Oil Heading Lower...

[767jetz]

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on the direction of oil prices, the strengthening of the Dollar, and if this will change United's course?

If this trend continues we could see $100 oil by summer's end. Could that mean "mega merger time" once again? Will UA reverse course on their fleet plan and keep some of the airplanes it now wants to park? Will UA place an order for new aircraft? At what price would it make sense to start hedging?

My crystal ball is coming up blank. How about yours?

 

[BugWash]

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on the direction of oil prices, the strengthening of the Dollar, and if this will change United's course?

If this trend continues we could see $100 oil by summer's end. Could that mean "mega merger time" once again? Will UA reverse course on their fleet plan and keep some of the airplanes it now wants to park? Will UA place an order for new aircraft? At what price would it make sense to start hedging?

My crystal ball is coming up blank. How about yours?

My husband and I were discussing this a few days ago. He thinks the company will still park all of the airplanes. If the NW/DAL deal goes through, which it looks like it will, then even with lower priced oil it would make it easier for UAL/CAL later on. I guess the main question for that would be, if oil keeps declining, what would be in it for Tilton. Would he get his big payout to leave? If not probably no merger and UAL is stuck with him.

But who knows? I still think the rest of the year is going to be tricky. Let's hope Bush doesn't do anything stupid to screw with things.....like get trigger happy with Iran. The fact that McCain's buddy said a terrorist attack would do his campaign good makes me nervous too.

Oy. Time will tell.

 

[FWAAA]

I don't see UA ordering new airplanes until profits roll in; didn't Tilton say something like that the other day?

I also think the fleet reductions and capacity cuts will happen no matter what, since that should have been done in 2002-03. Mergers/consolidation will continue, since five legacy airlines is still too many.

We should have nuked Iran in late January, 1981 once the hostages were released. Now, the Israelis will probably do it for us.

 

[UAL_TECH]

We should have nuked Iran in late January, 1981 once the hostages were released. Now, the Israelis will probably do it for us.

FWAAA,

If you keep this up, you are going to be restricted to the 'Cooler'... 😛

B) xUT

 

[casual rat]

I wonder how we're going to fly to PHX in the summer when it's over 116 degrees...Airbus doesn't operate when it gets too hot--737s do though. Seems like the powers that be overlook operational necessities quite often.

 

[AIRBORN1]

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on the direction of oil prices, the strengthening of the Dollar, and if this will change United's course?

If this trend continues we could see $100 oil by summer's end. Could that mean "mega merger time" once again? Will UA reverse course on their fleet plan and keep some of the airplanes it now wants to park? Will UA place an order for new aircraft? At what price would it make sense to start hedging?

My crystal ball is coming up blank. How about yours?

I think that United will still merge with CAL.. We have no Choice..... United is giving up domestic flying and will be a long haul airline even more now. United will not order any narrow body aircraft and only buy wide body for any new routes to middle east or Africa or International. Once we do merge later we will get some domestic traffic back. I noticed today that everyone in first class on my flight from ORD-DCA was connecting on USAIR to FLL and West Palm. I also noted today all 8 of my first class passengers were on full fare tickets.. Probably because coach was oversold and First was the only thing left to buy to get to DCA to connect to Florida.
So United is going to just use CAL and USAIR to connect instead of flying the routes.

Aircraft will be cheapier now to buy since so many are available now. Today,,, United said they were considering not taken the 42 airbus and lose the deposit of 91million dollars. So they have a plan we all just don't what's next. We do know that Tilton is getting rid of pilots and staff at both CAL and UAL to make the merge even better at a later date by getting rid of all the 737. United over did it .

 

[767jetz]

With Gustav now history and oil prices that failed to rally in the face of a strong storm threatening our gulf coast oil supply, one has to ask the question... has the speculative bubble finally burst in oil futures?

Business Week seems to think so:

Oil at $80 a Barrel?

How airlines respond will be very interesting.

 

[BugWash]

With Gustav now history and oil prices that failed to rally in the face of a strong storm threatening our gulf coast oil supply, one has to ask the question... has the speculative bubble finally burst in oil futures?

Business Week seems to think so:

Oil at $80 a Barrel?

How airlines respond will be very interesting.

I like to think that two things will happen at UA.

1. They will still park most of the 737's, and order some new planes. Fewer lay-offs.

2. Glenn Tilton will get kicked to the curb.

 

[767jetz]

I like to think that two things will happen at UA.

1. They will still park most of the 737's, and order some new planes. Fewer lay-offs.

2. Glenn Tilton will get kicked to the curb.

Sounds good to me!

 

[N421LV]

I wonder how we're going to fly to PHX in the summer when it's over 116 degrees...Airbus doesn't operate when it gets too hot--737s do though. Seems like the powers that be overlook operational necessities quite often.

There's a PHX-based airline out there that operates lots of Airbuses. My guess is UAL just has not bought the performance data for above 116F.

 

[mga707]

There's a PHX-based airline out there that operates lots of Airbuses. My guess is UAL just has not bought the performance data for above 116F.

I believe the temp cut-off is 120F, not 116. PHX has had only ONE day since the late 1800s that exceeded that figure, in June of 1990 (122). Since then, official high temps have not exceeded 119 degrees.

 

[casual rat]

I pray Glenn et al get kicked to the curb--soon! New planes would be a nice addition as well. How many pilots flying in/around PHX on a regular basis experience hot brakes (delays) on their planes in the summer months? B-737 vs Airbus 320/319 specifically? Just curious of the ratio, not trying to prove any points...but I've been told Airbus brakes are more sensitive to heat than 737s are. 116 degrees was the figure quoted by an experienced former America West employee ...discuss!

 

[Borescope]

Oil isn't going to drop to much farther. The Rag H..ds will cut production to keep the price at the $100 / bbl level. IMO

This means no new airplanes and continued shrinking and no merger. The airline has to be profitable to bring employees back and buy new aircraft. Also, the main reason CAL didn't want to merge, was the balance sheet and the poor employee relations. If you remember, Tilton's BK exit plan was based on $50 oil. We won't see that price any time soon and as long as UA continues to lose money, there won't be a merger.

 

[767jetz]

We're almost there folks. Looks like OPEC's decision to cut production has not stopped oil's slide. Neither has 2 hurricanes that threatened the gulf of Mexico. Oil is flirting with the all important psychological barrier of $100.

Oil prices drop as dollar firms...

"New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October, slid 1.71 dollars to close at 100.87 dollars a barrel.

The New York contract fell to 100.10 dollars in intraday trade, approaching the 100-dollar threshold it had last crossed on April 1.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in October dropped 1.33 dollars to settle at 97.64 dollars a barrel on Thursday -- its lowest level since March 5."

 

[jimntx]

Prices have fallen back slightly...to $101.84--high so far today over $102. This does not sound like a major increase in prices despite the hurricane in the Gulf.

Bloomberg.com Energy Prices