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Before beginning, I want to let everyone know that I do not work for, nor have a financial interest in (other than the tickets for going home for Christmas), any airline.
That out of the way, I'd like to take a break from the Labor-Management bashing of the past few months and pose a question about Northwest's long-term future (let's please leave out any comments about if NWA has a future; for the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume that they do).
Northwest's Pacific routes (particularly the NRT hub) have historically been one of their most important assets. However, I see several dark clouds on the horizon.
* More U.S. cities gaining non-stop service to points beyond Japan, particularly China (e.g. the recent route awards to AA & CO).
* The opening of Haneda's fourth runway in 2009, and subsequent initiation of non-stop services to regional destinations in Asia (NWA currently carries approximately 10% of Japan-origin travelers)
IMO, both of these developments have the potential to dramatically lessen the importance of the NRT hub. U.S.-origin passengers will choose to take non-stop flights to Asia (avoiding connections in one of Northwest's U.S. hubs and NRT), and Japanese travelers will relish the opportunity to avoid the 90-minute drive to Narita. In addition, the departure times required to feed NRT-outbound flights (particularly departures to the U.S.) make them less-than-desirable for Asian travelers. Who wants to get up at 2:30am to catch NWA's 6:00am SIN-NRT flight?
If this is indeed the case, Northwest faces some tough decisions about both route structure and fleet in the years ahead. The 787 will certainly allow non-stop services from DTW to most Asian cities (I think DTW-SIN is even possible), but the rest of the fleet is almost entirely geared toward the NRT hub.
Will these developments seriously affect the viability of the NRT hub? If so, how should NWA proceed?
That out of the way, I'd like to take a break from the Labor-Management bashing of the past few months and pose a question about Northwest's long-term future (let's please leave out any comments about if NWA has a future; for the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume that they do).
Northwest's Pacific routes (particularly the NRT hub) have historically been one of their most important assets. However, I see several dark clouds on the horizon.
* More U.S. cities gaining non-stop service to points beyond Japan, particularly China (e.g. the recent route awards to AA & CO).
* The opening of Haneda's fourth runway in 2009, and subsequent initiation of non-stop services to regional destinations in Asia (NWA currently carries approximately 10% of Japan-origin travelers)
IMO, both of these developments have the potential to dramatically lessen the importance of the NRT hub. U.S.-origin passengers will choose to take non-stop flights to Asia (avoiding connections in one of Northwest's U.S. hubs and NRT), and Japanese travelers will relish the opportunity to avoid the 90-minute drive to Narita. In addition, the departure times required to feed NRT-outbound flights (particularly departures to the U.S.) make them less-than-desirable for Asian travelers. Who wants to get up at 2:30am to catch NWA's 6:00am SIN-NRT flight?
If this is indeed the case, Northwest faces some tough decisions about both route structure and fleet in the years ahead. The 787 will certainly allow non-stop services from DTW to most Asian cities (I think DTW-SIN is even possible), but the rest of the fleet is almost entirely geared toward the NRT hub.
Will these developments seriously affect the viability of the NRT hub? If so, how should NWA proceed?
