over the past few weeks. However, just do the math. The new work rules eliminate 2,391 flight attendant positions. Approximately 2,700 flight attendants are currently on overage leaves of absence. With the new contract, the attractiveness of OVLA is greatly diminished, especially due to the elimination of company paid health insurance. Many are expected to return to the line. Add the numbers up and you get close to the 5,100 figure. What is left out of the equation is the number of those who will retire or quit in lieu of returning to work.
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Not doubting your basic logic and reasoning here, but I''d like to play with those numbers a bit more. The 2391 is arrived at by adding up the headcount reduction of each individual give-back. I believe the actual figure when the whole package is considered is closer to 1850, which, coincidentally or not, just about equals the number of TWA FA''s left. 2700 people on OVL''s also sounds a bit high, and I think it includes those coming back on May 1. The furloughs effective Apr 30 already take those people into account.
It remains a mystery just how many on OVL''s will elect to continue under the new conditions, where there is no retirement credit, no medical coverage, no sick leave accrual and no vacation accrual. So far, 100% of the one person I''ve spoken to intends to remain on her leave as she has another job and doesn''t need the insurance. The other alternatives are, of course, returning to the line or quitting. Beth Mack (head honcha in STL) has said numerous times that the generous OVL''s literally cut attrition in half systemwide in the couple of years they''ve been available. So maybe it isn''t such a reach to expect a number of people to quit over this.
Another factor is the LLC aircraft. So far I''ve heard nothing about grounding the fleet, although nothing would surprise me these days. And I''ve heard nothing about what AA would do with the TWA pilots not yet AA trained yet not subject to furlough.
And the work rules will take time to implement, and more importantly, time to take effect.
All of the above is not meant to be argumentative; just meant to expand on your thoughts a little. The thought of 5000 furlough notices going out simultaneously seems highly unlikely to me. I think it will be 300-500 every couple of months as the company figures out just what it intends to do. This delay may allow attrition and the economy to catch up a little and grant some a reprieve from furlough.
MK