OK, again, where we left off was a relatively good CASM, ex-fuel, based on a big number of new mainlne ASM's... roughly 8% more (+10% per comments from BBB in announcing the TP - 2% on the basis of returned A319's).
However, according to this info, dug up by Boeing Boy, mainline ASMs for the year is only assumed up 2%:
So, if we generalize the 2% annual increase in ASM's to be equal to a 2% increase for each quarter compared to the year-ago quarter, I can calculate a new CASM, ex-fuel as follows:
Same costs, ex-fuel: $1,090mil
ASM's: 13,713 mil ASMs + 2% = 13,987 mil ASM's
CASM ex-fuel = 7.79cents (LUV was 6.22 cents, AWA and Air Tran at 6.00 cents, and jetBlue at 4.74cents)
Fuel constant at 2.17cents/ASM
CASM with fuel constant: 9.96
Thus, US Airways CASM is comparable to CO and AMR, more so than an LCC. Which is still a remarkable acheivement, but not what we were promised. Also, that assumes that CO and AMR do not make any strides in reducing their CASM over the next year...
Lastly, my best guess at a RASM figure was 10.12cents. This included a 7% decline in RASM due to the DAL fare restructure, on the basis of published reports. Although, I have no idea if this is true or true in the sense of a long-term trend.... But, if you go with this, its a profit of 0.16cents/ASM, or $22mil.
These numbers are still "mainline" US Airways only, and would obviously be impacted by a number of factors like fuel, competitor moves, the real impact of DAL's fare restructure, etc.
However, according to this info, dug up by Boeing Boy, mainline ASMs for the year is only assumed up 2%:
So, if we generalize the 2% annual increase in ASM's to be equal to a 2% increase for each quarter compared to the year-ago quarter, I can calculate a new CASM, ex-fuel as follows:
Same costs, ex-fuel: $1,090mil
ASM's: 13,713 mil ASMs + 2% = 13,987 mil ASM's
CASM ex-fuel = 7.79cents (LUV was 6.22 cents, AWA and Air Tran at 6.00 cents, and jetBlue at 4.74cents)
Fuel constant at 2.17cents/ASM
CASM with fuel constant: 9.96
Thus, US Airways CASM is comparable to CO and AMR, more so than an LCC. Which is still a remarkable acheivement, but not what we were promised. Also, that assumes that CO and AMR do not make any strides in reducing their CASM over the next year...
Lastly, my best guess at a RASM figure was 10.12cents. This included a 7% decline in RASM due to the DAL fare restructure, on the basis of published reports. Although, I have no idea if this is true or true in the sense of a long-term trend.... But, if you go with this, its a profit of 0.16cents/ASM, or $22mil.
These numbers are still "mainline" US Airways only, and would obviously be impacted by a number of factors like fuel, competitor moves, the real impact of DAL's fare restructure, etc.
